Prime-Time First TD Bets — Sunday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Each day, we are going to try and give you a quick preview of today’s main slate and any interesting betting angles that we spot. Take a peek and let us know what your thoughts are around our new daily piece!
Philadelphia Phillies at New York Yankees betting breakdown
Phillies (-126), Yankees (+108)
Total: 9.0 runs
Aaron Nola (R) vs. Domingo Germán (R)
Three things to know
- Aaron Nola returns after being a close contact of Alec Bohm (COVID-19). Will there be rust in tonight’s start?
- The Yankees are still finding their way offensively – they are in the middle of the pack with a .315 wOBA.
- The Phillies are in the same boat as New York – they rank 14th in team wOBA (.314) and are striking out at nearly an identical clip as the Yanks (24.6%).
Best bets: Domingo Germán has been off his game as of late. I lean toward a F3/F5/Moneyline bet here for the Phillies.
Miami Marlins at Washington Nationals betting breakdown
Marlins (-108), Nationals (-108)
Total: 9.0 runs
Trevor Rogers (L) vs. Paolo Espino (R)
Three things to know
- The Nationals offense is on absolute fire – while the pitching was roasted a bit this weekend by San Diego, the hitting was torrid and exploded again for 18 runs yesterday.
- Trevor Rogers will try and keep this offense in check – and he is nearing a wall. The southpaw is eight innings shy of a career-high.
- Paolo Espino has been rocked by righties (1.69 HR/9) – if Starling Marte and Jesús Aguilar are in the lineup, they make for an interesting prop bet.
Best bets: Combine Espino’s challenges and the Nationals offensive prowess, and I love the over.
Boston Red Sox at Toronto Blue Jays betting breakdown
Red Sox (+116), Blue Jays (-136)
Total: 11.5 runs
Garrett Richards (R) vs. Tom Hatch (R)
Three things to know
- Will this be a marquee matchup again? Probably. As the Jays wrap things up in Sahlen Field, it ranks fourth in park factor and eighth in home run factor this year.
- Can we really bet an over of 11.5 runs? Maybe, this thing smashed through it yesterday.
- In terms of wOBA, these are two top-seven offenses in the league.
Best bets: Runs runs runs for the over. I don’t trust either pitcher here, especially in a hitting-friendly environment and a young guy like Hatch on the mound.
NY Mets at Cincinnati Reds betting breakdown
Mets (+134), Reds (-158)
Total: 10.5 runs
Robert Stock (R) vs Wade Miley (L)
Three things to know
- Robert Stock is another high-risk, high-reward option – probably leaning towards the risk. He’s sporting identical 9.00 BB and K/9 marks (albeit in a small sample size).
- Can this Reds offense get back on track? Still solid, they find themselves outside of the top five and have fallen to ninth in wOBA (.323).
- Advanced metrics hate Wade Miley due to his lack of whiffs – he’s recorded a 53.0% ground-ball rate, which provides him a nice barrier.
Best bets: I like the over or even a same-game parlay paired with the Reds in this one. The Mets are falling apart.
Texas Rangers at Detroit Tigers betting breakdown
Rangers (+108), Tigers (-126)
Total: 9.0 runs
Dane Dunning (R) vs. Tarik Skubal (L)
Three things to know
- Two young arms will be featured here – both Dunning and Skubal have been excellent, with Skubal ranking as a top-10 SP in the last month.
- Dunning sports a 3.35 FIP, but the walks need help – he’s allowed 3.19 BB/9 this season.
- These offenses are in the bottom third of the league with a .304 wOBA (Detroit) and .299 wOBA (Texas, respectively).
Best bets: The under. Both hurlers have been underrated this season, and these offenses are not good.
Baltimore Orioles at Tampa Bay Rays betting breakdown
Orioles (+176), Rays (-210)
Total: 7.5 runs
John Means (L) vs. Shane McClanahan (L)
Three things to know
- Same issue here – how will Means fare off of the injured list (IL)? I am certainly concerned.
- To combat the Means fears, the Rays whiff nearly 30% of the time against southpaws.
