Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Thursday, July 29th is rapidly approaching, which means so is the NBA Draft. While there appears to be less “buzz” about star players in this draft, this is an incredibly deep draft class throughout the first round. This draft is what I expect teams to do, not what I would do, with the goal to help you find the best value for your NBA Draft props.
Last year my mock draft graded out well, getting exactly six picks right, 25 of the 30 first rounders, 13 picks within two picks and 16 picks within five picks correct. The highlight of last year’s draft was the beautiful +1800 call of Patrick Williams to go fourth overall. I don’t see that sort of value in this year’s draft, at least yet, but there are still some strong values to be found. Be sure to check out all of my NBA Draft props in the FTNBets Bet Tracker.
You can bet on the NBA Draft at Tipico Sportsbook and play the props at PrizePicks.
(What is Gilles Gallant’s favorite plus-money bet for the NBA Draft? Check out his Dog of the Day.)
NBA Mock Draft 2021
A look at how I’m approaching the 2021 NBA Draft.
1. Detroit Pistons: Cade Cunningham, G, Oklahoma State
Cade is the best player in the draft with the highest ceiling. Yes, rumors are saying that the Pistons are considering one of Cade, Jalen Green or Evan Mobley, but it’s hard to imagine this is anyone but Cade here.
I am not betting on this one, as Cade is as high as -8000 at DraftKings Sportsbook, no value left.
2. Houston Rockets: Jalen Green, G, G League
Jalen Green’s ceiling is what excites people. With the Rockets unable to work out Evan Mobley, while also being an organization that prioritizes guard and wing play over bigs, unless Green goes first he feels like a lock to go second.
Best Bet: Green to be drafted second (-360 at FanDuel Sportsbook). Cunningham is a near lock to go first, if you believe he is going first you can get Green at -360 on FD who should be locked in at number two to Houston.
3. Cleveland Cavaliers: Evan Mobley, C, USC
This is a boring pick in my eyes, but also the right pick. Expect the Cavs to kick-start another rebuild with Evan Mobley who is the stereotypical modern day center with perimeter instincts and skill. The opposite of Andre Drummond.
Best Bet: Exact order is -250 for Cunningham, Green, Mobley. Mobley is -225 to be the third overall pick, so take Mobley third overall on DraftKings Sportsbook.
4. Toronto Raptors: Jalen Suggs, PG, Gonzaga
Scottie Barnes is flying up draft boards, but I expect Jalen Suggs to hold him off and get selected fourth overall. His instincts, size, athleticism, attitude and skill fit any team’s system.
Best Bet: Exact order for the top four – Cunningham, Green, Mobley, Suggs at -138 on FanDuel Sportsbook.
5. Orlando Magic: Scottie Barnes, F, Florida State
Barnes is the hottest name in the draft, but I do not expect him to leap one of the consensus top four. This is a good landing spot for Barnes where he can potentially play alongside another Florida State alum in Jonathan Isaac. Barnes has the athleticism and attitude that teams love.
Best Bet: Barnes to go 5th overall at -195 on FanDuel Sportsbook.
6. Oklahoma City Thunder: Jonathan Kuminga, F, G League
This is where the draft gets interesting in my eyes, as it’s difficult to predict what the Thunder do in the first draft of their complete rebuild. I’m torn between Kumina and James Bouknight, with me leaning Kuminga because he is the more raw player of the two with the higher ceiling.
7. Golden State Warriors (via T-Wolves): James Bouknight, G, UConn
Bob Myers said that the Warriors are unlikely to make a trade but also said “as of now.” Myers also stated that the Warriors are looking for plug-and-play talents at both 7 and 14. Assuming the Warriors don’t trade out, that comment to me suggests three players: Bouknight, Franz Wagner or Moses Moody. Bouknight’s ability to shoot fits well with Golden State. If the Thunder select Bouknight, I do think there is a strong chance the Warriors chase Kuminga’s ceiling.
Best Bet: Bouknight UNDER 7.5 on BetMGM.
8. Orlando Magic (via Bulls): Alperen Sengun, F/C, Besiktas
The Magic don’t have a ton of assets and are a team that can’t attract major free agents. That means they need to chase ceilings in drafts. Sengun is a hyper-efficient teenager from Europe who shows shades of undersized Nikola Vucevic. He averaged 20 and 10 in Turkey and won Turkish League MVP at just 18.
9. Sacramento Kings: Franz Wagner, F, Michigan
I don’t understand Wagner’s offseason workout program, where he was not a part of the NBA combine while also attracting very little buzz for teams he worked out for. That said, Wagner did work out with current Sacramento King Harrison Barnes. I’m not chasing the Barnes connection, but Wagner is the type of player who fits the Kings current roster as a three-point threat with defensive versatility.
