Prime-Time First TD Bets — Sunday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Data in baseball runs deeper and is more comprehensive than any other sport. These are the five stats I find most relevant to Thursday’s DFS slate.
1. Clayton Kershaw has a 2.08 ERA
Clayton Kershaw is the most expensive pitcher and the chalk SP1 on this slate. The Dodgers are on the road as big favorites against the Reds. Kershaw has made two starts since coming off the IL — he went four and five innings in those two starts and faced 18 and 20 batters. That’s not the typical leash that a fully stretched-out Kershaw has. Kershaw has good numbers this year with his 3.47 xFIP, 27% K%, 4% BB% and 49% ground ball percentage. The Cincinnati lineup has a decent amount of power hitters against lefties, though, as four hitters in their lineup have an ISO above .200 against left-handed pitching (Tommy Pham, Brandon Drury, Kyle Farmer and Albert Almora).
2. The Cubs scored 14 runs Wednesday
The Cubs were the chalk stack of the slate, and they came through big time. I imagine that will have some folks back on the Cubs this afternoon. However, the Cubs are only slight favorites against the Pirates Thursday. José Quintana has a 3.66 ERA, 4.66 xFIP, 20% K%, 8% BB% and 44% ground ball percentage this year. He’s been solid going at least five innings in his last two starts. At $7,600, he is one of the best values on the slate considering he’s one of the best pitching options and very cheap.
3. Kyle Wright has a 53% ground ball percentage
The Giants aren’t typically a fun team to play pitchers against. San Francisco is adept at using platoons to their advantage and they have power up and down the lineup. The hitting weather is good in Atlanta and the Giants scored 12 runs there Tuesday night. However, the Giants are implied for the second-lowest run total on this slate behind only the Marlins. Kyle Wright is expensive at $9,900, but he’s been good this year with a 2.94 ERA, 3.62 xFIP, 27% K% and 8% BB%. He’s also completed six innings in his last five starts and struck out at least seven batters in his last three starts. Wright makes sense as the pivot off Kershaw.
4. Hunter Greene has a 4.72 xFIP
The Dodgers are the top stack on this slate, getting the park upgrade going to Cincinnati to face Hunter Greene. Los Angeles has the highest implied team run total on the slate. The Dodgers are going to be the chalk stack of this slate, so it’ll be important to differentiate within your stack if you play the Dodgers. One way to do that is through Justin Turner. It appears the third baseman will only be 5-10% rostered compared to a much higher number for Max Muncy. However, Greene has allowed a .341 ISO to right-handed hitters this year compared to just a .148 ISO against left-handed hitters. I’m going with the righty in Turner this afternoon.
5. Jason Alexander has a 5.20 xFIP
The Cardinals only scored five runs Wednesday, but they did get home runs from star infielders Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado. Rookie infielder Nolan Gorman homered twice two nights ago. Outfielder Dylan Carlson stole a base Wednesday. Despite Tyler O’Neill hitting the injured list recently, things are looking up for the St. Louis offense. Alexander has a 2.42 ERA in 22 innings, but his xFIP is much higher and he’s walked more batters than he’s struck out so far. He’s unlikely to skate by an offense like the Cardinals if he keeps that up. I really like the Cardinals as a contrarian stack on this slate as the field will fill their lineups with mostly Dodgers and Twins.
