Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Each day, we are going to try and give you a quick preview of the day’s main slate and any interesting betting angles that we spot. Take a peek and let us know what your thoughts are around our new daily piece.
Toronto Blue Jays at New York Yankees
Blue Jays (+152), Yankees (-180)
Total: 9.0 runs
Steven Matz (L) vs. Corey Kluber (R)
The AL East is a veritable murderer’s row of bats. And Tuesday, with the Yankees heating up thanks to the healthy return of Luke Voit and what could be Giancarlo Stanton soon, there should be more runs. Kluber has been interesting — he’s showcased a plus change-up in this stage of his career.
Best bets: The over seems very tasty here. There a breeze blowing out to left projected at 10 MPH, and while it’s not as friendly of an environment like Dunedin, Fla., the recent struggles of Matz make it seem like runs are coming.
Cincinnati Reds at Washington Nationals
Reds (+172), Nationals (-205)
Total: 7.5 runs
Tyler Mahle (R) vs. Max Scherzer (R)
Remember when veteran right-hander Max Scherzer was old and washed up as we prepped for the 2021 season? That seems like a distant afterthought — over 56.1 IP, the righty has ripped off an absurd 76 whiffs and a 0.86 WHIP. Tyler Mahle is coming of getting absolutely torched last outing — seven earned runs over two innings pitched, and he ruined your rotisserie fantasy teams.
Best bets: The safety net here of a F5 bet for Washington or a moneyline bet (perhaps paired in another parlay) seems obvious.
Kansas City Royals at Tampa Bay Rays
Royals (+158), Rays (-188)
Total: 8.5 runs
Brad Keller (R) vs. Rich Hill (L)
Brad Keller was a fantasy darling prior to the season, and boy has he struggled in 2021. After showcasing a delicious slider late last year, he’s all but abandoned the pitch in a perplexing change of tune — he’s logged a 6.52 ERA and 1.87 WHIP this season. And the Rays? They have reached heavy favorite status in this game thanks to ripping off a ridiculous win streak recently.
Best bets: As long as Rich Hill is healthy, he’s been really good, and surprisingly, he’s logged six innings or more in each of the last three outings. I love a F5 bet for the Rays.
Colorado Rockies at New York Mets
Rockies (+225), Mets (-275)
Total: 6.5 runs
Kyle Freeland (L) vs. Jacob deGrom (R)
Allegedly not on a pitch count, betting against a nasty Jacob deGrom outing seems like a fool’s errand. In a rehab start, albeit at Single-A no less, deGrom retired all nine hitters he faced, whiffing eight. As some Cardinals Single-A players noted “it’s like facing a guy in a video game.”
Best bets: Man, taking the under here (6.5 runs) is a scary bet, but it probably makes sense here. DeGrom has been amazing, and the Mets cannot hit. With far lesser pitching options Monday night, these teams combined for only five runs.
Cleveland Indians at Detroit Tigers
Indians (-142), Tigers (+120)
Total: 9.0 runs
Aaron Civale (R) vs. Tarik Skubal (L)
Game one was tight, and Emmanuel Clase nearly blew a win for the Indians. Now, the Indians seem to have the decided edge in the starting pitcher matchup, with Aaron Civale taking the Zach Plesac-type leap in the rotation this season. He’s logged a 3.30 ERA and 47 strikeouts in 60 innings pitched. Tarik Skubal, the young lefty, did earn his first win of the year, but this should be a far tougher matchup this time.
Best bets: Monday’s game featured a surprising number of runs, and this game feels in a similar boat. Take an over bet on Civale and strikeouts if you are lucky to see anything at 6.5 or less.
Atlanta Braves at Boston Red Sox
Braves (-112), Red Sox (-104)
Total: 10.0 runs
Charlie Morton (R) vs. Garrett Richards (R)
If you are looking at the opposite of a pitcher’s duel, head to Boston or flip on the MLB Network and get ready for some offense. Both Atlanta (.327) and Boston (.334) are working towards earning the moniker of the league’s best offensive squad. The Braves probably doesn’t come as much of a surprise, but the Red Sox are simply returning to form from a season ago.
Best bets: I truly like the over here, despite a hefty total. Charlie Morton has stunk as an off-season signee for the Braves. He’s logged a 4.60 ERA in 45 innings pitched and could be in for a long night.
San Diego Padres at Milwaukee Brewers
Padres (+118), Brewers (-138)
Total: 6.5 runs
Joe Musgrove (R) vs. Corbin Burnes (R)
Two of what we presumed to be the league’s best teams, prior to the season beginning, face off in Milwaukee. The Brewers recalled Keston Hiura and immediately placed him in the middle of their lineup, desperately searching for any shot in the arm offensively. Meanwhile, San Diego is struggling a little bit of an identity crisis — Trent Gresham, who started the season on the IL, has now returned to it two more times this year. Fernando Tatis Jr. continues to be a gem, but the parts around him are dealing with some major injury issues.
