Prime-Time First TD Bets — Sunday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
The NHL schedule has 14 games Thursday, so it’s a loaded DFS player pool with plenty of avenues to differentiating lineups and targeting values. The Avalanche are the largest favorites on the docket with Dallas also a huge favorite. Two North Division matchups have the highest over/under totals, as the Ottawa-Vancouver and Toronto-Edmonton contests project to be high scoring. It’s also worth highlighting the Tampa Bay-Carolina game features two teams coming off lengthy layoffs, especially the Hurricanes.
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Pittsburgh Penguins at Boston Bruins (-125)
The Bruins held on to top the Penguins 3-2 in overtime Tuesday. The Penguins rallied with two third-period goals, and Jason Zucker was in on both goals. After recording just a single assist through the first six games, the five-time 20-goal scorer had his best showing of the season. Zucker registered four shots and six attempts. Linemates Evgeni Malkin and Kasperi Kapanen also found the scoresheet, and the trio should be able to provide consistent offense. Malkin has now found the scoresheet in three of the past four games, after all.
The big news out of Boston is Jake DeBrusk will miss Thursday’s game with a lower-body injury. The Bruins had their lines in a blender after DeBrusk left Tuesday after just 3:30 of ice time. However, Matt Grzelcyk appears likely to return to the lineup after missing Tuesday’s contest with a leg injury. Craig Smith is projected to skate with Patrice Bergeron and Brad Marchand atop the depth chart. It’s worth noting Boston has just six five-on-five goals through six games this season.
New York Rangers at Buffalo Sabres (-109)
The Rangers allowed 11 high-danger scoring chances at five-on-five during Tuesday’s 3-2 loss to Buffalo, and considering the Sabres only attempted 32 five-on-five shots, it was clearly a quality over quantity attack. Additionally, Buffalo was stingy and surrendered just six high-danger chances on 31 five-on-five shot attempts. It’s worth noting that the Blueshirts iced 10 different line combinations Tuesday, so double-checking Thursday’s projected combinations will be important. Head coach Dan Quinn didn’t commit to any lineup projections Wednesday.
Everything begins with Buffalo’s No. 1 line most nights for the Sabres, and Jack Eichel, Taylor Hall and Sam Reinhart now have 101:22 of shared ice time. They’ve scored 4.74 goals and generated 13.61 high-danger scoring chances per 60 minutes with an 8.99 shooting percentage. There’s probably room for slight improvement, but it would be surprising if the Rangers didn’t play their most complete game of the season. New York is 1-4-1 with four consecutive losses and in last place in the East Division, after all.
Philadelphia Flyers (-159) at New Jersey Devils
Philadelphia won Tuesday’s contest 5-3 and generated 20 high-danger scoring chances — a dominant performance. The power play, the Nolan Patrick–Claude Giroux–Travis Konecny line and defenseman Ivan Provorov did most of the damage. Additionally, after allowing just two five-on-five goals through its first five games, New Jersey surrendered three Tuesday. It’s unlikely the Devils return to their defensively stout way over the long haul, and even expecting them to slow down Philadelphia again is probably asking too much.
Sticking with the Devils’ team defense, with Boston struggling to score to start the season, and the Islanders also lacking offensive punch, favorable early season matchups has probably had a larger impact on New Jersey’s low goals against than their own play. It’s also hard to imagine the Devils holding opposing teams in check with Mackenzie Blackwood still in COVID-19 protocol. Even if Blackwood is back Thursday, it’s probably hard to start him with confidence.
New York Islanders (-137) at Washington Capitals
This could be a long night for the Capitals if one or both of Nicklas Backstrom and Lars Eller can’t play Thursday. Both centers were unable to finish Tuesday’s 3-2 win over the Islanders. Until their respective statuses are known, it’s hard to project how the Caps will fare. Still, it’s worth noting that with Washington’s four Russians out of the lineup the past two games, Justin Schultz has capitalized on an increased role. He’s piled up two goals, two power-play assists and nine shots while logging 22:22 per game (3:59 with the man advantage).
Similarly, just how favorable of a matchup it will be for the Islanders is up in the air. With a depleted roster, New York should cruise to victory, and Semyon Varlarmov should be positioned to have another strong showing. Even with Tuesday’s loss, the veteran sports a .966 save percentage and 1.00 GAA through four games. Additionally, the Mathew Barzal–Anders Lee–Jordan Eberle could also have another strong showing after attempting 15 shots and generating five high-danger scoring chances through just 9:01 of five-on-five ice time Tuesday.
Tampa Bay Lightning (-143) at Carolina Hurricanes
Carolina hasn’t played since Jan. 18, whereas Tampa Bay has been off since Saturday. The Hurricanes will have Jordan Staal back in the lineup, and the four-day break could provide enough time for Erik Cernak to return from an upper-body injury for the Lightning. Having both teams at full health would be optimal because these are arguably the two best teams in the Central Division.
