NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
What a wild ride.
We pour our hearts and souls into preseason research, draft strategy, roster construction, ADP, projections, setting lineups and 27 grueling weeks of FAAB. And just like that, it’s over. There are going to be a couple of days of emptiness. Like when you instinctively click an app on your phone only to instantly remember there are no MLB lineups to be posted. No box scores to peruse. We’ll enjoy the playoffs, and some of us will enter playoff fantasy leagues or play some MLB playoff DFS to keep that fire burning. Some will jump right back into it with 2024 drafts, while most of us will let a bit of time pass first before starting to look ahead to next draft season, needing some time to breathe, relax and concentrate on other facets of our lives.
I wanted to first shout out our subscribers at FTN Fantasy MLB. I’ve seen a ton of thank-you tweets come through to our team for helping you win your leagues. Wanted to point out that it was you who did the research, drafted and managed your team all season. You soaked up different viewpoints, acted on what your own research and gut told you. You did the work and many of you succeeded. There were also some bad beats and breaks this last weekend, and that’s usually par for the course of a 26.5-week fantasy season. I’ve seen people leading their leagues for most of the season, only to lose it this final weekend. It’s a reminder of how vital every single RBI, SB and K is. And there are certainly processes we can put in place to be more mindful and proactive about this over the course of a full season – something I’ll talk about in the 2024 FTN MLB Draft Guide.
Next, I wanted to shout out some of the folks who had tremendous results this fantasy season.
2023 NFBC Review – The Winners
First, to Brian Slack, who is the winner of the Main Event and over $200,000. I don’t use the word mensch lightly when describing Brian, who is very deserving of this accolade. He’s one of the best fantasy baseball players I have ever competed against and he’s also just an absolutely incredible human being – super intelligent, thoughtful, and one of those rare people who listens, not just waits his turn to talk. Slack shared the team with stud dynasty analyst Dylan White of Baseball America.
Next is Drew Forte, winner of $150,000 and the NFBC Online Championship. I don’t know exactly how long it was, but I think Drew held first place overall for at least four months. Pure dominance and something I don’t think has ever happened in this contest. I had Drew on the FTN Fantasy Baseball podcast a few months ago and was impressed with his sharp analytical mindset and his robust process for both draft prep and in-season management. We’ll have Drew join Mattywood and I on the final podcast of the season.
Matthew Shephard was the winner of the NFBC Auction Championship with a $30,000 grand prize. You’ve probably seen Matt’s teams ahead of you in the league standings with his infamous MORONS moniker. Matt joins us in Vegas to draft live each year. He’s an incredibly kind and humble person. The legend himself Dave Potts came close, but no cigar, as the NFBC Hall of Famer finished second overall in the Auction Championship. Doug Gruber had two teams in the top-15 overall there, and of course our guy Mattywood finished in the top 15 as well.
A big shout out to Clark Olson (Hell Bent For Leather) – another guy you should try to avoid in your leagues if possible. Clark not only crushes NFFC football, but he’s a force to be reckoned with in baseball. He finished seventh and 14th overall in the Main Event, winning both of those leagues. One of them was a league I drafted against him in Vegas where I was mad that he got Triston Casas to fall to him 50 rounds past his ADP. I looked at his team afterwards and told him he was probably going to win the league. Clark also finished fourth out of 4,845 teams in the Draft Champions.
Then of course there’s the legend John Pausma, who was a huge favorite to win the NFBC Main Event again this season. We all know the legacy of this Hall of Famer, and it was business as usual for him as he cashed in four of his five Main Event entries. Ironically, he did not win the league where he finished ninth overall. Bill Gaffney just happened to be in that league and finished fifth overall. So, yep, two teams in the top 10 overall of the Main Event in one league.
Then there’s Steven Weimer, one of the most respected analytical fantasy minds in the industry who yet again came close to taking down an overall title for the third year in a row. In 2021, he was one spot away from winning the DC, in 2022 he had two teams in the mix for the Main Event overall and now this year he finished fifth and ninth in the DC. That type of consistency only happens with current or future NFBC Hall of Famers. Steve also finished 10th overall in the Main Event!
Shout out to Lucas Biery who took down the NFBC Online Auction Championship. Lucas is another one of the good guys – awesome human, sharp drafter and great fantasy player. Our FTN colleague Adam Young finished ninth overall in this contest, this after finishing 12th overall in his first full season in NFBC in 2022. Looks like we’ve got a good one on the staff here. Adam will be the one providing Auction-related content for 2024 subscribers.
Then of course there’s our guy Todd Whitestone, who’s job it’s been to track the NFBC Main Event. Of course, Todd messed around and won two of his Main Events. Our guy Mattywood cashed in a Main Event, finished 14th overall in the Auction Championship (though lost the league on the last weekend to Justin Mason, congrats Mase!) and beat the snot out of 14 others in the $400 DC Matty and I were in together.
Impressive work by Danny Bronski, who was the only person to win three Main Event titles this season.
Last but not least is a guy named Bob Catsiroumpas. I have never talked to Bob but did figure out that he’s from Canada – so there’s another point for y’all north of the border. Bob had a magical season, finishing 3rd overall in the Main Event and 2nd overall in the OC. The latter accomplishment came at the expense of $10,000 less in my pocket, as Bob caught and passed me on the final day of the season. I hope Bob joins us in Vegas next year so that we can hear a bit about his success in person. Bob had three teams in the top-12 overall in the OC. An incredible season.
