Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
We have eight more NBA games Tuesday with a ton of injuries to navigate for DFS. There should be plenty of value here, allowing you to play whoever you want. But who are the right and wrong plays?
Let’s break it down.
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Bulls @ Pacers preview
CHI -1, total: 226
We’ll once again have to keep tabs on the Pacers injury reports throughout the day. Malcolm Brogdon practiced Monday, but Domantas Sabonis didn’t participate with a sprained ankle. It sounds like Brogdon has a much better chance of returning, but we’ll just have to wait and see. With Brogdon and Sabonis both ranking inside the top-seven in the NBA in touches per game on the season, their absences are clearly extremely impactful. Over the last two games, T.J. McConnell leads the Pacers in touches per game (83.0), while his 16.5 potential assists per game rank seventh in basketball during that stretch. A matchup with a Bulls team that ranks 28th against dimers (per our advanced DvP tool) and allows the third-most assists per game to opposing point guards (9.08) should suit McConnell well. Of course, it would suit Brogdon well if he’s active. If he suits up, I have interest at just $6,800 on DraftKings. Chicago is also coughing up the most points per game to opposing pick and roll ball handlers on the season (24.0). And with Sabonis off the floor this season, Brogdon is sporting a 28% usage rate, 17% rebounding rate and 21% assist rate, while averaging 1.33 fantasy points per minute in the split. You also have to love Myles Turner here, especially if Sabonis remains sidelined. His rebounding rate jumps up to 24% with Sabonis off the floor this season, while his usage rate is right around the same mark. According to our advanced DVP, the Bulls rank 24th against rim protectors on the year, while they are also coughing up the most blocks per game to opposing centers (3.19). Finally, Doug McDermott would likely remain in the starting five if Sabonis is out, which often leads to an uptick in rebounding. You can’t always count on rebounds from McDermott but at $4,100 on DK, he’d be worth a look if Sabonis sits.
In five games since joining the Bulls, Nikola Vucevic is sporting a healthy 25% usage rate and 32% rebounding rate, while averaging 1.39 fantasy points per minute. It obviously isn’t the same as his massive usage before leaving Orlando but Vucevic has remained a very good fantasy player with Chicago, averaging 43.0 fantasy points per game. During that same five-game stretch, Zach LaVine is still sporting a 32.3% usage rate, though he has been under a fantasy point per minute. His price is all the way down to $7,800 on DraftKings, which certainly makes him interesting on this slate. Meanwhile, both Tomas Satoransky and Patrick Williams make for viable plays at their price tags, especially with both players locked into the starting lineup for Chicago.
Lakers @ Raptors preview
TOR -2, total: 210.5
The Raptors, who are already without Kyle Lowry, were also without Fred VanVleet Monday. That resulted in Malachi Flynn getting the start and scoring 43 fantasy points, giving him 16 real points in each of his last two games. He’s still in play with Lowry out but if VanVleet sits again, Flynn will hover around must-play territory. We also saw De'Andre Bembry enter the starting lineup and score 35.2 fantasy points, while leading the Raptors in touches for the game (76). Still minimum salary on DK, Bembry could be a huge part of your roster construction process if VanVleet is still sidelined. And of course, Pascal Siakam should continue to see plenty of usage and provide a very strong floor and a reasonable ceiling.
Dennis Schroder continues to handle the ball a lot for the Lakers. Over the last 10 games, Schroder actually leads the NBA in touches per game (96.8), while ranking ninth in the league in average time of possession per game during that span (7.4 minutes). He remains my favorite play from this team, while Kyle Kuzma is viable at $6,800 with LeBron James and Anthony Davis still out. Meanwhile, Andre Drummond, who has missed the last two games with a toe injury, is listed as questionable to play here. If he sits again, you have to feel pretty good about Montrezl Harrell at just $6,100 on DK.
76ers @ Celtics preview
PHI -1, total: 222
Joel Embiid returned Saturday after a 10-game absence but the 76ers decided to rest him on the second end of a back-to-back following his return. He’ll suit up here, but we don’t know if he is going to play his normal minutes, though he did play 29 in his first game back. Embiid is priced at $10,200, so it isn’t as if he’s at a discount, which puts him more in the GPP consideration for me. Of course, we know the upside, especially against a Boston frontcourt that really has no one capable of slowing him down. Meanwhile, Ben Simmons has been struggling as of late, as he’s been under 40 fantasy points in eight consecutive games. His price is very fair at $8,500 on DK and we know when he’s on his game, the floor is very high. I just don’t view him as a core play, especially with Embiid back in the lineup. The same can be said about Tobias Harris, though he’s been better than Simmons lately. Both of their price tags are very fair, however.
