Fantasy Baseball ADP Market Report (Jan. 21)

This article is the first in a series focusing on prominent risers and fallers in average draft position based on completed drafts at the NFBC. To start, we will look at those players whose ADP rose or fell materially in Draft Champions leagues, which are 15-team, 50-round draft-and-hold contests. Later this preseason, we will shift our focus to Online Championship leagues, which are 12-team, 30-round contests with FAAB.

The purpose of these articles is to ensure that fantasy managers are not only aware of which players are rising and falling in ADP, but also to understand why these changes are occurring so that potential market efficiencies can be evaluated and exploited.

For this article, the “old” ADP data is taken from 36 DC drafts that were completed in December 2024 and compared to “new” data from eight DC drafts that were completed this month. To capture meaningful market trends, we examine risers and fallers based on the percentage of ADP movement.

Top ADP Risers – Pitchers

Some – but not all – of the pitchers moving up in ADP are responding to positive news impacting their anticipated 2025 fantasy value.

Chris Martin signed a one-year contract with Texas and, as of this writing, is the most likely candidate to close games for the Rangers. Notwithstanding the possibility that Martin ultimately is supplanted as the team’s likely closer, his signing and current position within the bullpen hierarchy warranted a healthy rise from his December ADP. Despite advanced age (he will turn 39 in June), Martin pitched effectively for Boston last season (50 K in 44.1 IP, 3.45 ERA, 1.13 WHIP). That noted, Martin’s MLB season-high in saves is four (in 2019) and, therefore, managers should not be surprised if a team with playoff and perhaps championship aspirations elects to add an experienced closer at some point this offseason.

As experienced early drafters are aware, players who are free agents often are discounted due to uncertainty about their future teams, and then their ADPs tend to rise, sometimes significantly, when they sign with new teams. Several of the pitcher ADP risers fall into this category:

• Justin Verlander signed with San Francisco Jan. 7. Shortly thereafter, Verlander stated that he started throwing earlier than usual this offseason and is already touching 92 mph. The Giants have a favorable home park, especially for someone like Verlander, an extreme fly-ball pitcher. Managers still need to decide whether a 42-year-old Verlander will be able to rebound from his career-worst season in 2024 (74 K in 90.1 IP, 5.48 ERA, 1.38 WHIP).

• Charlie Morton was a free agent following the end of last season, and there initially were rumors that he was likely to retire. Consequently, his early ADP not only reflected uncertainty about leaving Atlanta, but also that he might not pitch in 2025. As we now know, Morton decided to continue his career and to do so with Baltimore on a one-year contact. Signing with one of the best teams in baseball helped boost Morton’s early ADP. While Morton has made at least 30 starts in each of the last four seasons and continues to strike out over a batter per inning, his WHIP was unhelpful in 2023 and 2024 (1.43 and 1.32, respectively), and he will be 41 to start the 2025 season.

• This year’s top free agent starting pitcher, Corbin Burnes, signed a six-year, $210 million contract with Arizona near the end of December. Burnes is coming off another successful season, his only one in Baltimore (15 wins, 181 K in 194.1 IP, 2.92 ERA, 1.10 WHIP), although savvy managers are concerned with a shrinking strikeout rate (K% since 2021: 35.6%, 30.5%, 25.5% and 23.1%). Considering potential alternative landing spots, managers seem pleased that Burnes will be pitching for the Diamondbacks, and his ADP has risen since the signing.

Sometimes, a trade to a better team and/or situation also can cause a player’s ADP to rise. Two starting pitchers on the list fall into this category:

• Jesús Luzardo was shipped to Philadelphia Dec. 22. Without question, getting out of Miami should help Luzardo’s win total, but managers are reminded that Luzardo is moving to a more hitter-friendly home park and has struggled to remain healthy (IP since 2021: 95.1, 100.1, 178.2 and 66.2). Luzardo indicated recently that he feels healthy and is having a normal offseason, providing managers (and Phillies fans) with hope for 2025.

• Shooting up DC ADP is Garrett Crochet, who was traded to Boston Dec. 11 for four prospects. Much of the ADP boost resulting from that trade already was reflected in the old ADP, but Crochet continues his unrelenting climb up draft boards. Crochet was utterly dominant in 2024 (209 K in 146 IP), and getting away from the historically bad White Sox alone warrants a rise in ADP. Managers must evaluate whether combining Crochet’s awesome stuff with a major team upgrade is enough to overcome a worrisome health history prior to 2024 and the dangers of relying on a left-handed pitcher whose home games are played at Fenway Park.

In addition to Chris Martin, there are several other relief pitchers on the list of ADP risers. With Milwaukee’s trade of stud closer Devin Williams, Trevor Megill appears slated to resume that role. Megill served as the Brewers’ closer for a portion of the 2024 season while Williams recovered from injury and was tremendous (21 saves, 50 K in 46.1 IP, 2.72 ERA, 1.01 WHIP). While Milwaukee has many intriguing arms in its bullpen, managers are assuming, reasonably, that the closer role is Megill’s to lose.

