Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
We close out the week with a very fun nine-game DFS slate around the NBA. There is plenty of injury news to keep an eye out for, though we did get some news early Thursday evening that certainly doesn’t hurt.
Every day, we take a quick look at that day’s NBA slate to find some of the key early takeaways for DFS players.
(Make sure to check out all of the great FTN NBA offerings and fantastic NBA Tools, including our FTN NBA Odds Tracker and daily FTN NBA DFS cheat sheets!)
New Orleans Pelicans @ Indiana Pacers
IND -3.5, total: 226.5
Wednesday night, Domantas Sabonis was far too cheap at $8,300 on DraftKings. He went off against Milwaukee to the tune of 33 points, 12 rebounds and 6 assists. Fast forward to Friday night and he remains too cheap again at $8,600. Sabonis is still initiating a huge chunk of this Indiana offense, as his 99.3 touches per game are still good for second-most in the NBA, while he is also averaging a healthy 21.0 rebounding chances per game, the fourth-most in the league. This is a solid spot for Sabonis, facing a Pelicans defense that is coughing up 9.2 points per game to opposing roll men out of the pick and roll this season, the fourth-most in basketball. They are also allowing the fifth-worst field goal percentage off the play type (55.8%), which bodes well for Sabonis, whose 4.0 points per game as the roll man are tied for the fourth-most in the league. Meanwhile, despite coming off a tough game, Malcolm Brogdon, who is third in touches per game (93.0), is also too cheap at $8,000 on DraftKings. Finally, while I don’t play Myles Turner very often when Sabonis is active, his price has come all the way down to $6,300 on DK and given his shot-blocking potential, we know there is a ceiling here, especially against a New Orleans defense that is surrendering the second-highest field goal percentage at the rim (68.3%).
The Pelicans, meanwhile, don’t interest me too much. Zion Williamson is back over $8,000, and while his floor has been there for the majority of the season, this is a player who has also reached 50 fantasy points once all year long. His peripherals have been very, very inconsistent, though the scoring has been a staple. Zion is top-five in points per game off cuts, but I don’t see this as the greatest spot, as Turner has been the best rim protector in basketball this season. Opponents are shooting just 59.4% from within four feet of the basket against the Pacers this year, one of the six best rates in the league. Again, the floor should be there, but I find myself gravitating to other players around Zion’s price tag. Brandon Ingram is fairly priced at $8,000, but he hasn’t been great lately, scoring less than 40 fantasy points in eight of his last 10 games.
Chicago Bulls @ Orlando Magic
CHI -2, total: 221.5
I really, really like the Magic in this spot.
For whatever reason, DraftKings just gives Nikola Vucevic zero respect. He is rarely priced where he should be, and that continues here, as he’s just $8,00, despite coming off a two-game series against the Raptors where he scored 45.5 and 51 fantasy points. In Orlando’s first game without Aaron Gordon, Vucevic touched the ball 92 times, way up from his season average of 73.1. He also saw 13 post-ups in that last game, as the Magic unsurprisingly ran their entire offense through the All-Star center. That should continue going forward, as Vucevic is sporting a 31.5% usage rate and 36% rebounding rate with both Gordon and Markelle Fultz off the floor this season, while averaging 1.34 fantasy points per minute. This is a pretty favorable matchup, as the Bulls are coughing up the eighth-most post-up points per game on the season (5.5), while also allowing the third-most points per game (9.3) to opposing roll men out of the pick and roll. Chicago is also allowing the third-most possessions per game to the play type (8.1), while Vucevic is second in possessions (5.4) and tied for first in points (6.0) per game as the roll man this season. Don’t overthink it. Vucevic is an easy play.
I also really like Evan Fournier, who has offered a lot more in the peripheral department since returning from injury. He led the Magic with a near 33% usage rate last game and with Fultz and Gordon off the floor this year, Fournier leads the team with a solid 19% assist rate. The added assists and rebounds could be huge for Fournier’s fantasy value, especially since he’s also been attempting around 15 shots per game since returning to the lineup. This is a massive pace-up spot for the Magic, as they rank 21st in pace but will face a Bulls team that is third in that department. Meanwhile, Chicago is allowing 5.0 points per game off screens this season, good for the seventh-most in the league, while Fournier is sporting a 15.7% frequency rate off the play type on the year, a top-15 rate in basketball. Given the matchup and uptick in both usage and peripherals, Fournier is also a bit underpriced. Cole Anthony is also a very fine value play here, as he’s still averaging 5.85 seconds per touch this season, good for the third-most in the NBA. With Gordon and Fultz off the floor, the rookie is sporting a solid 25% usage rate and 19% rebounding rate, while averaging just under a fantasy point per minute. The Bulls have struggled to defend point guards this season, ranking dead last against primary ball handlers.
