The Double Dip: Fantasy baseball 2-start pitchers for the week

The Double Dip is a new column over at FTN for fantasy baseball — and it’s meant to highlight pitchers that are making two starts in a week. Some of the plays may be obvious — you don’t need me telling you that when Jacob deGrom is starting twice, it’s a good idea to start him. You just do it.

But volume is key, especially two-start pitcher volume. This column aims to identify all the two-start hurlers — the ones that are no-brainers, the ones that are avoids, and most importantly, the tough-to-call decisions.

Each week, I’ll do my best to highlight some of those tricky arms, and what could come your way.

All scheduled two-start pitchers

Luke Weaver, AZ (at COL, vs. CIN)
Drew Smyly, ATL (at WAS, vs. PHI)
Jorge López, BAL (at NYY, vs. BOS)
Nick Pivetta, BOS (vs. TB, at BAL)
Trevor Williams, CHC (vs. MIL, at PIT)
José De León, CIN (vs. PIT, at AZ)
Logan Allen, CLE (vs. KC, vs. DET)
Germán Márquez, COL (vs. AZ, at SF)
José Ureña, DET (vs. MIN, at CLE)
Danny Duffy, KC (at CLE, at CWS)
Dustin May, LAD (at OAK, vs. WAS)
Trevor Rogers, MIA (vs. STL, at NYM)
Sandy Alcantara, MIA (vs. STL, at NYM)
Brett Anderson, MIL (at CHC, vs. STL)
Matt Shoemaker, MIN (at DET, vs. SEA)
Jacob deGrom, NYM (at PHI, vs. MIA)
Marcus Stroman, NYM (at PHI, vs. MIA)
Jordan Montgomery, NYY (vs. BAL, at TB)
Frankie Montas, OAK (vs. LAD, at HOU)
Matt Moore, PHI (vs. NYM, at ATL)
JT Brubaker, PIT (at CIN, vs. CHC)
Adrian Morejon, SD (vs. SF, at TEX)
Anthony DeSclafani, SF (at SD, vs. COL)
Daniel Ponce de Leon (STL) — at MIA, vs. MIL
Michael Wacha, TB (at BOS, vs. NYY)
Mike Foltynewicz, TEX (vs. TOR, vs. SD)
Tanner Roark, TOR (at TEX, vs. LAA)
Steven Matz, TOR (at TEX, vs. LAA)
Max Scherzer, WAS (vs. ATL, at LAD)

The no-brainers

This group should definitely be in your starting lineup — whether it’s due to matchup or just sheer brilliance, don’t overthink this one.

Dustin May, LAD (at OAK, vs. WAS)
Sandy Alcantara, MIA (vs. STL, at NYM)
Jacob deGrom, NYM (at PHI, vs. MIA)
Marcus Stroman, NYM (at PHI, vs. MIA)
Max Scherzer, WAS (vs. ATL, at LAD)

The run-and-hides

This group should only be started out of pure desperation — the volume is nice, and it definitely could end up working out for you, but starting these hurlers is a real gamble.

Luke Weaver, AZ (at COL, vs. CIN) — Ugly matchups and Weaver hasn’t looked great.
Jorge López, BAL (at NYY, vs. BOS) — See Weaver.
José Ureña, DET (vs. MIN, at CLE) — I would much rather see Matt Manning have this role, and these matchups aren’t great.
Danny Duffy, KC (at CLE, at CWS) — This is more matchup dependent. I don’t like either for Duffy.
Brett Anderson, MIL (at CHC, vs. STL) — You could make an argument that Anderson’s poor strikeout rate (15.8% in ‘20, 12.1% in ‘19) can be mitigated with two starts. I think there’s a real chance he gets pulled early with that monster Milwaukee bullpen.
Matt Moore, PHI (vs. NYM, at ATL) — The two best offenses in the division. Pass.
JT Brubaker, PIT (at CIN, vs. CHC) — I actually like Brubaker in deeper formats, but playing in that tiny band box of the home of Skyline Chili is a no for me.
Anthony DeSclafani, SF (at SD, vs. COL) — It’s hard re-programming my brain that the Padres are a good offense, but they are. Stay away.
Mike Foltynewicz, TEX (vs. TOR, vs. SD) — I think Folty’s exact words were he “beefed up” in ‘21 to get the return on his velocity. Two home starts isn’t anything to sniff at, but it’s also against two of the league’s best offense.
Tanner Roark, TOR (at TEX, vs. LAA) — The Jays are desperate for innings, but I don’t see this working out well. Roark was bombed in spring training (8.44 ERA) after stinking in ‘20.

The meat and potatoes

This group is one that takes a bit more thinking — the volume is nice, but the matchup could be tricky. Is it worth taking the risk on a questionable start for what could be some juicy fantasy goodness? Let’s dig and find out.

And since they say imitation is the sincerest form of flattery, I am going to use a similar rating scale that Clay Link and Todd Zola do over at Rotowire — if I was playing in five fantasy baseball leagues, how many would I feel comfortable starting this hurler? Using that as our barometer, we should be able to appropriately deem the risk and reward that’s available if you so choose to start this arm. Keep in mind — your league and team context is always key. I’m using a 12-team NFBC Online Championship format as my primary backdrop.

