Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
Wednesday presents us with another large NBA slate to add on to what’s already been a special week within the FTN community, as our very own Javi Prellezo shipped over $160,000 on DraftKings Tuesday, marking the third $100,000-plus win on the NBA season so far within FTN. While these game-by-game articles are free, the added value in the livestreams, Discord channel and premium content makes it well worth the price of admission.
As always, the game-by-game breakdown will provide a brief overview of each and every game on the slate, highlighting players that stand out. This doesn’t, however, mean that every player will be touched on. If a player is excluded from the breakdown, that simply means that they didn’t stand out as one that necessarily needs to be in your player pool. Again, this is the first look. Things will change given news throughout the day, but I will do my best to prime you for all of the hypotheticals that we can forecast.
Vegas data at the time of writing listed is the consensus odds from the FTN NBA Odds Tracker.
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Boston Celtics @ Atlanta Hawks
BOS -3.5, total: 227.5
Both teams come into this game on the second leg of a back-to-back and also just played each other a mere four days ago. Being the second of a back-to-back, it would make sense to see Kemba Walker sit out after he saw nearly 34 minutes Tuesday night. This provides a nice boost to the key cogs in Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown, who see a 35.1% usage rate and 32.4% usage rate respectively without Walker and Marcus Smart this season. Both are elite plays in a pace-up matchup, with the edge going to Tatum.
This should also open up more minutes for Payton Pritchard, who, at $3,900, has a nice ceiling relative to his price. Because of the lack of production we’ve seen from him numerous times in this same situation, I’m resisting putting him in the elite value tier, but he’s viable in tournaments nonetheless.
The Hawks are in a bit of a different spot than they were when these teams last met as well, as John Collins exited Tuesday’s game with a concussion, putting his availability for Wednesday in serious jeopardy, while Cam Reddish is in danger of missing another game with an Achilles issue. This would likely thrust Danilo Gallinari into the starting lineup at the power forward position, as he played 13 of 24 second-half minutes after Collins’ exit, while Solomon Hill saw 16 of 24. Of the two, Gallinari carries far more fantasy upside.
Trae Young, Clint Capela and Kevin Huerter are all viable in this matchup as well and should come in relatively low-owned. Young gets the benefit of taking on a thin backcourt (unfortunately likely without a putrid defender in Walker), while Huerter should continue to soak up more touches and minutes if Reddish is out. Capela is a constant 20-20 threat and should remain on the court for as long as possible against a bigger frontcourt, especially if Collins’ absence opens up a few extra minutes at the five.
Houston Rockets @ Cleveland Cavaliers
HOU -3, total: 217
The Rockets are starting to become an irritating team to navigate, as their injury report is constantly littered with significant players. As it stands right now, Christian Wood remains out, while both Eric Gordon and Victor Oladipo are questionable. This game is also the Rockets’ since they released DeMarcus Cousins, so depth is not something that the Rockets have much of Wednesday.
If both guards end up sitting out, John Wall would be a hard asset to pass on, as he sports a 33.7% usage rate, 48.8% assist rate, and posts 1.54 DKP/min with the three aforementioned players off the court. This would also open up additional run for David Nwaba, whose $5,100 price on both FanDuel and DraftKings leaves room for upside. This would also likely lead to more Jae'Sean Tate, who we’ve seen operate as a backup point guard at times this season. He’s locked into heavy minutes (31-plus in three consecutive games) and has some upside at his price tag. The fact that PJ Tucker is still rounding back into full health also helps his case.
If the guards are active, the entire team takes a bit of a hit. Oladipo at $7,600 would likely be my top option on this team, but they would all fall down my priority list and would be worthwhile fades.
For the Cavs, the pace-up spot here could work wonders for the Sexland backcourt. Both Collin Sexton and Darius Garland are priced up relative to their prices over the last 10-14 days, but if the Houston guards are out, this is a spot to target them in.
Perhaps my favorite Cavs option, however, is Jarrett Allen. His $7,700 price tag has and will continue to deter people. Don’t be that person. Houston has zero size in the post with Cousins gone, catering right into Allen’s 22.8% rebounding rate over the last two weeks. His 1.31 DKP/min clip over that span should be considered a baseline.
Golden State Warriors @ Indiana Pacers
IND -2, total: 228.5
There’s really no standout reason to fully fade Stephen Curry given his form. In February, he’s averaged 33.8 points per game while shooting 43.1% from beyond the arc in just under 34 minutes per game. If a game is going to stay close, he’s going to be the reason why.
