Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Get into the groove as I take you on a stadium tour across the fantasy baseball realm! It is my hope that you will find this article both entertaining and informative. Don’t forget about our stellar season-long fantasy baseball coverage at FTN Fantasy. Save a couple bones with my promo code MJGOVIER when you sign up so you can get access to outstanding pieces like Eric Cross’ Crossed Up. Eric is as humble and knowledgeable as any person in existence. What are you waiting for?!
It is my ultimate goal for you to absorb and apply winning fantasy baseball wisdom from each edition of Groovin’ with Govier. It’s similar to when Neo was offered the blue or the red pill. If you continue reading this, you take the plunge to find out how far my fantasy baseball analysis can take you. That means every Wednesday, you and I become partners as we litigate our way through each case in fantasy baseball toward the ultimate prize … a league championship! With that in mind, similar to when I inevitably forget to set my lineup for the annual Patriot’s Day Red Sawks game at 11 a.m. on the third Monday in April, let’s once again scour the fantasy baseball landscape with an enthusiasm unknown to mankind!
For those of us who streamed Kyle Freeland Monday night:
Don’t Try to Play Me Out
Fantasy baseball success has a great deal to do with timing. Fantasy managers are all doing their damndest to not get played by their own poor decisions or other fantasy managers. Scroll the “Daily Anything Goes Thread” in the fantasy baseball subreddit. There is an endless stream of “Who would you give up for Manny Machado?” or “Is it too soon to stash Brandon Pfaadt?” Everybody is out there trying to gain an edge by selling, dumping or trading a player. More specifically, the timing of these moves is what matters most more so than the actual move itself. Getting caught flat footed with a notoriously streaky player like Brad Miller after he’s gone cold is what most fantasy managers are trying to avoid. There is no science to these dalliances though. Baseball data has become so specific, that the Cardinals can tell when Tyler O’Neill is not hustling when he rounds third base for home. With as much data as there is today, there are still not enough data points available to master the timing of player movement. Having expressed that clearly, here are some players off to slow starts and what I think should be done with them:
Michael Massey, 2B, Kansas City Royals
Dude is ice cold right now. Michael Massey didn’t start the last two games even though he is a left-handed hitter and the starting pitchers were both righties. He has 0 walks compared to 18 K’s! That pretty much says it all. Massey doesn’t have much power to offer either. This one is an easy call. Do not buy low either. He is likely on his way back down to Omaha where he will inevitably get back on track.
Verdict: Hit the drop button.
Trey Mancini, 1B/OF, Chicago Cubs
I mentioned Matt Mervis above. Trey Mancini’s struggle is only going to stoke the Mervis fires that burn hot deep in the hearts of Wrigley. Mancini uncharacteristically has 1 BB paired with 18 K’s. He was never an on-base machine, but he has a career 7.7% BB rate with a .328 OBP. Plus he survived cancer, so I already feel bad writing about his struggles. Mancini is playing regularly. He went 0-5 Monday while the rest of the Cubs torched the A’s. This one is tricky. Eric Hosmer isn’t playing well either. One of these vets will lose out eventually. I bet it’s Hosmer, not Mancini.
Verdict: Hold steady
Triston Casas, 1B, Boston Red Sox
This powerhouse of a human is 7-48 to start 2023 with a 30% K rate, 30% HHR and 2 barrels in 33 BBE. Triston Casas plays every day for Boston with little sign that he will be limited since he’s such a highly regarded prospect — even on nights like Tuesday when he donned the dreaded golden sombrero. His lack of contact does concern me though. With options like Harold Ramírez (multi-hit output in four of his last five games) on the waiver wire in many leagues, Casas can be replaced without FOMO.
Verdict: Sell now if someone is willing
Ezequiel Tovar, SS, Colorado Rockies
The Rockies gave Ezequiel Tovar the unlimited pass to Coors Field as their starting SS. Being a rookie means growing pains are standard issue. I was never all that impressed with Tovar in the minors to be motivated enough to draft him. He is a rookie, which means it’s time to cue the “obviously patience is needed because he’s a rookie” siren. Still, I would be looking for other players to plug into my SS spot depending on league size. I would take the newly promoted Zach Neto over Tovar.
