Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Each day, we are going to try and give you a quick preview of today’s main slate and any interesting betting angles that we spot. Take a look. All betting lines and information are from the FanDuel Sportsbook.
(Note: Some games have no lines for Friday because of trades and aren’t included below, and other lines could shift between now and the deadline if more trades come down. Monitor the lines closely.)
Philadelphia Phillies at Pittsburgh Pirates betting breakdown
Phillies (-130), Pirates (+110)
Total: 9.0 runs
Vince Velasquez (R) vs. Wil Crowe (R)
Three things to know
- Pittsburgh has fallen back to earth recently. They are third worst in team wOBA in the last week (.252 wOBA, .117 ISO).
- The Phillies have started to cook at the dish recently, ranking inside the top 10 in nearly all categories. Are they finally hitting their stride?
- We thought this may be a new pitcher, but it’s the same old Vince Velasquez — he’s been hammered (no pun intended) by the long ball, allowing 1.92 HR/9 this season.
Best bets: Despite Velasquez’s struggles, a F3/F5 bet on the Phillies and their surging offense makes a lot of sense.
Kansas City Royals at Toronto Blue Jays betting breakdown
Royals (+176), Blue Jays (-210)
Total: 10.0 runs
Daniel Lynch (L) vs. Ross Stripling (R)
Three things to know
- Daniel Lynch turned in his finest outing as a big-leaguer last time out, but he still owns some ugly season-long metrics. Which is the real Lynch?
- With George Springer back in the mix, this offense is frightening, and they’ve logged a .350 wOBA and whiffing only 18.5% of the time in the last week.
- Jorge Soler has surged since the All-Star break, and KC’s .250 ISO is the best in the league over the last seven days.
Best bets: A same-game parlay on FanDuel seems obvious here. Lynch has been bad and the Jays hammer righties.
Cincinnati Reds at New York Mets betting breakdown
Reds (+110), Mets (-130)
Total: 8.0 runs
Sonny Gray (R) vs. Carlos Carrasco (R)
Three things to know
- It’s hard to figure out if it’s the sticky stuff ban, but Sonny Gray has been rocked recently. Over the last month he’s been posterized for a 7.20 ERA.
- Luckily for Gray, he’s been bolstered by an incredible offense. The Reds — even with a banged-up Nick Castellanos — have come alive recently, logging a .394 wOBA.
- Carlos Carrasco makes his return — what should we expect out of him?
Best bets: I am betting the OVER. Gray has struggled and it’s hard to get a feel for what Carrasco will do.
Baltimore Orioles at Detroit Tigers betting breakdown
Orioles (+122), Tigers (-144)
Total: 9.5 runs
Matt Harvey (R) vs. Tarik Skubal (L)
Three things to know
- Which is the real Matt Harvey? He’s logged a 6.65 ERA this year, but he’s been better in the last month with a 3.60 ERA and 1.05 WHIP.
- Tarik Skubal has been a breakout star of 2021 — he’s logged six wins and recorded 113 whiffs over 99.2 IP.
- The young Tigers are surging at the plate — among the league’s elite now in terms of offense, they’ve recorded a .344 wOBA and .193 ISO.
Best bets: I like the Tigers here — a F3/F5 seems likely and I don’t believe we are seeing a new Dark Knight.
Boston Red Sox at Tampa Bay Rays betting breakdown
Red Sox (+120), Rays (-142)
Total: 9.0 runs
Martín Pérez (L) vs. Josh Fleming (L)
Three things to know
- These two teams are the inverse of one another — the Red Sox have struggled at the dish (24th in team wOBA), but the Rays are ninth.
- Martín Pérez is skating by on some scary numbers — his 43.1% ground-ball rate is fine but his 19.6% strikeout rate is a bit perturbing.
- Josh Fleming is a redux of Martín Pérez, perhaps to an even greater extent — he has struck out 13.9% of batters this year with a 57.7% ground-ball rate.
Best bets: The OVER. I know Boston has struggled, but neither of these hurlers is particularly scarier.
New York Yankees at Miami Marlins betting breakdown
Yankees (-156), Marlins (+132)
Total: 8.0 runs
Jameson Taillon (R) vs. Zach Thompson (R)
Three things to know
- Can Anthony Rizzo and Joey Gallo help cure the Yankee offense? They are in the bottom third of the league in the last week with a .303 wOBA mark, including an elevated 26.2% strikeout rate.
- Miami has waived the white flag, trading Starling Marte to the Athletics. This offense is in trouble.
- Do the Marlins have an infinite stable of arms at their disposal? Thompson has been brilliant with a 26.7% strikeout rate and 41.9% ground-ball rate.
Best bets: The UNDER. Especially with a game in Miami, I don’t like the makeup of these two offenses.
Milwaukee Brewers at Atlanta Braves betting breakdown
Brewers (-134), Braves (+114)
Total: 8.5 runs
Corbin Burnes (R) vs. Touki Toussaint (R)
Three things to know
- Corbin Burnes has been out-of-this-world good, with 146 strikeouts in 102 innings. Can he win the NL Cy Young? Check out Gilles Gallant’s breakdown of the Cy Young odds.
