Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
We have a 11-game NBA DFS slate set up for Wednesday. The NBA trade deadline is right around the corner, which makes monitoring news an even more crucial part of your daily DFS roster-making process. Playing a player who is scratched at the last second with an injury is bad but rostering someone who isn’t even on the team anymore feels even worse. Don’t fall asleep at the wheel.
Check out our quick look through all of Wednesday’s games.
(Make sure to check out all of our other awesome NBA tools, including the Odds Tracker (above), the Prop Shop, and starting lineups page.)
Detroit Pistons @ Indiana Pacers
IND -6, total: 218
The Pacers were without Myles Turner and Malcolm Brogdon Monday, and both will be questionable heading into Wednesday. With the two out Monday, Indiana started Edmond Sumner and Doug McDermott. While Sumner started, T.J. McConnell still logged 32 minutes and scored 28 fantasy points, but if Brogdon is out again, the veteran point guard is a viable option. With Brogdon off the floor this year, McConnell is sporting a massive 30% assist rate, while averaging a strong 1.13 fantasy points per minute in the split. Brogdon is still averaging a healthy 89.8 touches per game on the year, good for the fifth-most in the NBA, so his potential absence would result in plenty of ball-handling duties for McConnell, as well as Caris LeVert and Domantas Sabonis. LeVert would be a very strong option at $6,600 on DK, especially if Brogdon is out again. He is sporting a 25.5% usage rate with Brogdon off the floor since making his Pacers debut. Sabonis, meanwhile, obviously remains the top option, as he’s already averaging the second-most touches per game in the NBA (99.9). With both Brogdon and Turner off the court this season, Sabonis is sporting a 25% usage and rebounding rate.
For the Pistons, no one stands out as a high-end play, per usual. Mason Plumlee is back under $6,000 on DK and is coming off a strong outing. Over his last seven games, Plumlee has recorded five double-digit rebound games, while averaging a strong 17.7 rebounding chances per game during that stretch, good for the 12th-most in basketball. Jerami Grant, meanwhile, hasn’t shown too much of a ceiling as of late, which has him as a secondary play at best here. I will say, however, that Grant is still averaging the most spot-up points per game this season (6.9), while the Pacers are allowing the fourth-highest field goal percentage (41.9%) to spot-up shooters on the year, as well as the fifth-most points per game (30.6) and fourth-most points per possession (1.10) to the play type.
Boston Celtics @ Milwaukee Bucks
MIL -4.5, total: 230
We have some injury situations to monitor from this game. Giannis Antetokounmpo didn’t play Monday night with a knee injury but is questionable for this game. Pat Connaughton entered the starting lineup for the first time all season in Giannis’ absence, scoring 20 real points. Meanwhile, Bobby Portis posted another strong outing off the bench, scoring 18 points to go along with 10 rebounds and four assists in 25 minutes. With Giannis off the court this season, Portis sees his rebound rate climb to 35%, while averaging 1.12 fantasy points per minute in the split. He still isn’t a super safe play because his minutes likely won’t get to the 28-30 range, but he’s shown upside if he can play 25 minutes. Of course, Jrue Holiday and Khris Middleton are the premier plays from this team if Giannis is sidelined again. Holiday went off for 28 points and 14 assists in their last game, while Middleton scored 45 points. His usage rate of 30.8% was second on the team in their last game, behind only Brook Lopez (34.7%). The status of Giannis is clearly a huge piece of the puzzle that is this slate so keep your eyes peeled.
Jayson Tatum and Kemba Walker missed Monday's game, but both are expected to return to the lineup here. Jaylen Brown's usage rate was around 31% with both players out the other night, a number that likely comes down. Meanwhile, it is unlikely Robert Williams plays 28 minutes again, especially considering that game went to overtime and he actually started the extra period. We need to be careful with Marcus Smart here, as the Boston guard has been involved in some trade discussions over the last few days. If he is traded before this game tips off, it obviously just solidifies the usage and involvement of Walker, Brown and Tatum. This is a nice pace-up spot for the Celtics but with everyone likely active, no one really stands out as must-plays. Daniel Theis continues to produce with Tristan Thompson out but you would like to see his minutes up more toward the 30-plus mark.