Verdict: Get out while you can
Blake Sabol, C/OF, San Francisco Giants
Another player with too many K’s and too few walks. Blake Sabol has C/OF eligibility, which increases his appeal mostly in two-catcher leagues, which are not common among most fantasy players. Sabol’s positional eligibility doesn’t seem to be helping his 38.5% K rate early on. The Giants have injuries piling up in the OF as Joc Pederson and Bryce Johnson have hit the IL. Plus Michael Conforto (who is hoping to come back against his former team Thursday) has a calf issue that is getting to the point where San Francisco has to either poo or get off the pot. There is playing time for Sabol, but one walk in 39 PA isn’t the patient profile he was known for in the minors.
Verdict: Long leash acceptable
Oscar Gonzalez, OF, Cleveland Guardians
As I was writing this piece, Oscar Gonzalez cranked a dong out of Comerica Park on a gloomy afternoon here in Detroit. He only connected on 2 barrels on 31 BBE before Tuesday. Nothing like Tigers pitching to cure that aching bat. His power is the real thing. He just didn’t do it yet over the first three weeks. Gonzalez is also whiffing at a slightly lower clip than in 2022, which was already sub-20%. The major concern here is a platoon situation with Will Brennan who is making consistent contact so far without any power.
Verdict: Leave this mess for somebody else
Chris Sale, SP, Boston Red Sox
I was writing about Chris Sale here before his start Tuesday. Now that he proved me right for sticking with him with his outstanding 11-K performance against Minnesota, he can be removed from this list of struggling players.
Verdict: Gimme gimme gimme
Alek Manoah, SP, Toronto Blue Jays
This dude has been dominating the subreddit, Discords and Twitter after getting shelled by the Rays last Sunday. Alek Manoah has one outing this season where he looked solid against the Royals, but even in that one he walked 4. It’s all about the lack of command and BB with Manoah. Full credit to this dude who talked about the pitch clock having an impact on Manoah. That could be the reason for his increased lack of command. What worries me with this argument is why his stuff isn’t missing more bats? If it’s easier for hitters to lay off his stuff, it likely has to do with something beyond Manoah rushing because of the pitch clock.
Verdict: Buy low but be careful who you give up
Member Berries
Member all the chatter started by someone about the lack of depth at the third base position for 2023? Well that turned out to be a load of poppycock! Maybe it was Russian bots having fun on the now defunct social media app once known as Twitter? Or maybe it was someone in the CIA spy network recently outed in the Discord intelligence leaks? I suppose it doesn’t matter who it was. The point is, they were wrong! Patrick Wisdom’s two-dong night Monday in Oakland was another example of afterthoughts at 3B in the preseason now being used as capable starters even in 12-team leagues. The insidious nature of groupthink ADP once again shows the inconsistent platform of its foundation.
Using the baseline of March 1 ADP from NFBC, I took a look at all the third basemen available at pick 150 or later. Jordan Walker was the 10th 3B off the board at an ADP of 122. From there I gazed at my man crush who I unfortunately didn’t get enough shares of — none other than Toronto’s Matt Chapman at an ADP of 152. Chapman crushed the ball last year at a 50% HHR and is resuming his ball crushing ways. Alec Bohm at an ADP of 167 has shown early on that he is ready to help carry the offensive load without Bryce Harper and Rhys Hoskins in the mix in Philly. Bohm’s HHR rate of 48% along with his reduced K rate of 14% are welcome signs of a possible breakout in 2023. Josh Rojas at 215 and Brendan Donovan at 244 ADP have both been leading off for their respective clubs while providing steals and on base ability that makes them viable CI placeholders for most fantasy teams.
Let’s get more radical than that. I skipped down to an ADP of 487 to find Reds’ youngster Spencer Steer. Steer has been hitting in the 2-hole, which shows tremendous confidence in his abilities. I love Steer even more for OBP and points leagues, but he’ll do just fine everywhere. Newly acquired Brewer Brian Anderson was floundering in the depths at an ADP of 527. Not even I would have called Anderson’s 2023 start, but he is no doubt worthy of a roster spot in 12-teamers. Will it last? That’s another matter for another article.