Outside of Curry, this Warriors team is hard to target. Draymond Green still has appeal and should be relied upon a bit more in a matchup with Domantas Sabonis. His $6,600 price tag on DraftKings is still too cheap, yet it is one that most are reluctant to pay. With his current assist rate (34.7% over the last 14 days) combine with his minutes (sure-fire bet for at least 30), he makes for an elite target. Kelly Oubre and Andrew Wiggins are fine in MME builds if you want Warriors exposure and choose to fade Curry, but they aren’t players I’ll be targeting outside of that scenario.
For the Pacers, regardless of Sabonis’ recent form, there’s bound to be some sticker shock with his price over $10k for the first time this season. While he should be able to do whatever he wants against this weaker Golden State frontcourt, I still believe there are better options if we’re spending all the way up. Because of my train of thought here, I’d rather save $2,300 and opt for Malcolm Brogdon, who’s posted 50-plus DK points in back-to-back games and stepping into a pace-up spot.
The rest of the Pacers are harder to endorse given their volatility. Myles Turner at $6,100 carries plenty of upside, but the center position is one that you typically need to hit on, making him a risky investment. T.J. McConnell and Jeremy Lamb are two others catching my eye, as their price tags leave room for upside given the pace-up matchup.
Minnesota Timberwolves @ Chicago Bulls
CHI -4.5, total: 227.5
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There’s nothing better than a fast-paced game with two putrid defenses when it comes to NBA DFS, and that’s exactly what we have in this game Wednesday. While the Timberwolves are on the second leg of a back-to-back, it’s hard not to love Karl-Anthony Towns at his price ($9,700) against a Bulls team that, per advanced DvP, ranks 24th or worst against scorers, primary ball handlers, point forwards, skilled centers, rebounders and superstars — six of Towns’ eight total player traits.
Outside of Towns, there’s merit to considering Malik Beasley and Anthony Edwards. Beasley provides more stability, given the fact that Edwards has shot worse than 30% from the field in four consecutive games, but both are cheap enough to warrant consideration in this matchup.
For the Bulls, Zach LaVine finally got his All Star bid, but I doubt he’ll stop now. He has a 34.4% usage rate and a 20.9% assist rate over the last two weeks while averaging 1.42 DKP/min over that span, making him a phenomenal player to mini-stack with Towns to anchor a lineup. Coby White is another high-usage guard that could have a ceiling game here and for sub-$6,000 on FanDuel, he deserves some consideration.
Wendell Carter is the other player from Chicago I have interest in, as the T-Wolves defense is noticeably worse with Towns on the court and they rank 28th in the league against rebounders. We saw last game what Carter can do in limited minutes (18-point, 13-rebound double-double in 28 minutes), giving him an astronomical ceiling for his $5,800 price tag on DraftKings.
Toronto Raptors @ Miami Heat
MIA -2, total: 215.5
Kyle Lowry missed the Raptors’ game Tuesday, putting his status for Wednesday in jeopardy once again. In his absence, no player has stepped up quite like Norman Powell and with Jimmy Butler likely focusing more on Fred VanVleet, Powell could be primed for another solid offensive showing. With Lowry out this season, Powell averages nearly three more points per game (19.43) while seeing a 2.46% bump in usage rate. He’ll continue to come in under-owned, making him one of my favorite mid-tier options if Lowry sits.
VanVleet is obviously also viable here, but his price is getting high given the difficult matchup. While he sees an incremental bump in usage rate (+0.87%), he actually averages over four fewer DK points per game with Lowry out and sees his scoring average drop from 19.47 to 17.14 points per game per FTN’s on/off tool. Because defenses should continue to key in on VanVleet, I’m taking a stand here and dubbing him as my top fade of the slate (albeit, certainly a risky fade). I’d also rather look to Pascal Siakam, who should continue to see heavy minutes, but this isn’t a matchup where you need to target him.
For the Heat, this team will continue to be Jimmy Butler or bust for me. His 37-DK-point performance was his lowest output since Feb. 13 and he’s still recorded three triple-doubles over his last five games. The (potential) return of Goran Dragic could hamper this production, but if he and Tyler Herro are ruled out, Butler will be hard to fade. Bam Adebayo is also viable if these two guards sit out, but I don’t feel a need to go here with Karl-Anthony Towns only a few hundred dollars more if they’re active.
If both guards are out, Kendrick Nunn would be an intriguing mid-tier option, as we’ve seen him top 40 minutes on numerous occasions over the last two weeks and know he isn’t afraid to let it fly on offense.
Detroit Pistons @ New Orleans Pelicans
NOP -9.5, total: 223
The Pistons should continue to be a source of value Wednesday, as Saben Lee remains too cheap at $3,800 considering the fact that he’s played 62 total minutes over his last two games, averaging over 32 DK points per game. Coach Dwayne Casey said that he wants to continue to get Lee on the court with both the first and second units, giving him elite minutes security and ample potential to approach 10x value for the third slate in a row. He’s a building block on DraftKings in an elite matchup.
