NBA Postseason Best Bets (5/17)
Alex Christenson
Each day, we are going to try and give you a quick preview of today’s main slate and any interesting betting angles that we spot. Take a peek and let us know your thoughts.
Kansas City Royals at New York Yankees
Royals (+240), Yankees (-295)
Total: 7.5 runs
Brady Singer (R) vs. Gerrit Cole (R)
The Yankees are massive favorites against the Royals, and for good reason — the pitching seems to be a decided mismatch. Brady Singer, who has struggled this season in his sophomore campaign, takes the ball after leaving his last start early with a shoulder issue. Meanwhile, Gerrit Cole keeps churning along and is ready to attack the Royals offense, who should provide moderate resistance with their strikeout rate (second lowest in league).
Best bets: The Cole strikeout prop will be massive (I expect an opening line of 9.5), but a same-game parlay on the Yankees and a F5 could get lessen the juice.
Houston Astros at Baltimore Orioles
Astros (-196), Orioles (+164)
Total: 9.5 runs
Zack Greinke (R) vs. Jorge López (R)
The Astros covered the over for this game all by themselves Monday, and this is just a bad matchup for the Orioles. Tuesday, the Orioles roll out one of the five worst starting pitchers in terms of qualified starters, and that’s bad news for the O’s. Jorge López has been obliterated for 1.80 HR/9 this season.
Best bets: The OVER, and a plethora of home run props seem tasty.
Chicago White Sox at Pittsburgh Pirates
White Sox (-196), Pirates (+164)
Total: 7.5 runs
Lucas Giolito (R) vs. Tyler Anderson (L)
Twenty-three. That number has iconic significance in the city of Chicago, but it’s carrying some weight this season as well — the White Sox have been victorious in their last 23 games against a left-handed starting pitcher. Not too bad. And while Tyler Anderson has showcased significant improvement this season on his new team, he’s not Jacob deGrom.
Best bets: The White Sox moneyline, or a F5 bet. Until they lose to a lefty, I’m betting on them.
St. Louis Cardinals at Detroit Tigers
Cardinals (-118), Tigers (+100)
Total: 8.5 runs
Johan Oviedo (R) vs. Tarik Skubal (L)
It’s amazing that as people finally take a serious look at the Cardinals, they realize that this rotation is in utter and complete shambles with Jack Flaherty nursing an oblique injury. While Adam Wainwright is apparently going to pitch until he’s 50, but Carlos Martínez and John Gant have been brutal at the back end. Johan Oviedo has to step up at the back end and hopefully he can take a leap forward like Tarik Skubal has — if the young southpaw can control the walks (4.23 per nine).
Best bets: While Skubal has been really good, the Cardinals are solid against lefties. I am bettng with them.
Boston Red Sox at Tampa Bay Rays
Red Sox (-118), Rays (+100)
Total: 8.0 runs
Eduardo Rodríguez (L) vs. Andrew Kittredge (R)
I am a bit surprised that this game is nearly a pick ‘em. The Rays have been dreadful against lefties this year — they have struck out the second-most in baseball against lefties, and they are really struggling as of late. Over the last 14 days, the Rays rank 10th worst in team wOBA (.299) with a 26.2% strikeout rate.
Best bets: I like a Rodriguez whiff prop — the Rays still are not hitting lefties well.
Atlanta Braves at New York Mets
Braves (-116), Mets (-102)
Total: 7.0 runs
Charlie Morton (R) vs. Marcus Stroman (R)
Just imagine how tough this Mets team would be with a little more pitching — it’s clear we are witnessing absolute greatness with Jacob deGrom, but Marcus Stroman has stepped his game up as well. After two low-scoring games in a doubleheader Monday, the over/under of 7.0 runs is the lowest total on the board.
Best bets: Probably just a stay away — this game is a tough one as both hurlers have been firing on all cylinders.
Toronto Blue Jays at Miami Marlins
Blue Jays (+108), Marlins (-126)
Total: 7.5 runs
Ross Stripling (R) vs. Sandy Alcantara (R)
He may not have the same numbers of Pablo López, but Sandy Alcantara has been brilliant in his own right this season — over 93.1 innings pitched, his 3.35 FIP is one of the best marks in the league in 2021. He’s maintained a 16.6% strikeout-to-walk ratio and his 53.9% ground-ball rate is the best mark of his career.