Denver Nuggets @ Toronto Raptors
DEN -2, total: 222
The Raptors are a mess right now. They are losing games, watching their players get fined and having trade talks surrounding their franchise player. Kyle Lowry is one of the biggest names on the trade block right now, which makes rostering him in fantasy very risky. This is one of the first games of the slate, so we should know ahead of time. He’s a fine option, but my favorite player from this team is Fred VanVleet, who has logged 41 minutes in each of his last three games, scoring 42.5, 44.2 and 48.5 fantasy points during that span. VanVleet is averaging a solid 15.0 drives per game on the year, good for 15th in basketball. That could bode well for him tonight, facing a Denver team that is surrendering a 69.2% field goal percentage at the rim, the worst mark in all of basketball. I also think Pascal Siakam is slightly underpriced at $7,300 on DraftKings, while Denver ranks 28th against point forwards on the season, per our advanced DvP tool. Because all four are priced very fairly in a solid matchup, Lowry, VanVleet, Siakam and Norman Powell are all perfectly fine options here because they play 35-plus minutes in any competitive game. Finally, take a chance on Chris Boucher at your own risk.
The Nuggets are coming off the front end of a back-to-back and to be honest, the only players on my radar are Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray. Jokic is the best player in fantasy and has now recorded three triple-doubles over his last four contests.
Charlotte Hornets @ Houston Rockets
CHA -3.5, total: 225
Charlotte played their first game without rookie sensation LaMelo Ball Monday, winning a close game against the Spurs. Devonte' Graham returned to the starting five, but the production was rather underwhelming, as he scored just 21.2 fantasy points in 29 minutes of action. And despite the Hornets still having both Graham and Terry Rozier at the guard position, it was actually P.J. Washington who led this team in touches in that contest (91), and he recorded a stat line of 10 points, 13 rebounds, five assists and two blocks. With Ball and Cody Zeller sidelined, Washington sees a 21% usage rate and 23% rebounding rate, while averaging a fantasy point per minute. LaMelo is an aggressive rebounder, ranking top-10 among all guards in rebounding chances per game, so his absence should boost the peripherals for a lot of these players. Gordon Hayward’s peripherals were up last game and while he’s pushing $8,000 on DK, this is a spot to deploy him. Sure, the Rockets finally won a game, but this is still a weak defense, as Houston is coughing up a league-leading 23.6 transition points per contest. Hayward, meanwhile, is averaging 4.6 transition points per game this season, good for the 14th-most in the NBA. However, that bodes even better for Rozier, whose 5.8 points per game off transition are the fourth-most in the league, while also sporting a healthy 25% frequency rate off the play type. Opponents are getting out on the break 18.4% of the time against Houston this season, the highest rate in the league. Charlotte is a very enticing team this evening.
With Christian Wood playing in the second end of a back-to-back, I gained a lot more confidence in his health. And with that out of the way, you have to like him tonight against this Charlotte interior defense. The Hornets are allowing the second-most rebounds per game to opposing centers on the season (16.7), while they also rank dead last against stretch centers, according to our advanced DVP tool. Wood isn’t shy when it comes to spotting up from three, which could bode well for him here, as the Hornets allow more spot-up points per game than any other team in the league this season (37.9). We also have to keep an eye on Victor Oladipo, who is another player with trade speculation circling around him. Between that and John Wall still being too cheap at $7,600, I prefer Wall.
Cleveland Cavaliers @ Chicago Bulls
CHI -5.5, total: 218
Collin Sexton had a tremendous matchup with the Kings the other night and didn’t deliver. He has another fantastic matchup here, facing a Bulls team that is coughing up a league-worst 23.9 points per game to opposing ball handlers out of the pick and roll this season. Chicago also ranks 29th against primary ball handlers, 27th against scorers and 22nd against crafty finishers. All of that also makes Darius Garland interesting at a fair $6,600 price tag on DraftKings, while Jarrett Allen is still worth a look in tournaments at $7,600. We saw JaVale McGee have a very nice game off the bench last time out, but Allen is still starting and playing plenty of minutes. The Bulls, meanwhile, rank 28th against rebounders, while Allen is averaging the seventh-most rebounding chances per game over the last 15 outings (19.2).
Chicago, meanwhile, continues to keep both Tomas Satoransky and Thaddeus Young in the starting lineup, while Coby White and Wendell Carter continue to come off the bench. Satoransky has been fairly productive as of late and is still a viable option at just $4,600 on DK. Against a struggling Cavaliers defense, Satoransky could easily get you 30 fantasy points here. Of course, this team runs through Zach LaVine, who is still too cheap at $8,500, especially in this prime spot. Cleveland hasn’t been very efficient when it comes to defending opposing pick and roll ball handlers, coughing up the third-most points per possession (0.94) and second-worst field goal percentage (46.6%) off the play type. LaVine, meanwhile, ranks fourth in the NBA in points per game as the primary pick and roll ball handler (11.3).
