Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Tuesday’s nine-game NBA DFS slate features almost any star player you can think of, while there are also a few games that have serious blowout concerns. But as this season has taught us, the NBA can be extremely unpredictable.
Let’s try to make some sense of it all.
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Atlanta Hawks @ Cleveland Cavaliers
ATL -7, total: 228
I’ve talked about it a lot recently, but the Cavaliers defense has fallen off a cliff. Over the last 10 games, Cleveland is dead last in defense rating (125.6), while coughing up at least 120 points in nine of those 10 contests. They were clearly playing above their head to start the season, and this is once again a matchup that we can attack. Of course, the Hawks start with Trae Young, who has scored at least 50 fantasy points in six of his last 10 games. No one on this Cavs defense will be able to slow him down, while Cleveland suddenly is coughing up the third-most points per possession (0.97) to opposing ball handlers out of the pick and roll this season, while also allowing a 47.4% field goal percentage off the play type, good for the second-highest rate in basketball. Young, meanwhile, is averaging 14.4 points per game as the pick and roll ball handler, trailing only Luka Doncic in the league. Oh, and in that aforementioned 10-game span, the Cavaliers are allowing 54.4 paint points per game, the third-most in the league, while Trae is still attacking the basket plenty, as his 20.0 drives per game rank third in basketball. Of course, that also bodes well for a player like Clint Capela, who is averaging 11.3 paint touches per game this season, the second-most in the league. Capela has now put together three-straight 20-point double-doubles and could easily do it again here, as the Cavaliers are also allowing the most points per possession (1.28) and second-highest field goal percentage (58.4%) to opposing roll men out of the pick and roll. Finally, John Collins bounced back in his last game against Denver, scoring 12 points to go along with 11 rebounds, three assists and two blocks. He’s been a bit more inconsistent this season with Capela in the mix but $6,500 is still far too cheap for a player of Collins’ caliber.
For Cleveland, I once again have some interest in Collin Sexton in a good matchup against Young. The Hawks also play up in pace, which is good for a player like Sexton, who is averaging 4.8 transition points per game this season (11th-most), while shooting 63% from the field in transition. Atlanta also ranks 27th against primary ball handlers, 24th against scorers and 24th against crafty finishers on the year, per our advanced DvP tool. Meanwhile, Jarrett Allen is showing us his ceiling as a full-time player. He is coming off a huge game against the Thunder, scoring 26 points to go along with 17 rebounds, two assists and three blocks in 42 minutes. During the four games since the Cavs decided not to play Andre Drummond, Allen is averaging nearly 19 rebounding chances per game, while converting a whopping 68% of those opportunities. This isn’t the greatest matchup but facing Capela will ensure that Allen will always be around the basket, presenting him with plenty of rebounding potential. And with Drummond and Larry Nance off the court over the last two weeks, Allen is sporting a 38% rebounding rate and 22.5% usage rate, while averaging 1.34 fantasy points per minute.
Detroit Pistons @ Orlando Magic
ORL -3, total: 208.5
These teams just played over the weekend, with the Magic winning 105-96. The Pistons were without Delon Wright, who will be out for at least the next two weeks. Dennis Smith got the start and let everyone down, playing just 15 minutes, while Saben Lee came off the bench and logged 33. At $3,200, Lee has to be worth a look, despite how low usage of a player he is. There is the potential for 30 minutes again at near minimum salary and that is tough to pass on. Josh Jackson and Jerami Grant are going to be doing the majority of the ball-handling for this team, with both players sporting usage rates of 27% with both Wright and Blake Griffin off the floor this season. The way I feel about Grant here is the same as it was prior to last game — he’s a fine option but not a priority. The Magic still play at one of the slowest paces in all of basketball and rank top-five against three of Grant’s four advanced DVP archetypes.
