Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Each day, we are going to try and give you a quick preview of today’s main slate and any interesting betting angles that we spot. Take a peek.
All betting lines and information are from the FanDuel Sportsbook.
Philadelphia Phillies at Washington Nationals betting breakdown
Phillies (-102), Nationals (-116)
Total: 9.0 runs
Chase Anderson (R) vs. Paolo Espino (R)
Three things to know
- I truly thought Chase Anderson was out of baseball. He sports an ugly 5.55 xFIP this season in 44 innings.
- Among qualified hitters, Bryce Harper one of two in baseball sporting a .300 average, .400 on-base percentage, and .500 slugging percentage.
- Washington may have traded away Trea Turner, but they are fourth in team wOBA in the last seven days (.359!).
Best bets: The OVER. This line seems way too low.
Baltimore Orioles at New York Yankees betting breakdown
Orioles (+225), Yankees (-275)
Total: 9.0 runs
Matt Harvey (R) vs. Jameson Taillon (R)
Three things to know
- Baltimore has been smoking hot at the plate recently. The Orioles rank fourth in team wOBA over the last week.
- Can the new acquisitions for the pinstripes fix things? Let’s hope so, as they have been a middling offense all year.
- Is this version of Matt Harvey for real? He has a 2.45 ERA and 0.95 WHIP in the last month.
Best bets: The Orioles got pounded by the Yankees Tuesday, and I expect another monster run-scoring effort here.
Cleveland Guardians at Toronto Blue Jays betting breakdown
Guardians (+176), Blue Jays (-210)
Total: 9.5 runs
J.C. Mejía (R) vs. Steven Matz (L)
Three things to know
- More fireworks Tuesday, as George Springer and Teoscar Hernández smacked long balls. Can they keep it up?
- The Jays are an offense that’s a bit scary – they are torrid at the dish with a .207 ISO mark.
- J.C. Mejía’s pitch-to-contact approach (21.5% strikeout rate, 9.2% swinging-strike rate) could be awfully similar to Zach Plesac, who was pounded Tuesday.
Best bets: Another same-game parlay, and find yourself a home run prop or two here.
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New York Mets at Miami Marlins betting breakdown
Mets (-154), Marlins (+130)
Total: 9.0 runs
Carlos Carrasco (R) vs. Zach Thompson (R)
Three things to know
- Carlos Carrasco makes his second start of the year, and he was solid in his first, allowing a single run in four frames.
- The Mets are fading in the NL East – Francisco Lindor and Jacob deGrom cannot return fast enough.
- Miami is still struggling at the plate. They rank fifth worst in team WOBA in the last seven days and second worst on the year.
Best bets: The UNDER. These offenses stink big time.
Boston Red Sox at Detroit Tigers betting breakdown
Red Sox (-148), Tigers (+126)
Total: 9.0 runs
Eduardo Rodríguez (L) vs. Casey Mize (R)
Three things to know
- Detroit has been cooking at the dish – is this the real Tigers offense?
- Strangely, the Red Sox are the struggling offense. They only have a .292 wOBA in the last week. They were limited to only two tallies yesterday.
- Traditional metrics suggest a struggle (5.46 ERA) but Eduardo Rodríguez (3.50 FIP) has been better than suggested.
Best bets: The UNDER. Eduardo Rodríguez has been solid, and Boston is struggling.
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Kansas City Royals at Chicago White Sox betting breakdown
Royals (+235), White Sox (-290)
Total: 9.0 runs
Carlos Hernández (R) vs. Lucas Giolito (R)
Three things to know
- The Royals have been in trouble this year, and their offense shows it – their 24.4% strikeout rate in the last week shows they are whiffing aplenty.
- The White Sox have struggled at the dish recently, logging a .308 wOBA in the last week. Eloy Jiménez returned from a brief absence Tuesday, can he spark them offensively?
- Lucas Giolito is flexing those muscles – in the last month, he sports a 1.71 ERA and 1.03 WHIP in 26.1 IP.
Best bets: This feels like a blood bath in waiting – I’d find a lot of White Sox bets to enjoy this evening.
Atlanta Braves at St. Louis Cardinals betting breakdown
Braves (-118), Cardinals (+104)
Total: 9.0 runs
Drew Smyly (L) vs. J.A. Happ (L)
Three things to know
- I am truly confused on what the Cardinals are doing – why trade for poorly performing arms like Jon Lester and J.A. Happ?
- The Birds have been awful at the dish recently – their strikeout rate is in the top-10 worst in the league, and they’ve recorded a .291 wOBA.
- Tuesday was ugly, and I would expect more of the same – the Braves’ .324 wOBA without Ronald Acuña Jr. is impressive.
Best bets: Another same-gamer here – the Cardinals are just a bad team and I’d expect Happ to get tagged like Lester did.
Chicago Cubs at Colorado Rockies betting breakdown
Cubs (+152), Rockies (-180)
Total: 11.0 runs
Alec Mills (R) vs. Jon Gray (R)
Three things to know
- Colorado’s 27.6% strikeout rate in the last week is the second-worst mark in the league.
- Who are Kris Bryant, Javier Báez and Anthony Rizzo? The Cubs have cooked at the plate with a .313 wOBA recently.
- Surprisingly, Jon Gray was not moved at the trade deadline, but he’s been solid this year with a 3.62 ERA and 1.22 WHIP.
Best bets: Let’s hope Mills is better than Davies was Tuesday, but this was ugly. Bet the OVER.
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San Francisco Giants at Arizona Diamondbacks betting breakdown
Giants (-184), Diamondbacks (+154)
Total: 9.0 runs
Kevin Gausman (R) vs. Zac Gallen (R)
Three things to know
- Is something wrong with Kevin Gausman? He has been rocked for a 5.11 ERA and 1.54 WHIP in the last month.
- On the other side of the bump, Zac Gallen has not found his form. His marks in the last 30 days – 5.74 ERA, 1.28 WHIP.
- Both teams sport strikeout rates greater than 24.0% in the last week.
Best bets: With Ketel Marte back, I’m going to go with a shocker here and bet the over. I think the runs are a plenty.
Houston Astros at Los Angeles Dodgers betting breakdown
Astros (+188), Dodgers (-225)
Total: 9.0 runs
Jake Odorizzi (R) vs. Max Scherzer (R)
Three things to know
- Mookie Betts, second baseman – has a nice ring to it, doesn’t it? He made his third appearance there Tuesday.
- Houston has been whiffing at an 18.9% clip in the last week, but the Dodgers have been tough, too, with a 20.9% mark over the same span.
- Both teams have been scorching at the plate, ranking in the top-10 in wOBA, slugging percentage, and ISO.
Best bets: I expect Dodgers Stadium to be electric with Mad Max’s debut – bet a same-game parlay here.
(Get all my MLB betting picks here)
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