Phoenix Suns @ Orlando Magic
PHO -9.5, total: 215
This definitely isn’t my favorite game of the slate, as it features two of the slower teams in basketball. And on top of that, both Aaron Gordon and Evan Fournier of the Magic have been subjects of trade talk as of late, making them risky options in fantasy, on top of already being in a tough matchup against a good Suns defense. The only player from Orlando that is even slightly on my radar is Nikola Vucevic, who has as high of a floor as nearly anyone in fantasy right now. He’s scored at least 45 fantasy points in nine of his last 10 games, while sporting a 33% usage and 37% rebounding rate over the last two weeks of play.
For the Suns, both Chris Paul and Devin Booker are fine options at their price, while Paul is coming off a strong triple-double against the Lakers. Orlando ranks 23rd against dimers and 25th against primary ball handlers this season. They are also coughing up the third-most points per game off screens on the year (5.5), which could benefit Booker, whose 2.3 points per game off screens are good for the eighth-most in the NBA. He is shooting 47.4% off the play type. Finally, Deandre Ayton’s price tag has plummeted all the way down to $5,800 on DK and while this isn’t the greatest spot for fantasy, that is an insanely cheap price tag for someone with Ayton’s potential.
Memphis Grizzlies @ Oklahoma City Thunder
MEM -5, total: 219
This is the third consecutive game where Jonas Valanciunas finds himself in an awesome spot. He’s scored at least 38.5 fantasy points in each of his last three games and while Al Horford will be back in the Oklahoma City lineup, this is still a matchup to attack. The Thunder are surrendering the third-most points per possession (1.04) and second-worst field goal percentage (55.0%) to the post this season. JoVal, meanwhile, is averaging 3.8 post-up points per game this season, good for the 11th-most in the league. Oklahoma City also ranks 25th in the league against skilled centers, per our advanced DVP tool. Meanwhile, Ja Morant has been a bit up-and-down as of late but is still very much worth a look at just $7,500 on DraftKings. The Thunder have also struggled to protect the rim, coughing up the third-highest field goal percentage from within four feet of the basket this season (67.2%). We’ll see if Morant and his 19.4 drives per game (third-most) can take advantage of that here.
I’m not entirely sure why Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s price tag didn’t move after scoring over 47 fantasy points, but it makes him a very strong play once again. That is just too cheap for a player who ranks sixth in the NBA in time of possession per game this season (7.5), while his 5.90 seconds per touch are good enough for the fourth-most in basketball. Outside of SGA, I don’t hate Luguentz Dort at $5,000, who will return to the lineup for this game.
Dallas Mavericks @ Minnesota Timberwolves
DAL -8, total: 229.5
Karl-Anthony Towns is coming off a monster game and has finally returned to the $10,000 price point. This is another advantageous spot for him, facing a Dallas defense that is surrendering the fourth-most post-up points per game (6.3), as well as the sixth-most points per possession off the play type (0.99). Towns, meanwhile, is averaging 4.7 post-up points per game on the season, good for the fourth-most in the NBA. The volume will continue to be there for Anthony Edwards, but on an 11-game slate in a middling matchup, I don’t think I’m comfortable paying $7,600 for him. And because Towns and Edwards are dominating the usage for this Minnesota team right now, no one else is on my radar, especially since the upside is severely capped.
Speaking of dominating usage, Luka Doncic and Kristaps Porzingis continue to do that for the Mavericks. Of course, it has mainly been Luka, who is sporting a 37.6% usage rate over the last two weeks of play. Doncic is always in play and I don’t think I need to sell you on him but don’t overlook Porzingis in this spot. Minnesota has also been a poor post-up defense this season, allowing the third-most points per game off the play type (6.8). Porzingis, meanwhile, is averaging 4.0 post-up points per game on the year, good for the eighth-most in basketball. And if you like boring plays, Dorian Finney-Smith is back in the lineup and normally plays around 35 minutes in close games. He’s just $4,100 on DraftKings and could walk into some solid production against a poor Timberwolves defense.