With just seven games played between them, the statistical breakdown doesn’t highlight a lot. After all, both teams are high-end possession clubs at five-on-five. The Hurricanes are probably the more balanced club, whereas the Lightning definitely have the goaltending advantage. With so many unknowns and the lengthy layoffs for both teams, it’s a tough handicap.
Florida Panthers at Columbus Blue Jackets (-117)
After a slow start, Cam Atkinson scored his first goal of the season to extend his point streak to three games. Additionally, recently acquired Jack Roslovic is projected to skate with Atkinson at five-on-five. The Blue Jackets are a respectable 2-2-3 to start the campaign and lead the Central Division, but there’s reason to believe they’re probably still underachieving to a degree. Roslovic should provide a mini boost, but the big help will arrive once Patrik Laine is finished his quarantine. In the meantime, goal scoring could remain a shortcoming. Columbus has 18 tallies through seven games.
The Panthers are 3-0 and have won consecutive games in extra time. There have also been 22 goals through the three games, so Florida is playing a high-scoring style to start the year. There are 10 Panthers with at least two points through the first three games, after all. Additionally, Florida doubled Columbus in shot attempts (44 to 21) at five-on-five Tuesday while the Blue Jackets to just two high-danger scoring chances. While it wouldn’t be surprising to see more offensive opportunities from the Blue Jackets on Thursday, this could also set up as a soft spot for Sergei Bobrovsky if he’s facing primarily low-danger chances.
Calgary Flames at Montreal Canadiens (-129)
The Canadiens have won four of six games and sport a 4-0-2 record after beginning the season on a six-game road trip. They’ve been off since Saturday and are now set to make their season debut against Calgary. Montreal paces the league in goals per 60 minutes (4.72) while allowing just 2.77 and also boasting a fourth-ranked 54.7 Corsi For percentage at five-on-five. Rested and in top form, Montreal checks out as a tough matchup. They’ve also got nine skaters with at least four points through six games, which showcases a deep and balanced attack.
Calgary, meanwhile, enters following consecutive losses to the Maple Leafs. It’s encouraging to see Johnny Gaudreau and Sean Monahan leading the way offensively with seven points each, however, the rest of the Flames did little against Toronto. Unless there’s a more balanced offensive attack, the Flames are going to struggle to keep pace with the high-scoring style of the North Division. Jacob Markstrom hasn’t been strong, either. He’s sporting an underwhelming .911 save percentage and modest 0.91 goals saved above average through five starts.
Los Angeles Kings at Minnesota Wild (-159)
The Kings topped the Wild 2-1 Tuesday despite being doubled in high-danger scoring chances 12-6 at five-on-five. Additionally, Los Angeles’ top two lines skated to 29.6 Corsi For percentage at five-on-five, but interestingly it was Minnesota’s Joel Eriksson Ek–Jordan Greenway–Marcus Foligno line that drove possession with 15 shot attempts and six high-danger scoring chances and just one shot attempt allowed over 9:33 of ice time. The trio have generated 15.68 high-danger chances per hour for the season and could prove to be low-priced fliers to consider moving forward, especially if they continue to dominate possession and generate quality scoring opportunities.
After allowing the fewest high-danger scoring chances per 60 minutes at five-on-five last year, the Wild are at it again with the second fewest allowed to start this season. Additionally, they’re also generating the most high-danger scoring chances per hour to date, but an unsustainably low 6.45 shooting percentage has kept their offense in check. Look for the Wild to have a strong showing Thursday.
Detroit Red Wings at Dallas Stars (-205)
The Stars are ravaged by injuries, so it will be important to double-check their lineup ahead of Thursday’s game. The Red Wings could be in a favorable spot, as a result, but they’ve also got their own injury troubles. Most notably, Dylan Larkin missed Wednesday’s practice with an undisclosed injury. Detroit played Dallas tight Tuesday. The game went to overtime and both the shot attempts and high-danger chances were close. Dallas might be up against it to sweep the two-game miniseries.
Detroit’s best line in Tuesday’s loss was Anthony Mantha, Vladislav Namestnikov and Bobby Ryan. The trio attempted 13 shots while allowing just three, and they’d probably be the best targets from Detroit. Joe Pavelski, Denis Gurianov and John Klingberg have been the best producers for the Stars to start the season, and they should remain in a favorable spot with Detroit allowing 3.14 goals per game — seventh-most in the league.
San Jose Sharks at Colorado Avalanche (-245)
Colorado ran over San Jose 7-3 Tuesday and drove possession with a 62.6 Corsi For percentage at five-on-five. The Sharks actually did generate more high-danger scoring chances (14-10), but the Avalanche had the game in hand from the beginning. With Colorado huge favorites again and seeking its first mini-series sweep of the year after splitting their first three, another win is probably for the Avs.