Finally, at an ADP of 562, lies the man who has already clobbered 8 dongs in three weeks’ time: Patrick Wisdom! Every draft I was in this spring I found myself taking Wisdom. I have a hefty dose of Wisdom shares across my 21 leagues. Finding 30-homer power at 400 or later (who also happens to be a third baseman) made Wisdom very difficult for me to pass on. Wisdom was born out of the post-pandemic bozo season ooze as a late-blooming rookie who hit 28 homers in 375 PA, but at the cost of a 40.8% K rate. He still managed a 117 wRC+ that year! Last season he cranked 25 dongs while lowering his K rate to 34% while also dealing with lingering injuries. Now Wisdom is off with a bang for 2023. His pace definitely cannot be sustained. And the cruelty of baseball will no doubt bring along an impending slump in the near future. But Wisdom has clearly shown he can crank homers. He is one of David Ross’ guys. I do not think Wisdom is in danger of losing his spot either. Matt Mervis has been playing 1B only in the minors this year. Don’t get cute.
State of the Union
A brief note on the rise in stolen base totals so far this year. There are certain individuals like Nico Hoerner, who has 9 steals in 10 tries, who are running free on the base paths. Right behind Hoerner with 8 steals each are the speedy Baltimore combo of Cedric Mullins and Jorge Mateo. Bases are being stolen at an 82% clip around MLB, but that doesn’t mean everybody is getting in on this new fad for 2023. Coming into Tuesday, there are 10 teams in MLB with as many steals or fewer than Nico Hoerner’s 9 swipes. Specifically the bottom four teams in MLB for pilfered bags so far this year (Rangers, Rockies, Dodgers, Twins) combine to match Hoerner’s total of 9. In fact, the team with the most steals as of Tuesday (Cleveland) has 25 steals while the last-place team (Minnesota) has 1 steal in 3 tries. The Twins ranking dead last in steals shouldn’t be news to anybody, as they ranked dead last during 2022 with 38. Byron Buxton went 6-for-6 last year to lead the team. Steals may be up this year, but the disparity between the teams who run and the teams who don’t still remains. Other factors like new managerial regimes require fantasy managers to investigate how much the new manager’s philosophy will differ from 2022. The Rangers as a team ran as much as anybody the last few seasons under Chris Woodward. Five players alone last year combined to swipe 91 bags. With old-timer Bruce Bochy in charge for 2023, that agenda has been modified to a more stolen base-averse approach. Just because there is a high success rate of stolen bases across The Show doesn’t mean that rate will apply universally to all 30 teams.
Screenshots
Robbie Ray, SP, Seattle Mariners
Monday, Robbie Ray was supposed to get the word about whether he could start resuming his comeback. The word that came back was disappointing. Ray is going to have another MRI this week. No throwing program. No joy in Mudville. I had high hopes for Ray this season. Now I am starting to feel the best case for Ray will be similar to that of Jesús Luzardo in 2022. Luzardo missed 83 days between starts last year from May 10 until Aug. 1. It was a big hit for Luzardo’s value last season, but at least he didn’t get the news Jeffrey Springs got Tuesday. Ray can be dropped in 10-teamers, but I am hesitant to advise dumping him in 12-teamers. I definitely am holding him in 14-teamers and deeper, but I am doing it with a look on my face that makes it seem like I have to take a dump.
Jake Burger, 3B, Chicago White Sox
Yoán Moncada is being allowed to take his time apparently to return. Word was he would come back for the Pale Hose upcoming road trip. That might not be the case now. I think a lot of that has to do with the slugging of Jake Burger. I love this dude’s openness! I also love his bat! Burger can power up with the best of them. Burger hit a home run in all three games against Baltimore last weekend. Definitely not sustainable, but certainly no fluke either. Burger is fairly garbo when it comes to defense, but for now it’s time to enjoy the fruits. Burger’s fruits are tasty!
Domingo Germán, SP, New York Yankees
I’m sure you caught the ridiculous scene at Yankee Stadium last Saturday that sent Rocco Baldelli into an ejection worthy frenzy. Domingo Germán struck out 11 Twins with 9 of his 18 whiffs via the curveball. Germán was told to wash his hands by the umps in between innings because he was loaded up with too much resin. Germán comes out the following inning to pitch again with plenty of resin on his hands. He says he washes his hands and that’s essentially good enough for the umps. This has to be the most ineffectual umpiring in recent memory. It’s early, but Germán has struck out 19 batters with no walks in his two home starts while getting zero hitters to whiff with 5 walks in his lone road appearance at Cleveland. As Jack suspiciously states in Sideways, “sure seems fishy.”