For the Celtics, no one really stands out as elite plays or anything. We know the ceiling and volume that Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown possess but this Philadelphia defense is as good as any in basketball when Embiid is patrolling the middle. Robert Williams has been posting some fantastic numbers over the last month or so but a matchup with Embiid is worrisome, especially since he is drawing a foul on around 21% of his shot attempts this season, one of the highest rates in the NBA.
Pelicans @ Hawks preview
ATL -3.5, total: 224.5
The Pelicans are once again all over the injury report. Both Zion Williamson and Brandon Ingram are listed as questionable for this game, while Steven Adams is also questionable with a concussion. Lonzo Ball, however, returned to the lineup last game and thrived, scoring 27 points to go along with nine assists, four rebounds and eight triples. Meanwhile, Nickeil Alexander-Walker has already been ruled out with an ankle injury, so there is a chance that Ball runs the Pelicans offense again. With both Williamson and Ingram off the floor this season, Ball is sporting a solid 25.2% usage rate and 19% assist rate, while averaging 1.22 fantasy points per minute. And with Alexander-Walker and Kira Lewis out, the minutes should remain high for Ball. Isaiah Thomas is likely to make his New Orleans debut Tuesday, but you cannot feel good about paying $5,100 for him here. Jaxson Hayes, meanwhile, could become a value play again at $4,100 if Adams is out with the concussion. The Pelicans are arguably the most important piece of that puzzle that is this NBA slate.
For the Hawks, John Collins and De'Andre Hunter remain out of the lineup. Bogdan Bogdanovic has been tremendous as of late and has now logged at least 33 minutes in four straight games. With both Collins and Hunter off the floor this season, Bogdanovic is averaging right around a fantasy point per minute, though Trae Young’s usage rate is through the roof in the split, hovering right around the 41% mark. New Orleans has struggled to protect the paint this season, coughing up the fourth-highest field goal percentage in the league at the rim (66.8%), which could bode well for Young, who is averaging 19.7 drives per game on the season, good for the third-most in the league. That obviously also sets up nicely for Clint Capela, as 80% of his field goal attempts this season have come from within four feet of the basket. His shot attempts have also been up a bit in Collins’ absence as of late, which boosts both his floor and ceiling when you consider how much of a lock he is to grab rebounds. I am also perfectly fine with Danilo Gallinari at $5,700. Despite coming off the bench, he’s posted consecutive double-doubles and is sporting a strong 18% rebounding rate with Collins and Hunter off the floor this season.
Grizzlies @ Heat preview
MIA -5, total: 216
Once again, I am struggling to get past Bam Adebayo’s $8,300 price tag on DraftKings. I would play him against any defense at that price, especially a Memphis unit that is allowing the fourth-most points per possession (1.22) and third-highest field goal percentage (58.7%) to opposing roll men out of the pick and roll. That bodes well for Adebayo, who is averaging 4.4 points per game as the roll man this season, good for the eighth-most in the NBA. Bam is also averaging a very strong 1.39 points per possession off the play type. Jimmy Butler is also once again firmly in play, as the floor continues to be sky high. However, at $9,000, I think I prefer other players around that price range, though Butler being only small forward eligible makes him more enticing, for sure. Meanwhile, Victor Oladipo’s arrival looks like it is going to hurt the fantasy potential of Tyler Herro, Duncan Robinson and Goran Dragic. And when all of these guards are active, they really won’t be on my radar.
The Grizzlies, meanwhile, aren’t all that appealing here. Ja Morant hasn’t shown a very consistent ceiling this season, which makes it tough to consider him if he isn’t in the greatest of matchups, especially when you consider how loaded the point guard position tends to be. Jonas Valanciunas has often been my favorite player from Memphis, but this just isn’t a great spot. If looking at the Grizzlies, I actually think one of Grayson Allen or Dillon Brooks could surprise here. Both players will likely play 27-30 minutes, but they are facing a Miami team that gives it up from three. 40.8% of the points scored against the Heat this season have come from beyond the arc this season, which is the highest mark in all of basketball. And per our advanced DVP tool, Miami ranks 28th against shooters and 25th against opposing bench players.