Nathan MacKinnon owns a 6.7% shooting percentage for the year and has 14 shots — 28 attempts — during his current three-game goal drought, so look for him to have a strong showing Thursday. San Jose is also allowing 3.91 goals and 11.02 high-danger scoring chances per 60 minutes this season, so the matchup is ripe for MacKinnon and the Avs. In net, Philipp Grubauer has had an inconsistent start to the season, but improving on his solid 4-2 record, .919 save percentage and 2.17 GAA is within reach.
Anaheim Ducks at Arizona Coyotes (-139)
As expected, Tuesday’s game between the Ducks and Coyotes was a low-scoring affair with Anaheim winning 1-0. It’s been the John Gibson show to start the year for the Ducks, as the 27-year-old netminder has a 3-1-2 record, .948 save percentage, 1.68 GAA and two shutouts across his six starts. He’s been a fantasy force in the past with 77-47-20, .924 and 2.26 marks from 2015-16 through 2017-18, so this isn’t an out-of-nowhere breakout. Additionally, he’s still in his prime years. The Ducks aren’t likely to score a lot, and they’ve allowed the most high-danger scoring chances per 60 minutes in the league this season, so Gibson’s play will be all the more important.
Turning to the Coyotes, there’s just not a lot of exciting options — even after they generated 16 high-danger scoring chances Tuesday. Connor Garland carries a reasonable cap hit and leads the team in scoring, but he’s also missed the scoresheet entirely in four of seven games. In net, Darcy Kuemper has stopped 78 of 82 shots through his past three starts and only came away with a single win, although it could be Antti Raanta starting Thursday. Both netminders are probably in play considering Anaheim has only scored 12 times through seven games.
St. Louis Blues at Vegas Golden Knights (-141)
The Blues-Golden Knights matchup Tuesday lived up to the hype with a 5-4 shootout win going St. Louis’ way. Vegas’ top two lines drove possession and Max Pacioretty scored three times with Mark Stone assisting on each tally. Jaden Schwartz and David Perron recorded multi-point showings for the Blues. St. Louis has scored four or more goals in all four of its wins and just four total goals in its three losses. The feast-or-famine scoring correlates with their inability to generate high-danger scoring chances, as the Blues rank dead last in the league with just 6.14 per 60 minutes.
The Golden Knights rank fourth in high-danger scoring chances and have scored 3.25 goals per hour en route to their 5-1-1 record. Considering the mismatch in quality chances and likelihood of Vegas bouncing back Thursday, Marc-Andre Fleury stands out as a potential netminder to target. The veteran owns a .951 save percentage and 1.01 GAA through his three wins, and he should start with the Golden Knights rotating their starters to this point in the season.
Toronto Maple Leafs (-132) at Edmonton Oilers
The Oilers haven’t won consecutive games yet and own a discouraging 3-5 record after losing 6-4 to Winnipeg on Tuesday. Edmonton split its two-game series at Toronto last week, so it will be interesting to see if the Oilers can improve on their current 1-3 home-ice record. There are glaring early concerns, though. Edmonton owns the sixth worst Corsi For percentage (46.5) and ninth worst team save percentage (.907) at five-on-five, and Mikko Koskinen has a discouraging .900 save percentage and 3.42 GAA through eight starts. Making matters worse, Edmonton is relatively healthy outside of Mike Smith. Oscar Klefbom’s absence has been known for months.
The Maple Leafs have a league-high 12 points and have won three straight, one-goal games. Frederik Andersen has also been better of late with a .925 save percentage and 2.02 GAA through his past four games. Up front, Auston Matthews has scored in consecutive games, and Mitchell Marner is tied for the league lead in scoring with 11 points. Of course, Marner is tied with Oilers’ star Connor McDavid, and No. 97 enters with a four-game point streak consisting of two tallies, five helpers and consecutive multi-point showings. Leon Draisaitl has also found the back of the net in four straight games. This game has the potential to be high scoring, even if there were only 10 total goals in the team’s two-game series last week.
Ottawa Senators at Vancouver Canucks (-155)
This will be the third meeting between these two teams in the past four nights, and the Canucks outscored the Senators 12-2 through the first two contests — winning both. Look for Braden Holtby to return to the crease for Vancouver after Thatcher Demko took care of the first two games. It’s been a tough start to the season for the first-year Canuck. Holtby has recorded an .888 save percentage and 3.70 GAA. Still, the Sens have only scored 11 goals during their six-game losing streak. Additionally, Ottawa has allowed the most goals per game in the league.
Offense has been easy to come by for the Canucks through the first two games of this series, as eight skaters already have two points, and another six have found the scoresheet once. The floodgates could remain open, too. Matt Murray should return to the crease after watching Wednesday’s loss, and he’s sporting an underwhelming .862 save percentage and 4.47 GAA through five games this year. Considering how many options there are in the player pool, and Ottawa’s current struggles, it’s not out of the question to fade the Sens Thursday — or at least view them as contrarian fliers.