Josh Jackson should still be in your player pool, as he’s taken 40 total shots over the last two games. His price is more appealing on FanDuel, where you’re forced to roster two shooting guards, compared to DraftKings, but he’s viable nonetheless. Jerami Grant is also one to consider, but his volatility has me looking elsewhere in his price range. If there is any other Pistons player that I want exposure to (especially at low ownership), it’s Mason Plumlee. He posted a 17-10-10 triple-double in his last game against the Pelicans and his price has come down relative to where it’s been over the last 7-10 days, making him an elite mid-tier center on this slate.
While I’m high on Plumlee on the offensive end, he and the Pistons have been abysmal on the defensive end, especially in the paint. This should cater right to Zion Williamson’s wheelhouse. While his $8,800 price tag is higher than we’ve seen at any other point this season, he’s topped 48 DK points in three of his last four games and is finally flashing the peripheral upside we’ve been waiting for, making him an elite GPP play.
Both Brandon Ingram and Lonzo Ball also pique my interest, as they feel a touch cheap for their playing time and production considering this matchup. If fading Zion in a tournament, Ingram makes sense as a pivot, while Ball is stackable with either of the two and correlates well.
San Antonio Spurs @ Oklahoma City Thunder
OKC -2, total: 217.5
The Spurs continue to work through the health and safety protocols, as DeMar DeRozan, Keldon Johnson, Derrick White, Rudy Gay, Devin Vassell and Quinndary Weatherspoon have all been ruled out.
This leaves a ridiculous number of minutes and usage up for grabs and while we don’t have a sample size to go off of, it’s rather obvious — this benefits virtually everyone on the team. Lonnie Walker will become a priority value play for me (and likely the masses), as his sub-$4,000 price tag is far too cheap given how many shots have opened up, especially with four wing players out. Dejounte Murray and LaMarcus Aldridge (if active) also carry massive ceilings given the absences, as does Patty Mills. Again, you can’t really go that wrong with anyone here. It’d be hard not to fit 2-3 Spurs in and still feel okay with your lineup. In fact, it feels like a must to do exactly that. The area that I don’t have much interest in, however, is the center spot, as Aldridge’s potential return will simply crowd it for Jakob Poeltl and Trey Lyles.
This should also hamper their defensive unit quite a bit. Even so, I don’t have a ton of interest in the Thunder outside of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who, even at $8,500, carries massive upside.
Charlotte Hornets @ Phoenix Suns
PHX -9.5, total: 225.5
This is another game that I have virtually no interest in. Devonte' Graham has already been ruled out while Gordon Hayward is listed as questionable, so there is certainly the potential for opportunity to open up, the matchup is just far from ideal.
I got off the Terry Rozier train last game at just the right time, and I refuse to board it again in this matchup. If I’m looking for a guard here, I’ll default to LaMelo Ball, but with Chris Paul keying in on him defensively in a slow-paced game, I’ll look elsewhere if playing a single lineup.
Miles Bridges and Malik Monk figure to benefit as well, especially if Hayward is ruled out. Of the two, Monk has a higher offensive ceiling and for only $4,300 on FanDuel, he’s an extremely intriguing SG2 in tournaments.
On the Phoenix side, you can get away with any of the big three here, just make sure not to pair Devin Booker and Deandre Ayton. Of the three, Ayton is my favorite, as the Hornets rank 25th against rebounders and have gotten absolutely shelled by centers this season. His price is simply too cheap.
Los Angeles Lakers @ Utah Jazz
UTA -8, total: 219.5
This spread is easily the least favorable to the Lakers that I can remember with LeBron James active, and it makes sense given the absences of Anthony Davis and Dennis Schroder combined with how well the Jazz have been playing. Even with the larger spread, it’s hard to argue with James’ price under $11,000, as he’s posted a 35.45% usage rate (+3.44%), 27.33 points (+2.08), and 9.67 assists (+1.73) per game with them out this season while taking almost six additional shots per game. I don’t care about the matchup — this is LeBron James. He’s a phenomenal play.
Outside of James, however, I don’t trust the ancillary pieces enough to warrant consideration in this matchup.
For the Jazz, I’m fine going back to the well with Rudy Gobert at his price ($7,500), especially with no Anthony Davis in the post. He should be a candidate for 20-20 once again and like I say every time he’s on the slate, I will continue to take advantage of this price until it’s adjusted accordingly. Donovan Mitchell and Jordan Clarkson are also in play, Clarkson especially if you buy into the spread and script a blowout.