Pistons @ Nuggets preview
DEN -13.5, total: 214.5
Mason Plumlee rested Monday night but should be back in the lineup for this game. He is facing his former team here (if anyone cares) and there is nothing wrong with this matchup. Plumlee has been very involved as of late, sporting a 33% rebounding rate and 12% assist rate over the last two weeks, while averaging 1.14 fantasy points per minute during that stretch. Even though he isn’t going to play more than 30-32 minutes, $5,900 is too cheap of a price tag for Plumlee when you consider how involved he is in all three major statistics. Jerami Grant is also facing his former team and is coming off a game on Monday where he scored 21 points to go along with five boards and five assists. It is possible that he rests on the second end of a back-to-back and if he does, players like Hamidou Diallo and Saddiq Bey would see a bump. But per usual, the Pistons aren’t very exciting.
For the Pistons, I really like this spot for Jamal Murray. He is facing a Pistons defense that is coughing up the fifth-highest field goal percentage to opposing players off handoffs this season (44.4%), while Murray is averaging 3.3 points per game off handoffs, the second-most in the NBA. Detroit also ranks 22nd against opposing scorers on the season. Meanwhile, after a slight slump, Nikola Jokic is coming off a 53.75-point outing, falling one rebound shy of a triple-double. He still leads the NBA in touches per game for the season (101.3), while posting a 31% rebounding rate, 24% assist rate and 29.2% usage rate. $10,500 on DK is still way too cheap for arguably the best player in fantasy, especially in a fantastic matchup. Finally, both Michael Porter and Aaron Gordon have been very good as of late. Gordon’s usage isn’t as high but he’s getting so many good looks alongside Jokic and company. I think both are in play at their respective price tags.
Bucks @ Warriors preview
MIL -6.5, total: 234
Giannis Antetokounmpo missed Sunday’s game but is probable to play in this game. These are two of the fastest-paced teams in basketball, which certainly bodes well for Antetokounmpo and his league-leading 8.6 transition points per game. His 7.1 possessions per game off the play type also lead the league. $10,700 on DK is still a bit too cheap for Giannis. Jrue Holiday, meanwhile, is playing some terrific basketball right now and remains perfectly in play, while I also have no issue with Khris Middleton at $7,700.
For Golden State, you have to like Stephen Curry once again. 38.8% of the points scored against Milwaukee this season have come from beyond the arc, the fourth-highest mark in the NBA. That is obviously enticing when a player like Curry is on the other side. Draymond Green is also a solid option at $6,700, as the peripherals are always going to be there. For the season, Green is sporting a 21% rebounding rate and team-high 28% assist rate, while averaging a fantasy point per minute. Finally, I continue to prefer Kelly Oubre at his price tag than Andrew Wiggins at $7,200.
Blazers @ Clippers preview
LAC -5, total: 229
With Jusuf Nurkic out for the Blazers, Enes Kanter becomes very intriguing at only $6,000 on DraftKings. With Nurkic off the floor this season, Kanter is sporting a whopping 44% rebounding rate, while averaging 1.15 fantasy points per minute in the split. Meanwhile, a $9,400 price tag on Damian Lillard is also going to be tough to ignore, regardless of matchup or situation. He still scored 35 fantasy points in 25 minutes during Saturday’s blowout victory over the Thunder and this game should be much, much closer. I also have zero issues with CJ McCollum at $8,000 and you get that late-night hammer with this being the last game of the slate.
For the Clippers, Paul George remains pretty cheap at $8,100 on DK, putting him in play against a weak Portland defense. The Blazers are coughing up the fourth-most points per possession to opposing players off screens this season (1.04), while George is averaging 2.4 points per game off screens on the year, good for the ninth-most in the NBA. Kawhi Leonard, meanwhile, remains very safe, scoring at least 43 fantasy points in nine of his last 10 games. Finally, with Serge Ibaka still sidelined, you can take a shot on Ivica Zubac at center, who is sporting a 33% rebounding rate with Ibaka off the floor this season, while averaging just under a fantasy point per minute in the split.