Nikola Vucevic continues to get it done for the Magic, averaging 57 fantasy points per game over his last five outings. And over the last two weeks, Vucevic is sporting a 30.8% usage rate and 36% rebounding rate, while averaging 1.53 fantasy points per minute during that stretch. He’s already matchup-proof but especially given his huge role right now given all the injuries to the Magic. Over the last seven games, no player in all of basketball is averaging more post-ups per game than Vucevic (15.6) so feel free to go right back to the well here against the Pistons, who he just torched for 64.5 fantasy points. I also really liked Evan Fournier last game and he was awesome, scoring 27 points with seven boards and seven assists. His peripherals have been much better with Aaron Gordon out of the lineup and while the price has come up, I still think he’s in play. The Pistons are coughing up the third-most points per possession (1.04) and the worst field goal percentage (49.6%) off handoffs this season, while Fournier’s 2.5 points per game off the play type are tied for the sixth-most in the league.
Sacramento Kings @ Brooklyn Nets
BKN -7. Total: 242
This is as good of a spot you can find for the Nets star players. Kevin Durant has already been ruled out for this game, which keeps James Harden and Kyrie Irving as top-tier plays for me, especially in this matchup. Harden is obviously the preferred play, and there’s a reason he is nearly $2,000 more expensive than Irving. Harden suddenly ranks fifth in the league in touches per game (91.6), while his 8.3 minutes of possession per game are good for fourth-most in basketball. He’s scored at least 50 fantasy points in eight of his last 10 games and as I’ve alluded to, this is an incredible spot for him. Harden is averaging more points per game off isolation this season (8.6) than anyone else in basketball, while his 30.5% frequency rate off the play type also leads the league. The Kings, meanwhile, are surrendering the second-most points per game off isolation (8.1). This is also great for Kyrie, who is right behind Harden in isolation scoring (4.8 points per game). Oh, and the Kings clearly struggle to defend players of Irving’s caliber.
For the Kings, De'Aaron Fox has now failed to reach 40 fantasy points in four straight games, though I still have interest in him here, especially as a runback option. This is still a player averaging 92.6 touches per game over the last 15 outings, good for the fourth-most in the NBA during that span. We know the Nets can (and will) give up points and offer a good matchup for Fox, as Brooklyn ranks 24th against primary ball handlers, 26th against scorers and 27th against crafty finishers. They don’t have great rim protection right now, which is great for Fox and his 18.0 drives per game (seventh-most). However, the Nets are also allowing a 45% field goal percentage off short mid-range shots (free throw line distance), the fifth-highest rate in the league. Meanwhile, 29% of Fox’s field goal attempts this season have come from that area of the court. Harrison Barnes is once again questionable for the Kings with a foot injury. He’s missed the last three games and DaQuan Jeffries got the start Sunday, though it is worth noting that Glenn Robinson also missed that game with a personal matter. Jeffries played 40 minutes in that game so keep an eye on the status of Barnes, as Robinson is still away from the team.
Boston Celtics @ Dallas Mavericks
DAL -3, total: 230
Dallas is on the second end of a back-to-back, and Kristaps Porzingis didn’t play Monday with a back issue. We’ll obviously need to keep tabs on his status throughout the day Tuesday, but we saw both Luka Doncic and Maxi Kleber really underwhelm as relatively popular plays against the Grizzlies. Still, if KP sits again here against Boston, Doncic would still need to be viewed as a top-tier play, as he’s sporting a 38% usage rate, 26% rebounding rate, 25% assist rate and 1.59 fantasy points per minute with Porzingis off the floor this season. Kleber, meanwhile, left late in the game with an ankle injury and did not return. If both he and Porzingis are out against Boston, Willie Cauley-Stein could likely start and become a strong value play. He is sporting a 26% rebounding rate with Porzingis off the floor this season, while the Celtics are surrendering the second-most putback points per game on the year (7.4).
The Celtics remain pretty easy for fantasy. Both Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown are very viable options at their price tags, as they continue to take a ton of shots and dominate the usage. Kemba Walker, who was originally expected to be on a 30-minute limit for the season, has now logged 34 and 36 minutes over the last two games. However, he’s shot the ball pretty terribly since making his season debut, and Dallas has actually been very strong against opposing point guards this season.
