Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
It’s a unique DFS slate in the NHL Tuesday, with at least two of the six contests between division-basement dwellers, and there’s not a ton to be excited about in the Chicago-Columbus matchup, either.
Expect most DFS players to target the Pittsburgh-Washington, Montreal-Ottawa and Edmonton-Vancouver contests — they also all have the highest over/under total. The Canadiens are the largest favorites on the docket, and the Predators and Oilers are also road favorites.
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Buffalo Sabres at New Jersey Devils (-140)
The Sabres lost 3-2 Monday to the Islanders, whereas the Devils have been off since losing back-to-back games this weekend: 3-2 to Buffalo Saturday and then 4-3 to Washington Sunday. The Devils and Sabres are the two worst teams in the East Division, and it projects to be a low-scoring game considering Buffalo has scored the fewest five-on-five goals per 60 minutes in the league, and New Jersey has allowed the fewest. Additionally, Buffalo has only scored seven times through its past five outings, so New Jersey starter Mackenzie Blackwood is probably positioned for a strong showing with the Sabres also playing their second game in consecutive nights.
While Nico Hischier returned Saturday for New Jersey and hasn’t recorded a point through two games, he’s a huge boost for the Devils. It enables the club to ice two capable scoring lines. New Jersey also got Nikita Gusev back in the lineup after a three-game absence, and he scored in Sunday’s loss to Washington. Still, even with the favorable matchup against Buffalo, the Devils are more price-point selections than lineup building blocks. For Buffalo, the story remains the same. Jack Eichel and Taylor Hall have combined for just three goals all season, and while there’s obvious statistical correction ahead, it’s hard to justify targeting either in the noted potentially tough matchup against New Jersey.
Pittsburgh Penguins at Washington Capitals (-115)
This will be the fifth meeting of the season between the Penguins and Capitals, and Pittsburgh has won three of four, albeit with only one of those victories coming in regulation. Pittsburgh has only won four of its past five games to climb into third place in the East Division, and in particular, netminder Tristan Jarry appears to have righted the ship with a .936 save percentage and 2.27 GAA through his past four starts — three wins. Equally important to the Penguins’ success is the health of their blueline, as the only regular out now is Brian Dumoulin (lower body), and he’s even close to returning to action. Additionally, Evgeni Malkin is beginning to show some signs of life with seven points through the past eight games.
The Capitals bookended their mini layoff due to COVID-19 protocols with four consecutive losses but have since won three of four and are locked into second place in the East Division. Washington is also fully healthy for the first time in months, and there’s a special teams mismatch in this one with Washington’s third-ranked power play matching up against Pittsburgh's 74.0% penalty-kill percentage — the sixth lowest mark in the league. With that in mind, Alex Ovechkin has only scored once and owns an unsustainably low 5.9% shooting percentage through the past five games despite registering a whopping 39 shot attempts.
Chicago Blackhawks at Columbus Blue Jackets (-130)
Chicago has easily been one of the biggest surprises of the season to date. Seen as a likely lottery-pick team, the Blackhawks are 9-6-4 and have only lost three times in regulation through their past 16 contests to sit third in the Central Division. Still, there’s some funky statistical luck going their way, as Chicago owns the fifth best five-on-five team save percentage while still allowing a healthy 10.96 high-danger scoring chances and 2.47 goals per 60 minutes. Additionally, there’s no secondary scoring behind Patrick Kane, Alex DeBrincat and Dominik Kubalik, and emerging netminder Kevin Lankinen will probably begin being solved more frequently moving forward. Still, the wheels might not fall off completely or immediately.
The Blue Jackets, on the other hand, have underachieved this season and never found traction or strung together a winning streak longer than two games. Once a stout defensive club, Columbus has surrendered the third most goals per 60 minutes at five-on-five this season and owns a 27th-ranked 73.8% penalty-kill percentage. Offensively, there’s not a lot of scoring to go around. Sure, Cam Atkinson has been hot of late, and new Blue Jackets Patrik Laine and Jack Roslovic have flashed but it hasn’t been enough. Columbus’ minus-9 goal differential is telling, and the Blue Jackets need to start piling up wins or else their playoff aspirations will be out of reach sooner than later.