- It is a small sample size for sure (13.2 IP), but Touki Toussaint has whiffed 15 batters and looks to be a different pitcher.
- Which Braves team is real? They have been great at the plate, but they have slid to 12th in team wOBA.
Best bets: The UNDER. I think Toussaint has made very real incremental gains here.
Cleveland Guardians at Chicago White Sox betting breakdown
Guardians (+164), White Sox (-196)
Total: 8.5 runs
J.C. Mejía (R) vs. Lance Lynn (R)
Three things to know
- The Indians traded away Cesar Hernandez, and this team already was struggling at the plate ranking fifth worst in team wOBA.
- Is Lance Lynn going to win the AL Cy Young? He’s been incredible with a 3.15 FIP, 1.91 ERA and 1.02 WHIP with 115 strikeouts this year.
- After adding Eloy Jiménez into the mix, the White Sox couldn’t time this addition better as they have struggled with a .233 wOBA in the last week.
Best bets: I know that the South Siders have stunk, but this matchup is lopsided. A same-game parlay or F3/F5 bet seems obvious.
Minnesota Twins at St. Louis Cardinals betting breakdown
Twins (-122), Cardinals (+104)
Total: 8.0 runs
José Berríos (R) vs. Wade LeBlanc (L)
Three things to know
- Are the Cardinals waking up at the plate? Struggling all year at the dish, they clock in seventh in team wOBA over the last week (.353).
- The Cardinals leaning on veteran Wade LeBlanc is not a good sign — the southpaw has logged a 4.58 ERA and 1.56 WHIP in 35.1 IP.
- Will José Berríos be moved before the deadline? He’s been solid in the last month with a 3.66 ERA and 0.94 WHIP in the last month.
Best bets: Keep an eye on Berrios making the start, but I like the OVER and the Cardinals here.
Oakland Athletics at Los Angeles Angels betting breakdown
Athletics (-122), Angels (+104)
Total: 8.5 runs
Chris Bassitt (R) vs. Patrick Sandoval (L)
Three things to know
- This is going to be one hell of a matchup, with two excellent offenses and arguably the best pitching matchup of the day.
- Chris Bassitt has been a true workhorse this season — he ranks second in the league in innings pitched, and his 3.62 FIP ain’t too shabby.
- Patrick Sandvoal has been a revelation as of late — he owns a sub-3.00 ERA, sub-1.00 WHIP and 35 strikeouts in 27.2 IP in the last month.
Best bets: The UNDER. These arms have been outstanding recently and I’d expect them to keep cookin’.
Los Angeles Dodgers at Arizona Diamondbacks betting breakdown
Dodgers (-190), Diamondbacks (+160)
Total: 8.5 runs
Tony Gonsolin (R) vs. Zac Gallen (R)
Three things to know
- Has Gallen the same old pitcher we know? His 27.0% strikeout rate is solid, but the 11.5% walk rate is a bit scary, and the 1.24 HR/9 is trending towards the worst mark of his career.
- These are two struggling offenses — in the last week, they are both in the bottom five in team wOBA.
- Can Tony Gonsolin control the walks? Like Gallen, he whiffs plenty, but a double-digit walk rate (14.3%) has gotten him in some serious trouble.
Best bets: The Dodgers just get richer and richer. Adding Trea Turner to this lineup (he may not be available tonight) makes this a very one-sided affair. Pound a same-game parlay here.
Houston Astros at San Francisco Giants betting breakdown
Astros (+100), Giants (-108)
Total: 8.0 runs
Framber Valdez (L) vs. Kevin Gausman (R)
Three things to know
- The Astros remain the toughest team in the league to strike out, and their 18.1% strikeout rate over the last week is even better than their season-long mark.
- The Giants, meanwhile, are the opposite — they have whiffed at a rapid clip of 28.6% of the time in the same time frame.
- Quietly, is Kevin Gausman in the Cy Young hunt? All signs point to yes. While he was roughed up in his last outing, Gausman owns season-long marks of a 2.21 ERA and 0.92 WHIP.
Best bets: The UNDER. Both hurlers are adept, and both offenses have brighter days ahead of them — it just may not be here.
Colorado Rockies at San Diego Padres betting breakdown
Rockies (+164), Padres (-196)
Total: 8.0 runs
Jon Gray (R) vs. Ryan Weathers (L)
Three things to know
- Belabored by injuries, Ryan Weathers has been outstanding for the Padres — the young southpaw has posted a 2.73 ERA and 1.15 over 62.2 IP this season.
- Will Jon Gray be on the move? He’s been a popular name, and his 3.67 ERA and 1.22 WHIP has shown he can pitch both inside and outside of Denver.
- San Diego’s offense hasn’t been clicking this year, and they are only 20th in team wOBA over the last week (.305).
Best bets: Colorado is a hefty underdog whenever the team leaves friendly Coors, but Gray has been really good this season. I am actually backing the road Dogs — pending he still makes this start.
(Get all my MLB betting picks here)
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