The One Hitter: MLB game-by-game betting breakdown (7/28)

Each day, we are going to try and give you a quick preview of today’s main slate and any interesting betting angles that we spot. Take a look.

Marlins (-104), Orioles (-112)
Total: 9.5 runs
Jordan Holloway (R) vs. Jorge López (R)

Jordan Holloway is a talented young arm, but how deep will he pitch? In three starts, he’s only reached five innings once.
I’m unsure if it’s innings management, but in his last eight starts, Jorge López has only reached the fifth one time.
These are two top-15 offenses in terms of wOBA – are these pitchers about to get slammed?

Best bets: I’d take the OVER here. It hit Tuesday, and with Lopez on the bump, this could get crushed.

Nationals (+188), Phillies (-225)
Total: 8.0 runs
Patrick Corbin (L) vs. Zack Wheeler (R)

Zack Wheeler could win the NL Cy Young. He’s whiffed 160 batters with a gorgeous 2.37 ERA this season.
Patrick Corbin is the anti-Zack Wheeler – he’s struggled mightily this year with a 5.11 FIP, including an ugly 1.64 HR/9.
These are two top-15 offenses in terms of wOBA – are these pitchers about to get slammed?

Best bets: A same-game parlay with the Phillies. With Trea Turner out with COVID-19, stack the Phillies.

Braves (+114), Mets (-134)
Total: 7.5 runs
Max Fried (L) vs. Tylor Megill (R)

Despite losing Ronald Acuña Jr., the Braves are still hitting well – in the last two weeks, they rank 13th in team wOBA (.328).
The Mets without Francisco Lindor have been ballin’ — they have been clubbing the ball (.209 ISO), and rank second in wOBA and wRC+.
Tylor Megill has been incredible this year. In 30 innings, he’s whiffed 33 batters and recorded a 2.10 ERA and 1.10 WHIP.

Best bets: Quietly, these pitchers are both DEALING. Take the UNDER.

Yankees (+110), Rays (-130)
Total: 8.5 runs
Nestor Cortes Jr. (L) vs. Michael Wacha (R)

With Nestor Cortes Jr. on the mound, it’s likely a bullpen day for New York. Cortes has recorded a nasty 31.2% K rate this year.
If Michael Wacha wants a postseason rotation spot, he’s gotta curb the long ball. He’s allowed 1.90 HR/9 in 2021.
Tampa has recorded nearly a 30% K rate against lefties this year.

Best bets: With Tampa’s southpaw struggles and the game in Tampa, take the UNDER. It hit Tuesday.

Reds (+160), Cubs (-190)
Total: 10.5 runs
Tyler Mahle (R) vs. Zach Davies (R)

Tyler Mahle is fading, and fast – he was bombed by a poor Cardinals offense last time out, and he has to stop with the walks (four last outing).
Zach Davies has been better lately, but what’s with the free passes? A 10.9% walk rate would be the worst mark of his career.
The Cubs were in the bottom five in team wOBA but have risen to 21st in the last few weeks.

Best bets: These are two bad arms. The OVER. And home run props as well.

Diamondbacks (-108), Rangers (-108)
Total: 9.0 runs
Madison Bumgarner (L) vs. Jordan Lyles (R)

Which MadBum is the real team? In the last two starts, he’s recorded a 1.64 ERA and 0.91 WHIP, but he owns a 5.09 ERA for the season.
The Rangers offense is awful – they rank dead last in team wOBA the last two weeks (.215) with a 26.1% strikeout rate.
Jordan Lyles is struggling this season – owning a 5.53 FIP, he’s posted below-average marks with an 18.0% strikeout rate and allowing 2.01 HR/9.

Best bets: I know that Texas stinks recently, but these pitchers are bad. Slam the OVER.

White Sox (-178), Royals (+150)
Total: 10.0 runs
Lucas Giolito (R) vs. Kris Bubic (L)

I know Giolito had that ugly Patriots Day start, but he’s been brilliant recently, recording a 1.20 ERA and 0.93 WHIP in the last two weeks.
Can the White Sox get things going? They rank 25th in team wOBA with a 24% strikeout rate over the last two weeks.
Kansas City remains as a bottom third offense (.302 wOBA). This offense has definitely disappointed in 2021.

Best bets: This is a same-game parlay. Lucas Giolito has been cooking recently.

Rockies (+176), Angels (-210)
Total: 9.5 runs
Chi Chi González (R) vs. Andrew Heaney (L)

I don’t know why Chi Chi keeps getting the ball – he’s posted a 6.06 ERA and 1.46 WHIP this year.
The Rockies struck out 10 times the last two games – can strikeout darling Andrew Heaney (105 Ks this season) do it again?
Just imagine if the Angels were healthy – a lineup including Mike Trout and Anthony Rendon is terrifying.

Best bets: The OVER was smoked Tuesday – and I see it happening again here. This feels like a no-brainer.

Dodgers (-134), Giants (+114)
Total: 7.5 runs
Walker Buehler (R) vs. Anthony DeSclafani (R)

As weird as it sounds, Walker Buehler is a dark horse for Cy Young. He’s been even better over the last month, logging a 1.69 ERA and 0.88 WHIP spanning 32 innings.
The Giants cut down on whiffs versus lefties, but they don’t hit them very well either – and they have struggled recently at the plate with a 25.8% strikeout rate.
Tony Disco has been incredible in year one of his Giants tenure — he’s recorded a 2.87 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in 119.1 innings pitched.

Best bets: I like the UNDER again. This was a 2-1 nailbiter Tuesdaynight, and I see it being tight on Wednesday.