For the Bulls, Zach LaVine is a perfectly fine play at $8,400 on DraftKings, the lowest his price has been all year long. Coby White’s price continues to drop, but his ceiling just hasn’t been there in his sophomore year — I’d rather just play Anthony on the other side of this game for $300 less. Meanwhile, Thaddeus Young has been awesome of late, averaging 14 points, 8.0 rebounds, 7.5 assists and 2.0 steals per game over his last four outings. Otto Porter has once again been ruled out, meaning Young should come off the bench and play 28-32 minutes. However, his price is up, and he’s been getting some outlier stats as of late, posting both 8- and 11-assist games, while also coming off a game with five steals.
Toronto Raptors @ Brooklyn Nets
BKN -5, total: 243
The Brooklyn Nets have allowed at least 120 points in seven of their last eight games, meaning some of these Raptors players should certainly be on our radar. Of course, Fred VanVleet is coming off a career outing, scoring 54 points on 11-of-14 from three-point land. He didn’t get priced up too much after his stellar game and faces a Nets defense that has been awful at defending opposing guards, especially as of late. For the season, Brooklyn now ranks 28th against scorers and primary ball handlers, per advanced DvP, while ranking 23rd against dimers. Of course, that also bodes well for Kyle Lowry, who has the same archetypes as VanVleet. This game is projected to be fairly close, which means Lowry, VanVleet and Pascal Siakam should all play 35-38 minutes and are priced extremely fairly. Feel free to get exposure to all three Raptors, while Aron Baynes has now become interesting. To start the season, Chris Boucher was getting plenty of run and dominating. However, his minutes have come crashing down as of late, while Baynes’ have continued to climb. Over the last five games, Baynes is averaging nearly 25 minutes per game, while posting an awesome 37% rebounding rate over the last week of play. Against a Brooklyn team that has been playing Jeff Green a ton as a small ball center, this could easily be a spot where Boucher’s minutes climb back up. But it is obviously a risk.
Meanwhile, it is hard to not like the price tags on Kyrie Irving ($9,100) and Kevin Durant ($9,600) on DraftKings. James Harden has been fantastic as of late, recording consecutive triple-doubles, while now leading the NBA in assists per game. But Durant and Irving are both underpriced, while Harden is priced appropriately, making him the third-best option of the trio for me. Durant is averaging 6.1 spot-up points per game so far this season, good for the seventh-most in the NBA. That could bode well for him in this spot, facing a Toronto defensive unit that is coughing up the fifth-most points per game to opposing spot-up shooters (33.3).
Milwaukee Bucks @ Cleveland Cavaliers
MIL -10.5, total: 228
This is a pretty simple game for me. The Bucks are huge favorites here and will be favored by even more if the Cavaliers are without Collin Sexton (neck). Sexton is questionable and has been Cleveland’s best player this season, meaning his absence would make it difficult for the Cavs to keep up here. If he sits, things obviously open up for Cleveland, as Darius Garland sees a 4% bump in usage rate with Sexton off the floor this season, jumping up to 27.4%. Garland is also sporting a 20% assist rate in the split, while averaging just over a fantasy point per minute. Meanwhile, Andre Drummond is sporting a massive 35% usage rate with Sexton off the floor, while his price has come down a bit. He is very risky due to potential blowout and the presence of Jarrett Allen. If Sexton ends up playing, I will be completely off the Cavaliers for DFS.
For Milwaukee, Giannis Antetokounmpo will likely be the highest-scoring player of the slate if this game can somehow stay close. In fact, he could still score more than anyone even if he plays just 30-32 minutes. Cleveland’s defense has been much improved this season, but they still struggle on the break, coughing up the third-most transition points per game (22.5). That obviously bodes well for Giannis, who is averaging 8.9 transition points per contest, easily the most in the NBA to this point. I also have interest in Khris Middleton, who is $7,800 on DraftKings, one of the lowest price tags we’ve seen him at all year long. Middleton still initiates a lot of this Milwaukee offense, sporting a 24% usage rate, while the peripherals have been there, as he’s also posting a 19% rebounding rate and 18% assist rate.
Utah Jazz @ Charlotte Hornets
UTA -8.5, total: 223
The Hornets are going to once again be without P.J. Washington for this game, but they are expected to get Terry Rozier back, which puts a damper on the rest of this team for fantasy. LaMelo Ball wasn’t as productive as we may have hoped during his two-game stretch as the starter and while it is possible the Hornets just keep him in the starting lineup, I don’t see myself playing him here against the Jazz, especially with Rozier back. Devonte' Graham is still cheap enough to consider is a solid value play, especially with his minutes so solidified. But again, it isn’t a high-upside play. The same can be said for Cody Zeller, who has been strong as of late but is now over $6,000 on DraftKings and has to face Rudy Gobert and this tough Utah defense. If I were to play one player from this team it would be Gordon Hayward at a fair $7,500 price tag but again, I am not very excited about anyone from this team here.