Sometimes, the lack of news can help drive ADP. David Bednar and Ryan Walker, for instance, are the presumed closers for Pittsburgh and San Francisco, respectively. In the absence of news to the contrary, and any major bullpen signings by the Pirates and Giants, managers are becoming increasingly confident that Bednar and Walker will open the 2025 season as their teams’ closers. The ADP rise by Carlos Estévez, however, is more mysterious, as he remains without a team less than a month before pitchers and catchers report to spring training. Notwithstanding the lack of news on Estévez, the marketplace is growing confident that when he signs with a new team, it will be as that team’s closer.

Top ADP Risers – Hitters

Some of the top rising hitters by ADP similarly have changed teams to fantasy managers’ approval. Gavin Lux, who was traded from the Dodgers to the Reds, will experience major team and lineup downgrades, but managers perceive redeeming aspects to this transaction. First, Lux’s playing time may be safer with Cincinnati. Second, while Dodger Stadium is viewed as hitter-friendly, it cannot compare in that respect to Great American Ball Park. Third, while Lux has never lived up to the promise he showed in the minor leagues, at least some believe a change in scenery may work to his advantage.

While managers may approve of Lux leaving the Dodgers, they are very pleased that free agent Teoscar Hernández is returning to the team. Hernández had a tremendous first season with Los Angeles in 2024 (33 HR, 84 R, 99 RBIs, 12 SB, .272 BA), and it is tough to envision a better lineup context than hitting behind Shohei Ohtani, Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman.

Isaac Paredes, Thairo Estrada and Josh Bell also have new homes, driving a rise in ADP. Paredes, who bats right-handed, is an extreme pull hitter who appears well-situated to take advantage of Houston’s Crawford Boxes, a section that is only 315 feet away from home plate down the left-field line. Paredes had 31 home runs and 98 RBIs in 2023, and managers are hoping a more favorable home park will spark a power resurgence following a down 2024 season.

Estrada was injured and played terribly in 2024, resulting in a loss of playing time and then a demotion to the minor leagues. The chances for a bounceback 2025 season increased materially when Estrada signed as a free agent to play for Colorado. Coors Field is an extreme hitters’ park, and, with the Rockies’ release of Brendan Rodgers, Estrada has a chance to claim a starting role as the team’s second baseman (although the acquisition of Kyle Farmer probably means that Estrada will need to earn the starting role). Managers appear optimistic that he will do so.

Managers also approve of Bell’s new home with Washington, one that should provide the switch hitter with a full-time role as the team’s first baseman or, more likely, designated hitter. Bell is a consistent hitter who has played in at least 144 games every season since 2021. Bell should hit somewhere near the middle of what looks to be an improving Nationals lineup.

In a case where no news may be good news, the Padres’ ownership dispute and reported lack of financial flexibility seemingly have contributed to a dearth of free-agent acquisitions, including at the catcher position. With the departure of Kyle Higashioka, and the absence of any highly regarded catchers, the starting role seemingly belongs to Luis Campusano, sparking a steady rise in his ADP. Campusano struggled in 2024 (8 HR, 37 R, 40 RBIs, .227 BA) and finished the season in the minor leagues. For now, however, Campusano is well situated to be the Padres’ primary catcher in 2025.

Finally, as the offseason has progressed, it has become increasingly apparent that the Cubs will provide rookie Matt Shaw with every opportunity to win the starting third base job. While Chicago has been rumored as a possible destination for various experienced third basemen, nothing has materialized, and general manager Carter Hawkins stated recently that the Cubs expect Shaw “to do everything he possibly can” to claim the third base vacancy. Shaw is an exciting prospect who hit 21 home runs and stole 31 bases across the high minors in 2024. Whether Shaw’s power and speed will translate immediately at the big-league level remains to be seen, but managers are pushing Shaw up draft boards, and the opportunity to roster power and speed at a corner infield position is always appealing.

Top ADP Fallers – Pitchers

Most of the big ADP fallers among pitchers have been the subject of recent news that, in the eyes of managers, lowers their fantasy value. Luke Weaver, for instance, was viewed as the Yankees’ closer in early drafts, but that changed as soon as the team traded for Devin Williams. While Weaver still can be valuable as a high-strikeout reliever likely to accumulate some wins and saves, managers use early-round selections on closers, not setup men, and so Weaver’s ADP started falling in December when the trade was announced and has continued to sink precipitously.

More recently, Yimi García has been experiencing a similar fate. Reacquired by Toronto, managers selecting García were hoping he would serve as the team’s closer in 2025. However, the Blue Jays’ recent acquisition of Jeff Hoffman will relegate García to a setup role and, consequently, his ADP is declining.