Golden State Warriors @ New York Knicks
GSW -3, total: 220
Stephen Curry is listed as questionable with an illness, but he’s expected to play in this game. A matchup with New York isn’t the most enticing for fantasy, as they are playing at the slowest pace in basketball, while ranking inside the top-five in defensive rating. However, Steph is playing at an elite level right now and has scored at least 50 fantasy points in each of his last three games. Curry is sporting a strong 31.5% usage rate to go along with a 16% rebounding rate, 18% assist rate and 1.45 fantasy points per minute. Draymond Green has been under 30 fantasy points in each of his last two games, but he’s still been racking up the assists, trailing only Harden in assists per game over the last 10 outings (10.9). And over the last two weeks, Green is sporting a 29% assist rate and 22% rebounding rate. Both Kevon Looney and James Wiseman are questionable to play in this game and if one or both return, Draymond could see less time at center. However, I doubt either will log huge minutes in their first game back.
For New York, it is Julius Randle or bust for me. The backcourt is still split between three players, while RJ Barrett just simply hasn’t shown enough of a ceiling for most of the season. As every game is for New York, this is a pace-up spot, as the Warriors rank second in the league in pace this year. Randle has that nice combination of floor and ceiling that we love.
Philadelphia 76ers @ Toronto Raptors
PHI -1, total: 222
These teams just played Sunday night, and despite the Raptors being without Kyle Lowry, they won the game against a tough 76ers squad. Lowry has missed the last three games with an ankle injury and is questionable to suit up for this contest. During that three-game stretch with Lowry sidelined, Fred VanVleet is averaging a strong 95.7 touches per game, up from his 82.1 per game average for the season. And with Lowry off the floor this season, VanVleet is sporting a solid 27.4% usage rate and 19% assist rate, while averaging 1.19 fantasy points per minute. He also leads this team in points per game off screens, and the Raptors should continue to set plenty of screens for FVV without Lowry. The 76ers, meanwhile, are coughing up a league-leading 6.4 points per game off screens this season. Pascal Siakam is also perfectly in play at $8,100, as he’s averaging 1.12 fantasy points per minute with Lowry off the floor. But if Lowry is active, I’d probably look elsewhere at that price tag. We know that the Raptors starters are going to play huge minutes in close games, especially Siakam and VanVleet.
The 76ers are at full strength, which makes them less appealing in fantasy. Joel Embiid is playing like the league MVP and is in play on any slate, against any team. He just went for nearly 55 fantasy points against this team and truly cannot be stopped right now. We’ve also seen Ben Simmons look a lot more aggressive as of late, attempting 27 free throws over his last two games. If he continues to attack the basket more regularly, Simmons would easily be worth a $9,000 price tag. The problem, however, is that we haven’t consistently seen this aggressiveness from Simmons, while one of those aforementioned games came with Embiid out of the lineup.
Minnesota Timberwolves @ Milwaukee Bucks
MIL -11.5, total: 230
It took a little bit, but Khris Middleton finally had a ceiling game with Jrue Holiday out of the lineup, going off for 32 points, eight rebounds, six assists, two blocks and four steals against the Kings. His price jumped up to $8,400 on DraftKings which is a bit scarier considering the Bucks are massive favorites at home against the worst team in basketball. However, with Holiday still out, Milwaukee isn’t as much of a lock to blow teams out and even if they do, you have to think Middleton and Giannis Antetokounmpo will have most (if not all) to do with it. Speaking of Giannis, he’s been unstoppable as of late, averaging 68 fantasy points per game over his last six outings. He’s also hauled in double-digit rebounds in nine of his last 10 games and is suddenly averaging a healthy 17.4 rebounding chances per game for the season, good for the 12th-most in all of basketball. And over the last two weeks, Giannis is sporting an absurd 38% rebounding rate and 34.6% usage rate, while averaging nearly 1.8 fantasy points per minute. This is a very good matchup, facing a Minnesota team that is surrendering the second-most transition points per game on the year (22.5), while Giannis leads the league in such points per game (9.0). Finally, with Milwaukee as such heavy favorites, Bobby Portis needs to be considered in GPPs at $5,000. He’s averaging 1.13 fantasy points per minute this season and if he can get to 25 minutes in this game, Portis legitimately has 35- to 40-fantasy-point upside in this spot.