Los Angeles Clippers @ San Antonio Spurs
LAC -6, total: 220
Both Kawhi Leonard and Paul George were struggling through the first half or so of their last game, but Leonard picked it up in the final quarter, finishing with nearly 48 fantasy points. George, however, disappointed, finishing with just 27.2 fantasy points. He is still cheap, but on an 11-game slate, he’s nowhere close to my favorite play on the board. Leonard is fine at $9,000 and he is always, always overlooked in tournaments so if he pops off for one of those 60 fantasy point games, you’ll find yourself in good shape. The Clippers will once again be without Serge Ibaka, which keeps Ivica Zubac in consideration, though his minutes still haven’t climbed as much as we’d like. However, Zubac is sporting an awesome 34% rebounding rate with Ibaka off the floor this season, while averaging just over a fantasy point per minute in the split. And if the Spurs go small in this game, Marcus Morris could flirt with 30 minutes (he played 27 last game) and could thrive against a Spurs team that ranks bottom-six in points per possession and field goal percentage against spot-up shooters on the season. Meanwhile, Morris is averaging 6.3 spot-up points per game on the year, good for the fourth-most in basketball.
For the Spurs, no one stands out as core plays, really. I think DeMar DeRozan is fine at $8,400 and while the peripherals (especially assists) have been up again this season, I do prefer many other players around his price tag. Meanwhile, Dejounte Murray has a pretty safe floor at his $7,400 price tag and the matchup is enhanced with Patrick Beverley still out for the Clippers.
Atlanta Hawks @ Sacramento Kings
ATL -3, total: 236.5
This is clearly a game to target for fantasy, featuring a near-237-point total. The pace should be there, while both defenses certainly have their weak points. Let’s start with the Hawks, who are another team amidst trade discussions. John Collins has been rumored to be on the block and a handful of teams are interested. Whenever Clint Capela is healthy, Collins isn’t on my radar anyway and while the matchup is very, very good, I likely won’t get to Collins here unless Danilo Gallinari is ruled out with his knee issue. Gallinari has been taking power forward minutes away from Collins since returning from his initial injury. Capela, meanwhile, is $100 cheaper than Collins and is a walking double-double, ranking inside the top-10 in basketball in the department. Capela’s 23.2 rebounding chances per game still lead the league, while the Kings rank 29th against rebounders and 22nd against rim protectors, per our advanced DVP. The Kings are also allowing the third-most points per game off putbacks this season (7.0), while Capela’s 4.0 putback points per game lead the league. Trae Young, meanwhile, is in an incredible spot, facing a Sacramento team that ranks 29th against dimers, 30th against scorers and 27th against primary ball handlers on the season. Still under $9,000 on DraftKings, Young projects as an elite play this evening.
Meanwhile, you have to feel good about De'Aaron Fox on the other side of the game. Young is one of the worst defenders in all of basketball and this game could easily become a track meet. I also think Tyrese Haliburton is still too cheap at $5,700, as he continues to start and play huge minutes with Marvin Bagley sidelined. The same can be said for Richaun Holmes, who has been playing some great basketball as of late and will continue to have to play huge minutes, especially against the duo of Collins and Capela.
Brooklyn Nets @ Utah Jazz
UTA -10, total: 230
Rudy Gobert was questionable heading into Monday’s game against the Bulls. He ended up playing and playing well, going for 21 points, 10 rebounds and nine blocks. That’s right. Nine. He’s been fantastic all year long and gets another good matchup with a Brooklyn team that ranks 27th against rebounders this season. The Nets are also coughing up the seventh-most points per game to opposing centers on the year (23.4). Meanwhile, Donovan Mitchell has been awesome as of late, scoring 30, 31 and 42 points over his last three showings. Joe Ingles has also been outstanding over his last three games but during that span, he is shooting an insane 18-of-22 from beyond the arc, a number that certainly isn’t sustainable. My interest really comes down to Gobert and Mitchell in this spot, especially in tournaments.
For the Nets, James Harden was questionable prior to Tuesday’s game, but he ultimately suited up. Is it possible that Brooklyn sits him down on the second end of a back-to-back? Sure. But with Kyrie Irving and Kevin Durant still unavailable, it seems a bit unlikely. And with Harden’s insane usage right now, he is a premiere play against anyone in the league. Over the last 10 games, Harden is second in the league in touches per game (100.4), while averaging a league-leading 9.6 minutes of possession per game during that span. With Irving still away from the team, Bruce Brown is worth a look, while the same can be said for Joe Harris, who remains just under $6,000 on DraftKings. Finally, Jeff Green remains in play with Durant out, while Blake Griffin is still being eased into the rotation.