Best bets: I would bet on the Marlins here. While the Blue Jays have been incredible offensively, their 105 wRC+ on the road shows they are good, not great, away from their home friendly confines.
Cleveland Indians at Chicago Cubs
Indians (+168), Cubs (-200)
Total: 9.0 runs
Eli Morgan (R) vs. Kyle Hendricks (R)
While Kyle Hendricks’ overall season-long numbers don’t look great, things seem to be turning around — since about five weeks ago, starting with a May 16 appearance, he has been pretty brilliant. Over his last 46 innings pitched (seven starts), he’s logged a brilliant 2.48 ERA. That should be tough sledding for the Indians here.
Best bets: I’m placing my bet on the Cubs — they’ve been skidding lately, but they should be able to turn things around.
Oakland Athletics at Texas Rangers
Athletics (-136), Rangers (+116)
Total: 9.5 runs
Cole Irvin (L) vs. Taylor Hearn (L)
This one seems like a horrific matchup for the Rangers — Taylor Hearn (4.84 ERA, 1.56 WHIP) has been only utilized as a reliever this season, and his numbers have been ugly. While he will only be likely working one inning, the Rangers bullpen has been equally bad — and they are forced into this issue because they decided to give Jordan Lyles an extra day of rest.
Best bets: Another brilliant same-game parlay on this one. Expect a big-time effort from the Athletics.
San Francisco Giants at Los Angeles Angels
Giants (+108), Angels (-126)
Total: 9.0 runs
Anthony DeSclafani (R) vs. Andrew Heaney (L)
Quick — name one of the five most underrated hurlers who switched teams this offseason? If your answer included Tony Disco as one of those selections, you win. This season, DeSclafani has logged a 3.51 FIP in 80.2 innings pitched, a hair better than Heaney, who has been nearly as brilliant. The southpaw has recorded a 28.7% strikeout rate this season, and his 1.29 HR/9 mark is in line with career averages.
Best bets: While this is two really good offenses, I like the UNDER here as these pitchers have been top notch.
Milwaukee Brewers at Arizona Diamondbacks
Brewers (-142), Diamondbacks (+120)
Total: 8.0 runs
Freddy Peralta (R) vs. Zac Gallen (R)
The streak is DEAD. Returning to the friendly confines of the desert, Arizona got back in the win column with a thrashing of Brett Anderson. Merrill Kelly was quietly solid, firing seven innings in the win. Can Zac Gallen repeat the performance? Well, he certainly gets to pitch to a Brewers offense that isn’t that talented — they sport a 26.1% strikeout rate and an ugly team wOBA mark of .294.
Best bets: I like the UNDER here. I expect Gallen to be solid, and with Peralta rocking a 30%-plus whiff rate, this could be a tough scene for run scoring.
Los Angeles Dodgers at San Diego Padres
Dodgers (-118), Padres (+100)
Total: 7.5 runs
Clayton Kershaw (L) vs. Blake Snell (L)
Blake Snell looks utterly lost — he has logged one solid start in the last month, and his numbers are truly atrocious. While we love to fall in with heavy strikeout totals, it’s hard ignoring his 13.2% walk rate and 1.47 HR/9 this season. After the Padres took game one, I don’t expect a repeat performance here.
Best bets: What I don’t understand is how the Dodgers aren’t heavy favorites yet. Snell stinks.
Colorado Rockies at Seattle Mariners
Rockies (+142), Mariners (-168)
Total: 8.5 runs
Kyle Freeland (L) vs. Chris Flexen (R)
There haven’t been a lot of great pitching performances that the Mariners have been able to showcase, but Chris Flexen has been dominant. Over the last month, the right-hander has logged a 2.67 ERA and 0.85 WHIP over the last 27 innings. That should be enough to limit a Rockies team that has struggled offensively in a big way this season.
Best bets: For the first time in a while, I am loving a Mariners F5 and/or moneyline bet.
(Get all my MLB betting picks here)
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