10. Memphis Grizzlies (via New Orleans Pelicans): Josh Giddey, PG/SF, Australia
The report right after the Grizzlies traded up to 10 from 17 was that they were focused on Josh Giddey. Giddey is essentially a 6’8 PG with really strong vision while also being able to operate off the ball. Giddey is a nice fit with the Grizzlies as a secondary ball-handler and floor-spacer for Ja Morant.
11. Charlotte Hornets: Corey Kispert, G/F, Gonzaga
Michael Jordan loves college stars, and I came awfully close to mocking Davion Mitchell here just for the mayhem. That said, there is another college star that makes a lot of sense here in Corey Kispert. Kispert is one of the best shooters in the draft and is another floor-spacer to build around LaMelo Ball.
One way to bet Kispert is UNDER 13.5 on BetMGM at +130. Not a best bet, but teams love to reach on shooters.
12. San Antonio Spurs: Moses Moody, G, Arkansas
Moses Moody is one of the trendier names at the moment in the draft, but I currently have him closer to his floor (Golden State at 14). Moody is one of the better two-way players in this draft and fits well with the Spurs’ culture. I don’t think Moody falls past Pop and the Spurs at 12.
13. Indiana Pacers: Trey Murphy III, SG/SF, Virginia
Murphy is another player who has risen on draft boards over the last few weeks as a 6’9 wing who can shoot. His length and shooting project extremely well in the modern day NBA with the ability to guard three positions. This is a nice piece to fit around a win-now team for new coach Rick Carlisle.
Best Bet: Trey Murphy UNDER 18.5 (-125) at DraftKings Sportsbook.
14. Golden State Warriors: Chris Duarte, G, Oregon
The key quote from Bob Myers on Monday was that the Warriors wanted to insert plug-and-play type players at 7 and 14. Chris Duarte is the oldest player in the draft at 24, but he’s a decent enough defender who can hit shots while playing off the ball. This is a win-now pick. If Trey Murphy is available, I think the Warriors take him over Duarte.
15. Washington Wizards: Davion Mitchell, G, Baylor
I view this as NCAA Tournament darling Davion Mitchell’s floor. Mitchell is one of the best available prospects while also filling a need as a future PG for the aging Russell Westbrook. If the draft falls in this order where Trey Murphy III is not available, I also think this is a pick that has a high probability of being dealt.
16. Oklahoma City Thunder (via Celtics): Jalen Johnson, G/F, Duke
Jalen Johnson is an intriguing prospect, as he’s your prototypical point-forward. That said, his athleticism doesn’t exactly translate to that. Johnson has said he sees himself as a “big point guard” similar to Magic Johnson, and I think that has spooked some teams where they view him more as a PF or a small-ball center with the ability to switch seamlessly defensively. Still, Johnson is a high-upside pick who will have time to develop in OKC.
17. New Orleans Pelicans (via Memphis Grizzlies): Kai Jones, F/C, Texas
The Pelicans just traded two years of Steven Adams for one year of Jonas Valanciunas. While they do have Jaxson Hayes as a potential future starter, I think they look to grab one of the trendiest players of the last two weeks in Kai Jones. Jones has great size and athleticism and shot 38% from three last year.
18. Oklahoma City Thunder (via Heat): Ziaire Williams, G, Stanford
Williams fits what I expect OKC to do; draft high-upside players. He’s an oversized guard with elite length for his position who can create his own shot. He’d likely be a surefire top-10 pick if not for his abysmal past season where he only shot 29% from three.
19. New York knicks: Keon Johnson, G, Tennessee
Keon Johnson has a 48-inch vertical. I repeat, Keon Johnson has a 48-inch vertical. To be honest, I’m not entirely sure what has happened since he posted that vertical, where he seemed to be a lottery lock, to now, falling in the back-end of the first round. But teams bite on that sort of athleticism. I’ve seen a lot of mocks have Johnson to the Knicks at 21 or even slide to the late 20’s, I think they pounce on him here at 19. Johnson has all-star upside because of his size and athleticism.
20. Atlanta Hawks: Jaden Springer, G, Tennessee
Two Volunteers in back-to-back picks in the first round of an NBA draft has not happened in a while, but we are set up for just that this year. The Hawks have been desperate to find another ball-handler and back-up PG to Trae Young, and Springer fits the bill as someone who can be Trae’s backup or even play alongside him. At 6’4, Springer has the measurables to become one of the league’s better young defenders. I also think there is a strong chance the Hawks target Usman Garuba with this pick as well.