Utah is a bit more intriguing, especially Rudy Gobert and Donovan Mitchell. Both players are either fairly priced or a touch too cheap. The matchup is ideal for Gobert, facing a Charlotte interior that has struggled to defend centers for a long time now. The Hornets rank 30th against rebounders this season, while also ranking just 21st against rim protectors. They are also allowing more rebounds per game to opposing centers than any other team in basketball (17.2), while Gobert is obviously as elite as it comes in the rebounding department. His 22.8 rebounding chances per game trail only Clint Capela of the Hawks, while he’s also averaging 3.2 putback points per contest, the sixth-most in the league. Charlotte, meanwhile, is allowing the 10th-most putback points per game this season (6.5), while also ranking bottom-six in field goal percentage and points per possession off the play type. Mitchell is also a viable play at his price tag, as the Hornets rank 24th against dimers and primary ball handlers, while also ranking 22nd against scorers.
Don’t sleep on two other members of the Jazz either. Bojan Bogdanovic is often a scoring-dependent player in fantasy, but he’s scoring right now, averaging around 20 points per game over his last six games. The Hornets play more zone defense than any team in the NBA, which leads to plenty of three-pointers. And as a result, 39.5% of the points scored against Charlotte this season have come from beyond the arc, the fourth-highest mark in the league. Bogdanovic, meanwhile, has attempted almost 30 triples over his last three games, while Charlotte is allowing the fourth-most three-pointers per game to opposing power forwards (2.69). I also think Jordan Clarkson makes some sense as a mid-range play tonight for two reasons. For starters, the Jazz are solid favorites in this game and if Utah gets ahead, Clarkson could flirt with 30 minutes. More minutes from Clarkson is never a bad thing, as he’s sporting a usage rate north of 27% on the year, while averaging 1.14 fantasy points per minute. Secondly, the Hornets rank 29th against opposing bench players this season, per our advanced DVP tool.
Washington Wizards @ Miami Heat
MIA -6.5, total: 228.5
Right away, the price tags on both Russell Westbrook and Bradley Beal stand out. Both players are far too cheap, especially Westbrook at just $9,000. Given his rebounding upside right now, Russ has triple-double upside every single night, which really isn’t anything new. But Westbrook is averaging 13.7 rebounding chances per game this season, the most among all guards right now. Just 2.4 of those opportunities per game are contested, too. He rested Wednesday, but now that Russ is back to playing his normal allotment of minutes, his price tag should be in the $10,000 range on DraftKings. Beal, meanwhile, might be viewed by many as a player you’d only want to play at his price when Westbrook is inactive. However, he is still sporting a healthy 34.1% usage rate with Westbrook on the floor this season, while averaging 1.25 fantasy points per minute. Miami is a solid overall defensive unit, but they do allow the fifth-most points per possession to opposing shooters off screens this season (1.10), as well as the fifth-highest field goal percentage off the play type (45.9%). That bodes well for Beal, who is averaging a league-leading 4.9 points per game off screens on the season. Outside of the top two Wizards, I have no issue going back to Deni Avdija at $3,900 on DraftKings. His minutes have climbed each game since returning from the COVID list and just logged 32 minutes the other night. Rui Hachimura is also playing huge minutes again and if anyone outside of Westbrook is going to haul in rebounds, it appears to be Rui, who is sporting a 20% rebounding rate over the last week of action.
Jimmy Butler is the top player from Miami for me. In three games since returning to the lineup, Butler is sporting a usage rate north of 27%, while logging 34, 37 and 37 minutes. He is also averaging a strong 81.0 touches per game during that span and gets a repeat matchup with this same Wizards defense that he just torched for a near triple-double Wednesday night. Washington ranks 23rd against crafty finishers this season, while also ranking just 26th against primary ball-handlers. Meanwhile, in a vacuum, I like this spot for Bam Adebayo. The floor is always going to be there for Bam, who has scored at least 40 fantasy points in eight of his last 10 games. And he has the potential to go for 50-plus on most nights, but he is still a bit too expensive, especially when you consider that both Vucevic and Sabonis are significantly cheaper than him on this slate.