Best bets: Like the Rockies-Mets, the under seems tempting, but that number is low. If it trickles up to 7.0 or even 7.5 runs, pound it.
Baltimore Orioles at Minnesota Twins
Orioles (+184), Twins (-220)
Total: 9.5 runs
Dean Kremer (L) vs. José Berríos (R)
Let’s try this again — if we say enough, can we will it to happen? Let. There. Be. Runs. Two offenses that can get loose in a hurry travel north to Minneapolis. It’s been a bit of a rough go for Dean Kremer — the lefty has recorded a 6.35 ERA and 1.59 in 34 IP, but the Orioles continue to roll him out there. Keep a watchful eye on Nelson Cruz — he sat out Monday but could return here.
Best bets: Twins F5 (DraftKings, +138). Kremer has struggled too much for the Twins not to smack him around. I am not sure they have enough offense to carry this total game to an over, but some individual run props for the Twins are also interesting.
St. Louis Cardinals at Chicago White Sox
Cardinals (+122), White Sox (-144)
Total: 7.5 runs
Jack Flaherty (R) vs. Lucas Giolito (R)
The Cardinals flat out do not hit right-handed pitching. They are now at a team mark of a .294 wOBA and a 23.7% strikeout rate. Lance Lynn did not whiff a ton of hitters Monday (three), but he was brilliant over seven innings. Lucas Giolito has a 29.7% strikeout rate on the season and a 14.7% swinging-strikeout rate, so the struggles for the Birds may continue here.
Best bets: I like the under here in a big way — the Cardinals struggle in this split and Giolito, due to the Patriot’s Day game, has overall numbers that are inflated.
Los Angeles Dodgers at Houston Astros
Dodgers (-124), Astros (+106)
Total: 8.5 runs
Clayton Kershaw (L) vs. Zack Greinke (R)
This is going to be a fun one and a remix of previous interesting World Series matchups. The Dodgers are going to do what they do — mix and match their lineup accordingly with who is on the mound. Matt Beaty, Max Muncy, and a slew of left-handed batters are likely to be in the lineup. Gavin Lux is also starting to heat up, and he slugged a grand slam over the weekend. Quietly, the Astros are maligned for their .157 ISO, but their .331 wOBA and under 20% strikeout rate show their strong lineup.
Best bets: Sneaky over bet here — the Astros will push Kershaw, and if Mookie Betts is back, they Dodgers will give Greinke some issues. If it slides down at all, POUND.
Texas Rangers at Los Angeles Angels
Rangers (+130), Angels (-154)
Total: 8.5 runs
Hyeon-Jong Yang (L) vs. Andrew Heaney (L)
Now that the Angels have moved away from Albert Pujols, this lineup filled with youngsters truly has an ability to shine — if only Mike Trout hadn’t strained that calf, we could really see what this engine could rev up and do. Hyeon-Jong Yang has been very lucky — a quick peek showcases a 3.30 ERA, but in reality, a silly .220 BABIP and 81.7% strand rate shows some luck is involved.
Best bets: I really love the Angels here — a same-game parlay over at FanDuel could be very fun, including an Shohei Ohtani prop, an Angels F5 bet, and a Heaney strikeout total.
Seattle Mariners at Oakland Athletics
Mariners (+150), Athletics (-178)
Total: 7.5 runs
Logan Gilbert (R) vs. Cole Irvin (L)
All I am going to say is that Jarred Kelenic is one bad man. That home run he hit Monday night off Frankie Montas — has that thing landed yet? Nonetheless, for the team that whiffs the fifth-most in baseball, it was nice to see the Mariners score some runs, especially as they have struggled as of late with a .282 wOBA mark. Now, Cole Irvin has been really good as a rookie — in 52.2 IP, he has rocked his way to a solid 3.84 FIP.
Best bets: The F5 on the Athletics and a moneyline bet seem obvious. Logan Gilbert has really struggled — in his last start, he needed 74 pitches to record just eight outs. I think the Athletics win handily.
San Francisco Giants at Arizona Diamondbacks
Giants (-166), Diamondbacks (+140)
Total: 9.0 runs
Kevin Gausman (R) vs. Corbin Martin (R)
On paper, this is arguably one of the biggest pitching mismatches of the day. Kevin Gausman seems to have resurrected his career, and Corbin Martin is just getting his footing as an MLB pitcher. Assuming the Giant lefties are back and healthy, Brandon Crawford and Brandon Belt should be ready to eat.
Best bets: Similar to the game above, a F5 bet on the Giants and a moneyline bet seems obvious.
(Get all my MLB betting picks here)
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