Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
Data in baseball runs deeper and is more comprehensive than in any other sport. In fact, there are so many stats that, in virtually every matchup, you can find a stat to favor each side. Rather, we want to find stats that are fully supported by the collection of stats, painting one clear picture.
These are the seven stats I find most relevant to Tuesday’s DFS slate.
1. 10.1%
Taijuan Walker toes the line between good and bad pitcher as much as anyone else in the league. On the one hand, he has a .316 wOBA allowed. On the other, his SIERA is over 4.5 and his ISO allowed is over .175. Of all of his numbers, however, the one that stands out the most to me is his 10.1% barrel rate allowed in the last 30 days. Simply put, that won’t work against the mighty Dodgers.
Walker’s best pitch is a splitter, but the Dodgers can handle splitters with the best of them, particularly Justin Turner, Will Smith and Max Muncy.
2. 30.3%
The highest K rate on the slate belongs to Blake Snell, at 30.3%. Whenever a lefty is facing San Francisco, we have to be wary of his splits to each hand, as the Giants will load up on right-handed bats. Fortunately, Snell’s splits aren’t too severe — his K rate to righties is 29.7%, for example.
3. 34.2%
Aaron Nola’s 34.2% CSW over the last 30 days is indicative of just how well he’s pitched. That number is easily the best on Tuesday’s slate, as he’s been a true ace in the league. Arizona is far from a pushover, especially with some of their recent call-ups, but it might not matter if Nola continues to command all of his pitches the way he has in recent starts.
4. -2 percentage points
Kevin Gausman’s CSW is down two percentage points in the last 30 days, to a remedial 27.3%. What makes this extra concerning is the fact that his Statcast data is also trending in the wrong direction. His exit velocity is up, his hard-hit rate is up, and his barrel rate is up considerably.
Early signs point to Gausman being one of the most popular pitching options on the slate, which would make him a clear fade for me.
5. 20.1%
Speaking of bad CSW trends, José Ureña’s CSW has dipped to a near impossibly low 20.1%, three percentage points below his baseline. The beauty about attacking Urena is we know who to choose — guys who hit sinkers well. He throws his sinker around 55% of the time and it’s not a good pitch by any means.
Michel Harris is the best Brave against sinkers, gaining over three runs per 100 pitches (an incredible number), while Matt Olson is the only lefty who gains runs against both the sinker and changeup (Urena’s worst pitch that he throws almost 20% of the time).
6. -3.2 percentage points
Lucas Giolito is one of the most interesting case studies I can remember in terms of recent data trends. His CSW is down 3.2 percentage points, yet he hasn’t allowed a barreled ball since July 27 in Coors Field. His average exit velocity and hard-hit rate are both down, as well.
When diving deeper into the matter, we see that Giolito is losing a significant amount of runs with all of his off-speed pitches, and his fastball has lost runs in three of his last four starts. I think the batted ball data is a fluke and his lack of command will begin to show up in his Statcast data sooner than later. It wouldn’t shock me to see a Kansas City explosion.
7. 3.36 & 3.2
On a slate without any slam-dunk pitchers, I’m drawn to the 3.36 and 3.2 SIERAs of Max Fried and George Kirby, respectively. Fried’s elite 14.9 pitch-per-inning ratio gives him the highest median projection of the day in the Strikeout Model, while Kirby’s matchup with Detroit gives him a solid floor while also adding to his K upside.
Particularly if Blake Snell becomes chalk, I would be comfortable pivoting to a pitcher-pairing that is all about a solid floor in Fried and Kirby.