Brady Singer, SP, Kansas City Royals
Sad times in Kansas City with Kris Bubic enticing everybody to come on in for his 2023 breakout party and then immediately telling everybody that they don’t have to go home but they can’t stay here. Brady Singer wasn’t much help to the Royals last weekend either when he surrendered 8 ER, 4 dongs and 10 hits to ATL. On the plus side, Singer secured a solid 36% CSW. He also induced 14 swinging strikes leading to his strikeout total matching his earned run count across 5 IP. The surface on Planet Singer appears unforgiving. Digging deeper within the analytics though reveals a rich source of fantasy baseball nutrients. Singer pitches again Wednesday at home against the Rangers. Expect a much better outcome for him in that matchup.
Corbin Burnes, SP, Milwaukee Brewers
I have been expressing my concern about Corbin Burnes on Twitter over the first three weeks of the season. A person I trust enlightened me back in February about possible injury concerns for Burnes. Now to be clear, I was not given any specific injury tips. The whisper shared with me was more of a gut feeling from a guy who has been pretty dependent when it comes to calling pitcher injuries. I definitely wasn’t given Deep Throat-level inside information. I never get it twisted. His first two starts seemed to give credence to this hush-hush info I was given. Then Burnes shut me up with an excellent performance against Arizona last week. When Burnes left his start Monday against the Mariners, he had struck out 3 on 9 swinging strikes. Burnes even got the win when he left after 85 pitches because it was the 6th inning. The latest news on the Burnes injury is very upbeat though as Burnes stated that the discomfort felt more like his sternum than his pectoral. With Brandon Woodruff out for a while, Milwaukee cannot afford further damage to their rotation. As of now, it appears Burnes isn’t at risk of landing on the IL. All fantasy managers who roster Burnes should be doing the happy dance right about now.
Mason Miller, SP, Oakland Athletics
Oakland isn’t wasting any time. They have selected Mason Miller and his electric fastball from their AAA squad to make his MLB debut Wednesday. If you Google Mason Miller, you will notice a lack of innings in his career profile. Injuries have been partly to blame for that. I was at the Arizona Fall League last year where Miller created a buzz based with his performance. It appears that his excellent spring training and his latest appearance at AAA Vegas (he struck out 11 over 5 flawless frames) caused Oakland to give him the nod. He has the stuff, but how many wins or quality starts will Miller provide if he comes out hot? I am concerned he can give you a healthy dose of either. Especially in season-long fantasy. He will rack up K’s, so leagues that have K9 as a category are a plus for Miller. I would also add him in H2H leagues where he can be a difference maker in a smaller sample. That’s where he may be most valuable going forward in fantasy baseball.
J.D. Davis, 1B/3B, San Francisco Giants
Adding to that “depth at 3B” bit I did earlier in this piece, J.D. Davis is giving me goosebumps with his strong-hitting ways. That reaction is likely a reminder of the dream I once had for Davis back in 2019 when he looked like he was going to become a mainstay slugger for the Mets. That dream died due to poor play and injuries. Leave it to the Giants though to get the most out of a guy who showed tantalizing ability but was derailed for one reason or another. Davis had a 55.6% HHR in 2022. He’s come back with a solid 48.6% to begin 2023. His xBA and xSLG are actually higher than his current numbers. The key piece above all is his regular playing time. David could match his best season this year. It’s not a fluke.
Brayan Bello, SP, Boston Red Sox
Boston brought Brayan Bello back for his season debut Monday for the annual Patriots Day game at 11 a.m. There was an hour-long rain delay that may have thrown Bello off. He was rocked from the start by the Angels with Hunter Renfroe sealing Bello’s fate with a three-run dong. Bello was disappointed with his performance, but he will get another chance this weekend when Boston faces the Brew Crew. 5 K’s over 2.2 IP is uplifting for the exciting youngster even if he did cough up 5 ER. Bello has the tools to be a reliable piece of your roster all season. If someone in your league was disenfranchised after his 2023 debut and dropped him, fantasy managers in 12-teamers and deeper should be looking to add him.