The only player I have some interest in from Minnesota is Karl-Anthony Towns, who is coming off a huge game against a tough New York defense. KAT went for 61.2 fantasy points and this is a solid spot in terms of pace, as both of these teams rank inside the top-seven in pace for the season. The Timberwolves continue to play through Towns in the post, which shouldn’t be a surprise to anyone. He’s also been dominating the glass since returning to the lineup and I’d bet he’ll be overlooked on this slate.
Portland Trail Blazers @ Denver Nuggets
DEN -6, total: 231.5
Damian Lillard is coming off a down game against Phoenix, but I will be going right back to him here. He is still absolutely dominating the usage for Portland with CJ McCollum and Jusuf Nurkic out, as Lillard is second in the league in average time of possession per game over the last 10 contests (9.6 minutes), while his 6.77 seconds per touch during that span lead the NBA. He is also sporting a massive 37.2% usage rate over the last two weeks, while averaging 1.52 fantasy points per minute. I also have interest in Enes Kanter at $7,000, who is second in all of basketball in rebounding chances per game over the last 10 outings (24.3), just trailing Rudy Gobert (24.4). And during that same two-week span we mentioned with Lillard, Kanter is sporting a 42% rebounding rate. Denver’s defense is one we can attack, while they continue to struggle to defend the rim, surrendering the worst field goal percentage in the league from within four feet of the basket (69.6%). Finally, as I’ve written about for a while now, Gary Trent remains a very solid option, especially now that his price has dipped below $6,000. He shot just 4-of-18 from the field last game but the opportunity has been there for him every game since he’s entered the starting lineup for McCollum. Denver is also allowing the fourth-most points per possession to opposing shooters off screens this season (1.07), while Trent is averaging 2.3 such points per game on the year, good for the 10th-most in basketball.
For Denver, just play Nikola Jokic if you enjoy fantasy points. It is really that simple. He is coming off a “bad” game and still scored 43 fantasy points. Meanwhile, Jamal Murray stayed hot last game, scoring 30 points and 45.5 fantasy points, giving him four-straight games with at least 45 fantasy points, while eclipsing 60 in two of those contests. Like I’ve said, when Murray is on a stretch like this, you want to play him, especially in good matchups like this. Portland is coughing up the sixth-most points per game off handoffs this season (6.2), while Murray’s 3.3 points per game off handoffs are tied for the second-most in the league. The Blazers also rank 26th against primary ball handlers this season, making this another great spot for both Murray and Jokic to thrive. Finally, Michael Porter has the upside but cannot be trusted in any cash format right now. His minutes are all over the place, even with Paul Millsap still sidelined. But with Millsap and JaMychal Green out, we could see Zeke Nnaji draw another start. He logged 30 minutes last game and is just $3,100 on DraftKings.
Washington Wizards @ Los Angeles Clippers
LAC -11.5, total: 232
The Wizards are coming off the front end of a back-to-back, so we obviously need to make sure no one is resting here. If anyone does, it would likely be Russell Westbrook, though he did play a back-to-back set for the first time this season last week, so it is possible he plays. If he sits, you know what to do. Play Bradley Beal, even in a tough matchup, and move on. Otherwise, the Wizards aren’t too enticing to me here. Westbrook has recorded three triple-doubles over his last four games and his price has dipped back below $10,000 but there are other plays in that price range that I prefer on this slate.
The Clippers are nearly 12-point home favorites here, which means that, even in a great matchup, Paul George and Kawhi Leonard will likely once again go overlooked. That makes them very interesting as GPP late-night hammers, and if Washington can keep this game competitive, they could both easily go for 50-plus fantasy points in this spot.