21. New York Knicks (via Mavericks): Usman Garuba, PF, Spain
If the draft falls like this, Knicks fans should be very happy, as they would have secured two of the highest upside post-lottery players in the draft. Garuba is 6’8 with a 7’2 wingspan and draws comps to Draymond Green. He’s already a good NBA defender with an NBA body, with the potential to become elite. Garuba is one of my favorite players in this draft and it pains me that I have him falling to 21.
22. Los Angeles Lakers: Jared Butler, G, Baylor
The Lakers are desperate for shooting and scorers, and Butler shot 41.6% from three last year including 22 points in the NCAA National Championship. He fits the Lakers, and quite frankly LeBron’s rookie culture as an experienced collegiate who made a run in The Big Dance. This fit makes way too much sense.
23. Houston Rockets (via Blazers): Cameron Thomas, G, LSU
The Rockets are a bit of a mystery at both 23 and 24, as they are a team in full rebuild with arguably only two assets in Kevin Porter Jr. and Christian Wood. If we want to bring Twitter into this, Cameron Thomas is a “Hooper” by all definitions as someone who is a bucket-getter. Thomas has consistent 20 PPG potential in the NBA and brings some life into this Rockets organization. My hesitancy to mocking Thomas here is that the Rockets are expected to take Jalen Green second overall, and I’m not sure if the pair are a great fit. Still, Thomas is one of the best players available at this juncture while also carrying an intriguing ceiling as a scorer, which fits the mold of a rebuilding team.
24. Houston Rockets (via Bucks): Isaiah Jackson, F/C, Kentucky
I do think the Rockets trade one of these picks, but if we’re mocking that they are holding firm, I’d expect them to gamble on a project like Isaiah Jackson. Jackson has a 7-4 wingspan but needs to bulk up. This is a pick a team makes in a full rebuild, as he has the upside of a pure rim-running center who can also handle the ball a little.
25. Los Angeles Clippers: Ayo Dosunmu, G, Illinois
I’ve seen this as a popular pick across a lot of mocks, and it adds up with the Clippers a win-now team who could use some scoring off the bench. Dosunmu has the experience to step into an NBA rotation and play right away and is one of the better shooters and scorers in this draft.
26. Denver Nuggets: Isaiah Todd, F, G League
The Nuggets have historically drafted for upside late in the first round and Todd fits that mold. Todd was one of the top high-school players in the country who skipped college and struggled in the G League. He is being mocked all over the place from late lottery to late in the second round. Late in the first round makes the most sense to me as the team will look to gamble on his upside.
Best Bet: Isaiah Todd UNDER 37.5 (-110) at BetMGM. This is FAR too high of a number here.
27. Brooklyn Nets: Sharife Cooper, G, Auburn
The biggest need the Nets have is backcourt depth, as they are not expected to bring back Spencer Dinwiddie. Cooper is going late in the first round and has an inconsistent jumpshot. That said, he is a proven playmaker, and the Nets aren’t a team that needs another scorer.
28. Philadelphia 76ers: Joshua Primo, G/F, Alabama
The Sixers are obviously a win-now, and there is a decent chance this pick gets dealt. If the Sixers stay at 28, Primo has scoring upside and already carries value as a shooter, something we know Daryl Morey covets.
29. Phoenix Suns: Tre Mann, G, Florida
Cameron Payne is an unrestricted free agent who will likely get a decent pay-day based off of this past season, meaning I don’t think the Suns bring him back. Insert Tre Mann, a PG with a decent ceiling who can backup and learn from Chris Paul (if Chris Paul stays).
30. Utah Jazz: Day’Ron Sharpe, C, North Carolina
I fully expect this pick to be traded, as the Jazz are said to not want to be in, or at least limit, their luxury tax bill. For that to happen, they will likely have to move this pick with one of Joe Ingles or Derrick Favors. If they are able to move Favors while keeping this pick, Day’Ron Sharpe fits a need as a backup center to Rudy Gobert. Sharpe has an NBA center body at 6’11-265 with good athleticism.
2021 NBA Draft Best Bets
Here is a recap of my best bets for the 2021 NBA Draft.
- Evan Mobley third overall on DraftKings Sportsbook (-225)
- Jalen Green to be drafted second (-360 at FanDuel Sportsbook)
- Scottie Barnes to go 5th overall at -195 on FanDuel Sportsbook.
- Cunningham, Green, Mobley, Suggs at -138 on FanDuel Sportsbook.
- James Bouknight UNDER 7.5 on BetMGM.
- Trey Murphy UNDER 18.5 (-125) at DraftKings Sportsbook.
- Isaiah Todd UNDER 37.5 (-110) at BetMGM
Follow all of my NBA Draft props in the FTNBets Bet Tracker.