Minnesota Timberwolves @ Oklahoma City Thunder
MIN -1.5, total: 219
The Thunder are once again arguably the most important team on this slate, as we will see plenty of value options again. Both Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Luguentz Dort have been ruled out for OKC, which is obviously notable considering these two players lead the team in minutes per game. With SGA out last game, we saw Hamidou Diallo enter the starting lineup and score nearly 32 fantasy points. He’s been a pretty high-usage player all year long and with SGA and Dort off the floor this season, Diallo is sporting a 24.5% usage rate and 23% rebounding rate, while averaging just under a fantasy point per minute. Meanwhile, George Hill will also remain out, meaning Theo Maledon will continue to start and play huge minutes. He touched the ball 83 times last game and possessed the ball for 6.3 minutes and while his overall numbers weren’t great, he made up for it by collecting six steals. I expect him to shoot better than 2-of-12 this time around. However, the clear top play from this team, especially when factoring in price, has to be Kenrich Williams at $3,500. Williams played backup point guard with the second unit last game, finishing with 19 points, six assists and two rebounds in 23 minutes. Williams has played four games where he’s seen 20-plus minutes, averaging over 11 points, 5.5 rebounds and 2.0 assists in those contests. However, he wasn’t running the offense with the second unit, giving him more usage and more overall opportunities for assists. Williams is arguably the top value play of the slate, but you can also go back to Darius Bazley or Al Horford, who are still fairly priced and offer strong floors. Horford likely won’t play more than 30 or 31 minutes but given how efficient he’s been, he doesn’t need to, especially with the uptick in usage he’ll see.
My top play from Minnesota, meanwhile, is actually Naz Reid. There is always risk associated with Reid, because he is averaging a terrifying 5.2 personal fouls per 36 minutes. However, I don’t see anyone on this Thunder team who should be able to get him into foul trouble and when Reid stays on the court, he’s very strong for fantasy, averaging 1.08 fantasy points per minute while posting a rebounding rate north of 30%. On offense, he does most of his damage in the pick and roll, averaging 4.0 points per game as the roll man, good for the sixth-most in basketball. Meanwhile, the Thunder are coughing up the eighth-most points per game to the roll man this season (8.4), making this a sneaky good spot for Reid. D'Angelo Russell is once again questionable with his quad injury, but I expect him to play. His price tag is very intriguing, as he enters this game at just $6,900 on DraftKings. We haven’t seen a ton of huge games from Russell this season, but he is still sporting a 30.5% usage rate with Karl-Anthony Towns off the floor this season, while averaging 1.16 fantasy points per minute.
Detroit Pistons @ Phoenix Suns
PHO -8, total: 214
Honestly, this game is mostly an avoid for me. Relatively high spread, below-average total and a mostly healthy Suns team aren’t the best combination for fantasy. Chris Paul has been great, but Devin Booker is still back, which hurts the overall upside for everyone. And Booker, meanwhile, hasn’t been someone I’ve played all year because the Suns offense has changed so much. They are playing at one of the slowest paces in the NBA, running their offense through the post more this season. Booker has also seen his playmaking duties plummet with the presence of CP3, as his assist rate is sitting at an ugly eight% with Paul on the floor this season. And with backup point guard Cameron Payne hurt, that means more minutes for Paul and less time for Booker to run the offense by himself. If there was one Phoenix player that stands out it would be Cameron Johnson at $4,800 on DraftKings. He’s already locked into strong minutes, but with Jae Crowder doubtful, Johnson should play 32-35 minutes in a solid matchup.
For the Pistons, it is once again Jerami Grant or bust. He is still far too cheap at $7,000 on DraftKings and while this isn’t the greatest matchup, Grant has shown the ability to excel in tough matchups over the course of the season.
Boston Celtics @ Los Angeles Clippers
LAC -6.5, total: 220
We’ll see if Jaylen Brown plays, as he’s listed as questionable. Of course, this is the last game of the slate, so there is a chance we won’t know until after lock. However, that won’t matter, as Jayson Tatum is rarely a bad play and even if you lock him into your lineups and Brown is active, Tatum will still be good. However, if Brown sits, Tatum could take upwards of 30 shots, as Brown is averaging around 20 per game himself. And with Brown off the floor this season, Tatum is sporting a usage rate of 35.3%, while averaging 1.43 fantasy points per minute. Kemba Walker, meanwhile, is becoming more interesting, especially given his usage rate and price. However, he still likely won’t play more than 30 minutes and this isn’t exactly the greatest of matchups. Marcus Smart is still out but there is a chance that Payton Prichard returns tonight, which would guarantee that Walker’s minutes will remain limited in some capacity.
For the Clippers, Paul George and Kawhi Leonard are both under $9,000 on DraftKings. That is just wrong. George is obviously coming off a huge game, but he has been great all year long. The same can be said for Leonard and for whatever reason, these two-star players are rarely popular in DFS contests. They are often some of my favorite tournament options each night and that especially holds true here given their price tags.