Offseason trades also have dampened managers’ interest in Jeffrey Springs and Brady Singer.  Springs moves from Tampa Bay to the Athletics and what should be a hitter-friendly park in Sacramento. Springs’ decline in ADP could represent a buying opportunity if he is fully healthy. In 2022, his last full season before Tommy John surgery, Springs pitched extremely well, tallying 144 strikeouts in 135.1 innings with excellent ratios (2.46 ERA, 1.07 WHIP). Like Springs, Singer’s trade results in apparent team and park downgrades (from Kansas City and Kauffman Stadium to Cincinnati and Great American Ball Park). Singer allows a fair amount of hard contact, and, over the last five seasons, his HR/FB rate has ranged from 12.8% to 15.1%. That percentage is likely to rise in 2025 – Kauffman is hitter friendly, but tends to depress home runs, whereas GABP inflates home run totals.

The ADP for Braxton Garrett fell sharply – and appropriately – following news that the Miami hurler recently underwent surgery on his left elbow and will miss the 2025 season. Managers should avoid drafting Garrett late in DCs no matter where he may sit in the NFBC’s default queue. Similarly, news that Philadelphia prospect Andrew Painter may not pitch in the major leagues until the summer also sent his ADP spiraling downward. According to a report by Matt Gelb in The Athletic, “Phillies plan to save Andrew Painter’s innings for ‘July-ish’” and “Painter will throw but not pitch games in spring training, then build in minors at some point.” While managers still may be willing to draft Painter in DC leagues in the hopes of a strong second half, he is unlikely to be drafted in FAAB leagues with shorter benches unless his timeline changes.

Top ADP Fallers – Hitters

By percentage, the biggest ADP faller was Ronald Acuña Jr. His fantasy value when healthy is unquestioned – he is an elite player – but his 2025 ADP is subject to volatility depending on the latest health news. Acuña is recovering from his second torn ACL (in a different knee); applying the nine-month recovery period he experienced following his first ACL surgery to this one, Acuña could be ready by the middle of March. While the Braves, and fantasy managers, expect Acuña to start the season on the IL, his ADP should rise if it appears likely that he will debut sometime in early- to mid-April. Indeed, a recent video of Acuña taking batting practice already seems to have his ADP ticking up again.

Recent news has not been so rosy for Noelvi Marte and Spencer Torkelson. In the case of Marte, he may be the odd man out with Cincinnati’s acquisition of Gavin Lux and the return of Matt McLain, who missed the 2024 season. As managers will recall, Marte missed half of last season due to a PED suspension and then struggled mightily when he did play (in 66 games, 242 PA, he totaled only 24 R, 4 HR and 18 RBIs with a .210 BA). While Marte will have a chance to compete for the third base job in spring training, he is expected to start the season in the minors barring injury to one of the Reds’ presumed starters. Torkelson also seemingly has been displaced by Detroit’s acquisition of Gleyber Torres to play second base. The team already has announced that last season’s second baseman, Colt Keith, will start the year as the Tigers’ first baseman, likely leaving Torkelson to compete for a bench role (although the team may prefer him to play regularly in the minors in the hopes that he can regain his swing). Following a strong 2023 season where Torkelson totaled 33 home runs and 94 RBIs, he struggled badly in 2024, managing only 10 home runs and 37 RBIs with a .219 BA in the majors (and spent several months in the minors).

Not only did Detroit’s signing of Torres hurt Torkelson’s ADP, it also caused Torres’ ADP to fall. In most cases, when a free agent signs with a new team, his ADP rises. The exception is when the player lands in what the market considers to be an unfavorable destination. Detroit plays in a pitcher’s park and, in 2024, ranked 24^th in home runs and 26^th in stolen bases. Torres is coming off a surprisingly poor season – despite avoiding injury and playing in 154 games, he saw his home run total drop from 25 to 15 and his stolen bases decline from 13 to four. While a rebound on a one-year “prove-it” contract certainly is possible, managers clearly were hoping that Torres would sign with a more fantasy-friendly team.

Finally, Anthony Rizzo and Ben Rice, both of whom played first base for the Yankees in 2024, make appearances on the ADP fallers list. Rizzo was terrible in 2024 (8 HR, 38 R, 35 RBIs, .228 BA in 92 games), and managers are beginning to suspect that the 35-year-old’s MLB career may be ending (or, if Rizzo does latch on somewhere, it will not be in a full-time role). As for Rice, he also struggled badly at the major league level in 2024 (7 HR, 20 R, 23 RBIs, .171 BA in 50 games), and hopes that he would be given another shot at the first base job in 2025 were dashed when the team signed Paul Goldschmidt. Rice hit well in the upper minors last season and still may have a future with the team, but it is difficult to envision him becoming fantasy-relevant for this coming season absent an injury to Goldschmidt.