Montreal Canadiens (-225) at Ottawa Senators
Ottawa’s 3-2 overtime win against Montreal wasn’t shocking considering the Canadiens were in a tough schedule spot after losing to Toronto the night before. Additionally, even in a classic trap game, Montreal attempted 19 more shots than Ottawa. Both of the Senators’ regulation goals were also extremely fortunate bounces. With that in mind, expect the Canadiens to have a statement performance Tuesday and handle the Senators easily. After all, even with four losses through their past five games, the Canadiens have been one of the better five-on-five teams in the league with a second-ranked 55.1 Corsi For percentage, third-ranked 2.88 goals per hour and second-ranked 1.74 goals against per hour.
Ottawa, meanwhile, is allowing the most goals per 60 minutes at five-on-five and sports a 24th-ranked 74.2% penalty-kill percentage. Additionally, even with three wins through their past five games, the Senators are 5-14-1 for the campaign and last place in the North Division by a considerable margin. One of the tough things about loading up Canadiens is their balanced scoring attack, though. The Nick Suzuki-Jonathan Drouin–Josh Anderson line has cooled off with just 2.5 goals per 60 minutes over the past seven games and could be in a bounceback spot.
Nashville Predators (-162) at Detroit Red Wings
Reeling along a 3-7 stretch, Nashville hasn’t won consecutive games since Jan. 26-27, and its depth continues to be tested with Ryan Johansen (upper body) and Mattis Ekholm (undisclosed) out of the lineup. Johansen could return Tuesday, but it’s hard to gauge just how big an impact he would have after missing over two weeks of action. Even as favorites, and with Detroit’s struggles in mind, it’s difficult to be overly excited about Nashville beyond the No. 1 line of Mikael Granlund, Filip Forsberg and Viktor Arvidsson. It has to be noted that the trio has only skated 10:42 together over the past two years, though. Additionally, while Roman Josi is always in play, he’s having a down year and has only marked the scoresheet once through the past six games.
One major advantage both teams will have on the other is with the man advantage. Nashville ranks 30th with a 68.3% penalty-kill percentage, and Detroit owns a 28th-ranked 71.9 mark, so both power plays are positioned for success. Additionally, with Nashville allowing 3.35 goals per game — fifth in the league — there should be opportunities for Detroit at even strength, too. A Dylan Larkin–Anthony Mantha mini stack is definitely in play. The Red Wings have an unsustainably low 6.1% shooting percentage when they’re on the ice together, and Larkin has found the scoresheet in consecutive games. It’s also worth noting that Christian Djoos is quarterbacking the No. 1 power-play unit.
Edmonton Oilers (-130) at Vancouver Canucks
These two teams couldn’t be headed more directly in opposite directions. Edmonton has won nine of its past 11 games, whereas Vancouver has lost nine of 11. Additionally, during the noted stretch the Canucks have allowed the most goals per 60 minutes at five-on-five, and the Oilers have scored the third most. While it’s an utter mismatch, the odds probably aren’t enough in Edmonton’s favor.
Superstar Connor McDavid is coming off a five-point showing against Calgary, and he already has a four-point showing against Vancouver on his game log this year. Leon Draisaitl has cooled a little for his standards with just five points — two goals — through the past six games, and his value takes a hit if linemate Kailer Yamamoto (undisclosed) is unable to suit up Tuesday. Edmonton also has two — and potentially three — defensemen to target. Tyson Barrie has only missed the scoresheet twice through the past 12 games en route to three tallies and 11 helpers, whereas Darnell Nurse has produced at a point-per-game pace over the past 14 games while also chipping in an impressive 32 shots and 28 blocks. Evan Bouchard’s ice time has been a bit all over the place, but he’s flashed and checks out as a high-risk, high-reward target.
Vancouver’s No. 1 line of Elias Pettersson, J.T. Miller and Brock Boeser have continued to produce solid numbers with an elite 6.04 goals and 16.72 high-danger scoring chances per 60 minutes for the campaign, but they’re still a little inconsistent from game to game. Quinn Hughes is also in play with two tallies, 19 helpers and 11 power-play points through just 22 games this season. However, as noted, Edmonton’s in impressive form and allowed just 21 goals during the above noted 11-game stretch.
