Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
Data in baseball runs deeper and is more comprehensive than any other sport. These are the seven stats I find most relevant to Friday’s DFS slate.
1. Bryce Harper was 5-for-8 with 2 HRs and 2 BBs in his 2 rehab games
The Phillies are in a great spot here at home against Bryse Wilson. He has a 5.07 xFIP and has allowed a .273 ISO to left-handed hitters. Wilson is basically the perfect pitcher for Bryce Harper to face in his first game back. He’s also a good matchup for Kyle Schwarber, who has a .315 ISO against right-handed pitching. Nick Castellanos and J.T. Realmuto have been hot lately, and Rhys Hoskins has a .203 ISO against right-handed pitching. Nick Maton is another option to use in Phillies stacks if he’s in the lineup because he’s left-handed.
2. Ryan Yarbrough has a 5.27 xFIP
Ryan Yarbrough has allowed a .194 ISO to right-handed hitters. The Red Sox have four hitters in their projected lineup with an ISO above .185 against left-handed pitching in Tommy Pham, J.D. Martinez, Xander Bogaerts and Kiké Hernández. The Red Sox also have a bunch of usable cheap pieces as Alex Verdugo is under $3,500 and Christian Arroyo is $2,500 while Franchy Cordero and Jarren Duran remain minimum priced. Stack Boston.
3. Mike Minor has a 6.11 xFIP
The Nationals aren’t a great offense or anything, but you have to admit that Luke Voit, Nelson Cruz, Lane Thomas and Joey Meneses are all in great spots here at home against Mike Minor. He’s allowed a .284 ISO to right-handed batters this season. While Minor’s home park in Cincinnati is a hitters’ park, he gets no break here in Washington as the ballpark also favors batters. The Nationals are a legitimate stack and incredibly cheap.
4. Glenn Otto has a 5.70 xFIP
Glenn Otto has a 17% K% and 12% BB%. No team is cheaper than the Tigers, because they’re terrible, but Otto is also no good. Victor Reyes and Kerry Carpenter are minimum priced, and Riley Greene and Javier Báez are below $4,000. Between the Nationals and Tigers, there’s no shortage of value hitters on this slate. Tigers make a lot of sense as a cheap and contrarian secondary stack.
5. Justin Steele has a 24.5 K%
Justin Steele has struck out at least nine batters in three of his last four starts. In one of those starts, he went 4.2 innings. In another of those starts, his last start against the same team he’ll face Friday in the Brewers, he threw six scoreless innings allowing just two hits and a walk. At $7,600 and little rostership, Steele is one of my favorite pitchers on the entire slate.
6. Shane Bieber has a 24% K%
Shane Bieber has struck out 34 batters in 33.1 innings over his last five starts. He has a 3.00 ERA on the road this season. At $9,100, there’s enough upside here for him to be your SP1 on this slate. It’s a ballpark upgrade for Bieber going to Seattle, but the Mariners are a legitimate offense and have power as Eugenio Suárez, Mitch Haniger, Julio Rodríguez and Cal Raleigh all have ISOs above .200 against right-handed pitching this season.
7. Gerrit Cole has a 3.43 xFIP
Gerrit Cole is $10,700 here, but facing the Athletics on the road is about as good of a matchup as you can get at this point. Oakland is dead last in all of baseball averaging 2.84 runs per game at home entering play Friday. Only Seth Brown and Shea Langeliers have ISOs above .200 against right-handed pitching. Cole has allowed just a .161 ISO to left-handed hitters and a .163 ISO to right-handed hitters. He has a 31% K% and six hitters in the projected Athletics lineup have a K% above 20% against right-handed pitching.