Drew Smyly, ATL (at WAS, vs. PHI) — FOUR LEAGUES OUT OF FIVE. Smyly is a darling of the fantasy community after an abbreviated 2020 season that saw all kinds of amazing. A major bump in velocity led to 42 strikeouts in 26.1 innings for Smyly a season ago. Both of these NL East lineups are tricky, but this seems like a solid bet.
Nick Pivetta, BOS (vs. TB, at BAL) — THREE. Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me. Fool me three times — I’m just an idiot? Every fantasy baseball owner seems to have been a Pivetta owner at some point, and the lack of quality options that the Red Sox possess has led to a spot in the rotation for Pivetta. Opening Day did not showcase either team as offensive juggernauts, so tread carefully here.
Trevor Williams, CHC (vs. MIL, at PIT) — THREE. Again, like Pivetta, volume likely wins out here. Williams sparkled in spring training, which is a far cry from last year’s ugly 6.53 ERA. The matchups here seem to be in a decent spot as well — neither of these teams seem to be wild.
José De León, CIN (vs. PIT, at AZ) — TWO AND A HALF. I know, what a wanker, right? (Shout out to Ted Lasso — go watch it if you haven’t done so). Who gives a half score? The one-time mega prospect, who has failed due to poor control, may be on his last leg. He whiffed seven White Sox in his final spring training outing, and he could merely be keeping a seat warm for Tejay Antone.
Logan Allen, CLE (vs. KC, vs. DET) — FIVE. Allen may be my favorite arm in this group. Make no bones about it, Allen is not a fantasy ace. But these offenses are not good, either. The southpaw was outstanding in spring training and closed with five scoreless innings and seven strikeouts. Roster him confidently.
Germán Márquez, COL (vs. AZ, at SF) — FOUR. There’s no denying the talent level of Marquez. He generates a pile of swings and misses, but that damn 5.11 home ERA is terrifying. The good news is that Coors Field is pretty chilly, and Marquez looked mediocre at best in an Opening Day start over the Dodgers, walking six batters in four innings. That could have been because he was facing what should be the league’s best offense, though.
Trevor Rogers, MIA (vs. STL, at NYM) — FOUR. I am not sure exactly what’s in the water in Miami, but man there’s a depth of talent here unmatched in nearly any organization. I guess that’s why they felt they could ship off Zac Gallen to the Diamondbacks. Rogers has dazzled hitters all of spring training — the Mets were one of the league’s best attacks a season ago, but the juice feels worth the squeeze.
Matt Shoemaker, MIN (at DET, vs. SEA) — TWO. When Shoemaker is healthy, he’s a darn good fantasy asset. While innings pitched certainly are no barometer in 2020, Shoemaker logged identical 28.2 innings pitched seasons in both 2019 and 2020. That comes on the heels of a combined a 108 ? innings pitched in his last two seasons as an Angel. For me, the matchups are great, and assuming Shoemaker does make both starts, he has sneaky fantasy appeal. Don’t ignore the juicy ground ball rate (48.1% last year) with an improved infield defense thanks to the signing of Andrelton Simmons.
Jordan Montgomery, NYY (vs. BAL, at TB) — FOUR. I’m of the belief that starters are at their true fantasy and real-life best not in the season they return from Tommy John, but in the season following. Case in point: my wife tore her ACL in college, and she was a two-sport star. She said in that case, the first season was fine, but her explosiveness wasn’t really back until the year following. For me, pitching is the same way — obviously, a bit of a different exercise, but you get the drift, and Montgomery is in the second season returning from that major injury. Montgomery as just okay last year (5.11 ERA and 1.30 WHIP in 44 innings), but I have him as a major breakout candidate in 2021.
Frankie Montas, OAK (vs. LAD, at HOU) — TWO. Montas tore his cuticle, causing him to leave his spring training start early, and that just sounds nasty. While the team is optimistic he can bounce back quickly, and Montas has some legit top-of-the-rotation stuff, facing that juggernaut Dodgers lineup and a motivated Houston team is a bit scary. I’ll pass here.
Adrian Morejon, SD (vs. SF, at TEX) — FIVE. Morejon could dethrone Allen as the top starter in this mercurial group. Assuming the two-start schedule holds, we saw how the ball played in Texas’s new stadium (read: not well), and the Giants don’t seem particularly frightening here, either. In his final spring tune-up, Morejon struck out six Giants over 3.1 innings and sat in the mid-90s with the heater.
Daniel Ponce de Leon, STL (at MIA, vs. MIL) — THREE. While he may also be holding a tenuous position on a roster spot with injuries to starters Kwang Hyun-Kim and Miles Mikolas, the talent is not typically the issue with Ponce de Leon. The inflated walk rate has been a major concern, and that’s the thing to watch here. If you have better options, I can understand not rostering him, but neither one of these offenses is particularly scary.
Michael Wacha, TB (at BOS, vs. NYY) — TWO. My anti-Cardinals bias immediately tells me to be terrified of Wacha, and perhaps it’s not necessarily just Cardinals bias. Wacha stunk a season ago, and while he did whiff more than a batter per inning, he also recorded a 6.62 ERA and 1.56 WHIP. The matchups are not great, but at least he gets the Bronx Bombers in Florida, not in Yankee Stadium. I’m likely passing on the volume until I see more from Wacha.
Steven Matz, TOR (at TEX, vs. LAA) — THREE. The baby Blue Jays desperately need some hurlers to step up, especially with shaky number two starter Robbie Ray out to begin the year. Chalk 2020 up as a season to forget for Matz, and perhaps he’s turned the corner in his new Toronto digs. Say what you want about spring training statistics, but Matz turned in a 1.76 ERA. There’s definitely risk here, especially in that Angels start.