As for me, well, it was a great season in the overall components (prize wise), but not ideal in my 15-teamers. I finished with that 3rd overall in the 12tm OC and also a lucky 3rd overall in the Cutline, which ended two weeks ago. My infamous Ronald Acuña Jr.–Shohei Ohtani–Spencer Strider OC (not the team that was 3rd overall) was in first in its league for most of the last two months, but Jack Kitchen caught me over the weekend and won the league. Among my five OC’s, I finished 1st, 1st, 2nd, 2nd, 3rd. That third place doesn’t pay anything, and those two 2nd placers are painful since they came down to the last day of the season. The league that mattered most to me the first few months was my Super Auction, but I finished just out of the money (fourth place; Monday update: standings changed on Monday and I’m now 5th, a half-point behind Jenny Butler) in a league where the roto assassin himself, Toby Guevin, took it all down. Props to Toby and a good reminder to not draft against him if at all possible. I also came in second in the $1000 DC, but that’s fine because it was Phil Dussault who won that league. He should make his team names “Can’t Catch Phil.” Oh, and Phil also won the NFBC Platinum, which is the single largest prize payout in fantasy league history. UPDATE: one more I just found – Phil also finished 2nd in the Ultimate High Stakes Auction. I’m sure there are more accolades, but just between the Platinum and the Ultimate, that’s $140k!
Here’s a quick look at my OC draft for the team that came in 3rd overall in the OC:
You’ll look at this team, see Acuna, then look at the rest and say…how, Vlad?
FAAB, my friends. It was the FAAB.
Obviously, Acuna and Corey Seager helped propel the team there, J.D. Martinez, Michael Wacha, Yandy Díaz and Jorge Soler were profitable later-round picks, and I had some good pitching (Kevin Gausman, Blake Snell, Félix Bautista, and sometimes Charlie Morton and Jesús Luzardo).
But look at how many misses.
- Oneil Cruz didn’t play
- Taylor Ward struggled most of the season before getting knocked out of it
- Jacob deGrom missed most of the season
- Steven Kwan, Ryan Mountcastle and even Paul Goldschmidt were all mediocre (none of them technically hurt me though)
Most of the rest of these guys were easy drops. I do have to give some love to a 15th-round Alec Bohm though I dropped Gabriel Moreno when he went on IL and didn’t get to enjoy his massive hot streak on this roster. As you can see, it’s a decent roster, but not a monster draft.
I had a handful of big whiffs. I spent $136 on Gavin Stone only for him to put my ERA and WHIP onto life support after two starts. I spent $86 on Tylor Megill in April, and he paid me back by stinking and losing his rotation spot, only to come back looking like vintage Roy Oswalt in the month of September when he was long gone from my squad. I also spent $45 on Mike Trout in the final week of August thinking I’d strike it rich, but alas, he never found his way back onto the field. Another mistake was grabbing Kyle Bradish for $23, then dropping him the following week. At least it was for my most productive (and most expensive) FAAB addition this season, Tanner Bibee.
Here are the FAAB pickups who really helped this team get to third in the OC:
- James Outman ($46), dropped, added back 2 months later for $1
- Tanner Bibee ($262)
- Mitch Keller ($26)
- Matt McLain ($23)
- Ha-Seong Kim ($5)
- Eddie Rosario ($2)
- The Good Bryan Woo ($3)
- Nick Pivetta ($4)
- Kyle Finnegan ($3)
- Jorge Polanco ($2)
- A.J. Puk ($6)
- Tanner Scott ($2), for when Puk was fried and Scott took the job in August
- Andrew Vaughn ($3), though he’s so mediocre
- Griffin Canning ($3)
- Zack Gelof ($3)
- Michael Wacha ($1), had to get him back when he came off IL after I dropped him
- Michael King ($1), unhittable until this final start of the season, so if I was the type to blame players for my fantasy teams, it’d be this King start in KC on the last Sunday of the season that I can say harmed me. I had a 140-point lead on Bob C. for 2nd place in the OC heading into Sunday and my team limped to the finish line.
I’ll dive deeper into this during the draft guide, but it should be quite obvious that I reached far up in the OC overall standings because of the work I did in FAAB this season. I don’t think we can easily quantify this without really digging in and saying something like, “FAAB was more helpful to my final standings than my draft was” because it’s never that simple. But it is a discussion I’d like to have again this winter – the one about what’s more important, your draft results or FAAB. It’s certainly a nuanced discussion because there are so many non-quantifiable factors in play like our lineup setting and luck itself.
Nevertheless, I do strongly believe that FAAB is slightly less impactful in 15-team roto leagues than in 12-teamers. Meaning, you can pull off an NFBC league win with a mediocre draft in a 12tm OC more so than in a 15tm Main Event. I’m sure many of you have strong opinions on the topic, and perhaps I’ll bring it up in the Discord this week.
Well, now it’s time for MLB playoffs, fantasy football (for some) and seeing our families again. Those 2024 NFBC DC leagues are open if you just want to keep doing this all year long. I’m going to spend some time running through my brain, my 2023 drafts and my FAAB results so that I can take notes and identify weaknesses in my game and holes in my process and analysis.
Congrats again to all of us who grinded through this long season. May your team win the World Series (if your team is the Dodgers, of course!), and our team looks forward to working on the 2024 FTN Fantasy MLB Draft Guide, which we intend to make bigger and better every year going forward.
Cheers!
Vlad and the FTN Baseball Crew
