Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
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Stat Hero MLB picks for today
Here is a look at my favorite plays on StatHero for Wednesday’s slate. Follow me on Twitter to see my exact lineup.
StatHero MVPs
Your team MVP scores 1.5x the amount of fantasy points and you lose points for strikeouts so pick someone you feel is safe, ideally with a low chance of striking out.
José Abreu, Chicago White Sox
A tough season for Abreu’s standards might be turning around, as he is currently riding an eight-game hitting streak with four home runs. Bailey Ober has already pitched three times against the White Sox this season. In those three starts he has allowed 12 earned runs, including six home runs, in 14 innings pitched. Abreu has three hits in seven at-bats against Ober with a double, triple and a home run. Ober is allowing a very high .274 ISO and 44% fly ball rate to right-handed hitters, which explains the home runs. $10,800 feels like a great price for Abreu.
Joey Votto, Cincinnati Reds
Votto is one of the hottest hitters in all of baseball over his last 20 games, collecting a hit in 17, including a stretch where he homered in seven consecutive games. Touki Toussaint has looked much better this season, limiting his walks much more (6.5%), but it’s been just four games, and he only has eight innings’ worth of plate appearances against left-handed hitters. I care about this since he has struggled mightily with lefties throughout his career with a .372 wOBA and .205 ISO. I believe Toussaint has gotten a bit lucky this season against left-handed hitters with 83.3% of base runners stranded and a 5.10 xFIP.
StatHero flex picks
Eduardo Escobar, Milwaukee Brewers
Escobar has been a great addition to the Brewers going 13-41 (.317) with five multi-hit games. Jake Arrieta really struggles with left-handed hitters, especially since 2019 with a .384 wOBA, .220 ISO and 38.1% hard contact rate. Escobar’s 44.4% fly ball rate against right-handed pitching should counter Arrieta’s sinker and ground ball tendencies. The Cubs just used eight relievers Tuesday because of their doubleheader. Since trading away their three best relievers at the deadline, their bullpen has allowed the highest hard contact rate and HR/FB rate and fourth highest batting average in baseball.
Yordan Alvarez, Houston Astros
For most pitchers, it would be nothing noteworthy for them to pitch better at home than on the road but that sticks out for Antonio Senzatela since his home ballpark is Coors Field. He has fared better at home than on the road this season. Against left-handed hitters away from Coors Field in his career, he is allowing a .374 wOBA and .176 ISO. Alvarez crushes right-handed pitching and matches up very well with Senzatela’s two main pitches (four-seam fastball and slider). On top of that, the Rockies bullpen is one of the worst in baseball and not just at home. They have allowed the third-highest WHIP, fourth-highest wOBA and hard contact rate, and fifth-highest ERA on the road this season.
Trey Mancini, Baltimore Orioles
It’s been a tough start this month for Mancini, hitting just .138, but I like his matchup against Tarik Skubal, who has been very inconsistent this season. One of the most consistent things Skubal has done is give up long balls. He has allowed a home run in 14 of his 22 games and given up a total of 25 home runs which is good for the fourth most in baseball this season. Against right-handed hitters in his career, he is allowing a .349 wOBA, .270 ISO and 38.5% hard contact rate. Mancini is easy to fit into your lineups at just $9,200.
Tyler O’Neill, St. Louis Cardinals
O’Neill was scratched from Tuesday’s lineup for dealing with side effects of the COVID-19 vaccine, so if you roster him, you’d be safer buying the StatHero insurance. He is one of the more expensive players on the slate at $11,100 but he is my favorite player to attack Wil Crowe with. He matches up the best with Crowe, hitting four of his five main pitches with at least a 115 wRC+ this season. Among pitchers with at least 70 innings pitched this season, Crowe’s 1.53 WHIP is tied for the 11th highest. In his short career, Crowe has been a reverse-splits pitcher allowing a .419 wOBA and .287 ISO to right-handed hitters.
Austin Meadows, Tampa Bay Rays
Nathan Eovaldi has been absolutely shelled in his last two starts, including one against the Rays, for 12 earned runs in 10 innings pitched. Meadows has fared well in their previous meetings, going 6-15 with two doubles, a triple and a home run. Since 2019, Eovaldi is allowing a .198 ISO and 41% fly ball rate to left-handed hitters. In that same time frame, Meadows is crushing right-handed pitching with a .380 wOBA, .282 ISO, 40.9% hard contact rate. $9,400 feels too cheap for the Rays slugger.
Jean Segura, Philadelphia Phillies
David Price is back in the rotation and gave up two home runs in his last start to an Angels lineup without Mike Trout, Shohei Ohtani, Anthony Rendon and Jared Walsh. That’s pretty insane considering how talented those guys are compared to the rest of that team. The Phillies on the other hand have been on fire and have a great offense. Since 2019 Price is allowing a .194 ISO and 36.9% hard contact rate to right-handed hitters. In that same time frame, Segura has a .370 wOBA and .231 ISO against left-handed pitching. Also of note, Segura matches up very well, hitting each of Price’s pitches with at least a 121 wRC+ this season.
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StatHero sleepers/values
Miguel Rojas, Miami Marlins
The longtime lefty killer is hot right now with hits in 11 of his last 12 games including five multi-hit games. Since 2019 he has been great against left-handed pitching with a .387 wOBA, 146 wRC+ and 37.4% hard contact rate. Ryan Weathers has been absolutely lit up in his last two starts, allowing 14 earned runs in just seven innings pitched. Right-handed hitters have fared well against Weathers with a .345 wOBA, .205 ISO and 41.9% hard contact rate.
Note: salaries change throughout the day as news and lineups come out.
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