- The Orioles have also struggled in this split, sporting a .303 wOBA and 24.0% strikeout rate.
Best bets: A same game parlay sticks out here. Yarbrough didn’t throw well, but I expect McClanahan to dominate.
San Diego Padres at Atlanta Braves betting breakdown
Padres (-164), Braves (+138)
Total: 8.5 runs
Yu Darvish (R) vs. Kyle Muller (L)
Three things to know
- I am always nervous starting a pitcher off the injured list – is Yu Darvish the exception tonight?
- These are two top-flight offenses, ranking in the top-10 in wOBA, but can Atlanta stay afloat without Ronald Acuna?
- Kyle Muller has been really good – he’s rocked a 2.98 FIP, whiffing 31.2% of hitters.
Best bets: Will Yu be fine after the IL stint? Probably staying away tonight, and maybe even hitting a few K props.
Minnesota Twins at Chicago White Sox betting breakdown
Twins (+130), White Sox (-154)
Total: 9.5 runs
Bailey Ober (R) vs. Dallas Keuchel (L)
Three things to know
- Bailey Ober possesses a bit of an odd profile – he has a strikeout rate north of 28%, but he’s getting hammered by walks and homers.
- Dallas Keuchel is the same old guy – low strikeout rate, with a ground-ball rate over 50%.
- Lefties are sneaky against Ober – they have nearly a .700 slugging percentage against him.
Best bets: The Sox all the way. Keuchel will keep them in this game, and Ober has struggled recently.
Cleveland Indians at Houston Astros betting breakdown
Indians (+154), Astros (-184)
Total: 9.0 runs
Triston McKenzie (R) vs Luis García (R)
Three things to know
- The Astros have given up their title of leading the league in wOBA, but ranking second (.335) ain’t so bad.
- Can Triston McKenzie repeat his last start? It was a gem, racking up seven scoreless innings and whiffing nine.
- Luis García has been outstanding, posting a 28.3% strikeout rate on the year.
Best bets: The under. The Astros may pound McKenzie, but Garcia has been brilliant.
Chicago Cubs at St. Louis Cardinals betting breakdown
Cubs (-104), Cardinals (-112)
Total: 9.0 runs
Trevor Williams (R) vs. Johan Oviedo (R)
Three things to know
- The Cardinals exploded offensively last night, but this team still ranks in the bottom three in wOBA.
- Can Johan Oviedo control the walks? His 12.3.% walk rate has gotten him into a lot of trouble.
- The Cubs are making for an interesting target – their 26.3% strikeout rate continues to climb.
Best bets: I don’t like the poor Cardinals offense and Oviedo isn’t good. Pound the Cubs.
Seattle Mariners at Colorado Rockies betting breakdown
Mariners (+156), Rockies (-186)
Total: 11.0 runs
Marco Gonzales (L) vs. Germán Márquez (R)
Three things to know
- Marco Gonzales has struggled this year – he’s allowed 2.38 HR/9 this season, and righties have pounded him.
- On the flip side, Germán Márquez has been a beast, recording a 3.37 ERA and 1.14 WHIP while throwing in Coors.
- Both teams rank in the bottom 10 in team wOBA, with the Mariners ranking second-worst.
Best bets: It will be terrifying, but I like the under or some home run props. Marquez has been really, really good this season, but don’t sleep on righty Rockies bats.
Pittsburgh Pirates at Arizona Diamondbacks betting breakdown
Pirates (-104), Diamondbacks (-112)
Total: 9.0 runs
Tyler Anderson (L) vs. Taylor Widener (R)
Three things to know
- By far, this is the ugliest game of the day, as these are two of the worst teams in baseball with a combined record 64-126.
- Does either pitcher excite you here? This is such a blah series – marginally, the Pirates hurler is better (Anderson) with a 4.35 ERA and 1.19 WHIP
- These offenses are both terrible, clocking in with an identical .298 team wOBA.
Best bets: Solely because Tyler Anderson is better than Taylor Widener, I am siding with the Pirates, but this is a stay away for me.
(Get all my MLB betting picks here)
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