Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
Thursday night’s four-game NBA slate is a bit ugly for DFS. We have a depleted Clippers team, a potentially depleted Heat team and a Portland team that remains without two of its best three players. There is also a game in Detroit that could be rather one-sided, so it’s safe to say that this isn’t my favorite slate of the year.
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Portland Trail Blazers @ Houston Rockets
HOU -4.5, total: 227.5
Portland will remain without CJ McCollum and Jusuf Nurkic for this game, while Robert Covington will miss his second straight game with a concussion. Rodney Hood, who missed Monday’s game, will be back. On this four-game slate, there honestly isn’t a ton of security, which is why Damian Lillard makes for an elite play once again. He is sporting a 31.5% usage rate with both McCollum and Nurkic off the floor this season, while averaging 1.40 fantasy points per minute. Over his last five games, Lillard has been dominating the workload, averaging 89.6 touches per game (sixth-most), 8.9 minutes of possession (third-most) and 5.96 seconds per touch (fourth-most). This game has a juicy total and both teams leave much to be desired on the defensive end, making Lillard a fantastic option once again. Meanwhile, the price tag keeps climbing on Enes Kanter, who is coming off a 23-rebound, 51.7-fantasy-point outing. He is dominating the glass, sporting a whopping 47% rebounding rate with Nurkic off the floor this season. Now he gets to face a Houston defense that is coughing up 7.7 points per game to the post, the most in the NBA, which not only helps Kanter but also Carmelo Anthony, who has been starting in Covington’s absence. Anthony is also sporting a healthy 28.7% frequency rate off post-ups this season, good for the fifth-highest rate in all of basketball. Outside of Lillard and Kanter, Melo is the most trustworthy option from this Portland team. Finally, you can take a shot on Anfernee Simons, who should log 23-25 minutes in this game and sees a 2.5% usage bump with McCollum and Nurkic off the floor, while Hood makes sense, too, who logged 25 and 27 minutes before missing Monday’s game.
For Houston, Christian Wood will return, which should take us off DeMarcus Cousins at an elevated price tag. It’ll be interesting to see if Cousins’ minutes increase based off his recent play, but the Rockets just haven’t played Wood and Boogie together this season, as the two have been on the court at the same time just six minutes all year long. I think there is a chance Wood’s minutes drop by a few here, but he’d still be worth a look against a weak Portland defense and would remain the safest bet from this team, especially with John Wall potentially being limited again. Victor Oladipo has taken a step backward over his last two games and isn’t too intriguing to me here, especially if Wall plays more minutes, while Eric Gordon is a bit too expensive at $6,600 on DraftKings.
Los Angeles Lakers @ Detroit Pistons
LAL -9.5, total: 214.5
Keep an eye on this game, because I think there is a chance Anthony Davis sits. His knee was bothering him Wednesday night in a hard-fought game and on the second end of a back-to-back, the Lakers could rest him. If that is the case, it makes paying up for LeBron James a lot more enticing, as the game should stay closer, forcing James, who is playing a career-low in minutes, to play more. With Davis off the floor this season, James is sporting a 36.6% usage rate to go along with a 24% rebounding rate and 23% assist rate. I prefer Lillard over LeBron at that price but if Davis is ruled out, it becomes a lot more interesting. Meanwhile, Markieff Morris started the last time Davis missed a game and played 29 minutes, making him a viable minimum price play if Davis sits, while Kyle Kuzma would get a bump. Of course, if Davis suits up, he is worth a look at just $8,900 on DraftKings, one of the lowest price tags I have ever seen him at.
No one on the Pistons really stands out to me. Derrick Rose has been resting on back-to-backs as of late, making him a candidate to sit tonight. That would solidify the usage and minutes for Delon Wright, who has been pretty good as of late, averaging nearly 33 fantasy points per game over his last six outings. Jerami Grant has obviously been the key cog of this Detroit offense but I’d honestly only consider him as a run-back option if you are looking to stack this game. Finally, Mason Plumlee actually isn’t the worst option at center, as he’s played 28 minutes in consecutive games and the Pistons might need his size against this Lakers frontcourt.
Los Angeles Clippers @ Miami Heat
MIA -4.5, total: 215.5
The Clippers will once again be without Kawhi Leonard, Paul George and Patrick Beverley for this game. In their last game, Los Angeles started Terance Mann, Reggie Jackson, Luke Kennard, Nicolas Batum and Serge Ibaka. But as we talked about, DraftKings priced these guys up ahead of the slate because we already had the news. Mann is probably my favorite player from this team, as he started at point guard and is a sneaky good rebounder, sporting a strong 27% rebounding rate with both Leonard and George off the floor this season. He’s not a particularly high usage player but he played 34 minutes last game and should be right around that range again here. Jackson had the best game, but a $7,000 price tag is pretty scary. If this were a larger slate, I’d have zero interest, but mixing in Jackson, Mann and Ibaka makes some sense. Ibaka was second on the team in usage last game behind Lou Williams, who posted a usage rate north of 31% but once again didn’t play huge minutes. He’s clearly not 100% so even in this scenario, I’d only consider him in tournaments.
The Heat are tough to analyze right now. Tyler Herro and Goran Dragic are both once again questionable. If they both play, I honestly don’t think I’ll play anyone on Miami outside of Bam Adebayo in a lineup or two, though his price is up. Kendrick Nunn would be viable again if both Herro and Dragic sit again, as he played 38 minutes Wednesday night, while KZ Okpala returned to the starting lineup and played 27 minutes. He is minimum salary on DraftKings.
Golden State Warriors @ Phoenix Suns
PHO -1, total: 227.5
Deandre Ayton was one of my favorite plays of the slate Wednesday night, and that didn’t work out, as he finished with just 22.5 fantasy points. It was a poor game from the Suns and their price tags have jumped up for this game. If choosing my favorite player from Phoenix, however, it would be Chris Paul at $8,000, coming off his second-best game of the season, both coming with Devin Booker out, which isn’t too surprising. Booker should be viewed as highly questionable for this game, while Cameron Payne, who missed Wednesday’s game, is also questionable. Paul’s usage rate jumps up by around four% with Booker off the floor this season, while averaging 1.24 fantasy points per minute to go along with a 28% assist rate. He touched the ball 103 times on Wednesday night, while possessing the ball for a gaudy 11.7 minutes. Meanwhile, assuming Booker remains out, I still have no issue with Cameron Johnson at $5,300, though Mikal Bridges scares me a bit at $6,000 on DraftKings because he is still a low usage player, sporting a 16.8% usage rate with Booker off the floor this season. His minutes are absolutely locked in but that doesn’t always lead to production. Finally, I think you can certainly go back to Ayton here, especially with Phoenix finding themselves in a massive pace-up spot against a Golden State team that ranks third in the NBA in pace.
Golden State remains a pretty simple team for me. Play Stephen Curry if you want, especially whenever he is under $10,000 on DraftKings. This isn’t a particularly great matchup, but Curry is just so involved and offers you plenty of security on this slate. Meanwhile, the Suns are actually coughing up the fifth-most points per game to opposing shooters off screens this season, the fifth-most in basketball. That bodes well for Curry, who is averaging 3.9 points per game off screens this season, good for the second-most in the NBA. Outside of that, I really don’t like the Warriors here. Draymond Green doesn’t have much of a ceiling and his price tag has climbed, while Kevon Looney continues to start over James Wiseman. Andrew Wiggins would be the next most logical option from this team and if I were to play anyone from the Warriors outside of Curry, it would be him.
