2022 MLB Home Run Leader Odds: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Favored

It’s been over a decade since any player led Major League Baseball in home runs for two straight seasons, but the betting odds suggest that trend could be coming to an end. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. was the 2021 MLB home run leader, and he has a good chance to repeat in 2022. 

Guerrero is favored on Opening Day to be the 2022 MLB home run leader with +700 odds at DraftKings Sportsbook. After hitting a league-high 48 home runs last year, the Toronto Blue Jays star could put up even better stats this season.

Pete Alonso’s +1000 odds to be the home run leader are the second best in all of baseball. The New York Mets first baseman made history by leading MLB with 53 home runs as a rookie in 2019. Alonso hit 37 homers a season ago.

The New York Yankees have a few candidates to become the MLB home run leader. Aaron Judge is third with +1200 odds. Joey Gallo is tied for fourth at +1400. Giancarlo Stanton isn’t too far behind with +2200 odds. Stanton has a 59-homer season on his resume and leads all active players with a home run in every 13.95 at-bats.

Los Angeles Angels stars Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani both have +1400 odds to hit more home runs than any other player. In his career, Trout averages 39 home runs for every 162 games. Ohtani launched 46 dingers in his 2021 AL MVP campaign.

Let’s break down Guerrero’s chances to be the MLB home run leader and take a look at other contenders in 2022.

Who will be the 2022 MLB home run leader?

Here are the best odds to lead Major League Baseball in home runs in 2022, per DraftKings Sportsbook.

Why is Vladimir Guerrero Jr. favored to be the 2022 MLB home run leader?

Guerrero hit 48 home runs last season, tied with Salvador Perez for the most in baseball. Guerrero’s .601 slugging percentage was also the best in the AL, and he finished second in the AL MVP race. The sky’s the limit for Guerrero, who is the son of a former MVP and hit .402 in double-A the year before his 2019 debut.

Durability is a factor in Guerrero’s odds to be baseball’s home run king. Guerrero doesn’t miss games, which is almost unheard of these days. He’s played in all but one contest over the last two seasons. At just 23 years old, the Blue Jays’ star is likely only getting better.

The Blue Jays will play a full season in Toronto in 2022 for the first time since 2019, a side effect of the pandemic. In that season, more home runs were hit in Rogers Centre than any other MLB stadium. The last player to be the home run champ in back-to-back seasons also played for the Blue Jays — José Bautista totaled 97 home runs between 2010 and 2011, with 53 of those homers coming in Toronto. 

Few MLB teams have higher expectations than the Blue Jays. Toronto enters Opening Day with the best World Series odds in the AL. The biggest reason for the hype surrounding Canada’s only baseball team is Guerrero’s presence in the middle of the lineup.

Long shot bets to lead MLB in home runs

Tyler O’Neill, St. Louis Cardinals (+3000)

Tyler O’Neill had a breakout season in 2021, hitting 34 home runs in 138 games. It was the first time the outfielder played more than 61 games in a year. If O’Neill can avoid a significant injury, he has the ability to compete for the home run crown.

Only 13 players averaged fewer at-bats per home run than O’Neill in 2021. O’Neill’s 11 home runs in September were the most in the NL. Opposing pitchers have little opportunity to pitch around him. The 26-year-old is usually sandwiched in between six-time All-Stars Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado in the Cardinals’ lineup. 

Getting the chance to constantly face NL Central pitching will only help O’Neill’s case. Sure, the Milwaukee Brewers might have the best overall pitching staff in baseball. That still leaves 57 games against the Cincinnati Reds, Pittsburgh Pirates and Chicago Cubs. All three of those clubs are considered to have mediocre pitching and finished last season in the bottom-10 in home runs allowed.

Nelson Cruz, Washington Nationals (+6000)

Even at 41 years old, Nelson Cruz remains one of the best pure power hitters in baseball. There’s value on the veteran at +6000 odds to be the MLB home run leader in his first season with the Washington Nationals. Cruz is only 51 home runs away from 500 for his career and is playing for a team that isn’t expected to compete for a title. That should give him plenty of motivation to swing for the fences in 2022.

At the very least, Cruz should be on the periphery of the 2022 home run chase for much of the season. The veteran finished in the top-10 in homers every season from 2014 to 2020. Cruz hit 32 home runs in 140 games last season for the Tampa Bay Rays and Minnesota Twins.

The slight dip in Cruz’s production could be explained by his home ballparks as much as his age — neither Minnesota’s Target Field nor Tampa Bays’ Tropicana Field were among the 19 ballparks that featured at least one home run per game last season. Nationals Park, on the other hand, was in that group. It was just three years ago that Washington’s home venue saw more homers than any ballpark in the NL. 

Understanding MLB Home Run Leader Odds

Never made a bet on the MLB home run leader? FTNBets has you covered. Create an account with a sportsbook that operates within your state. Once you’ve deposited money into your account, find the home run leader odds in the MLB futures section.

The odds will look something like this:

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. +700
Pete Alonso +1000
Aaron Judge +1200
Joey Gallo +1400
Shohei Ohtani +1400

The number next to the plus sign indicates what the payout will be for a correct $100 bet. The lowest number available indicates the favorite. A higher number means a chance for a greater profit, unless there is a minus sign next to the number, which is rarely the case for player props early in the regular season.

For example, if you bet $100 on Guerrero and he leads MLB in home runs at the end of the regular season, you’ll earn a $700 profit. Your sportsbook account would be credited $800 total, which includes your profit and the $100 you originally bet.

Check out the FTN Bets Parlay Calculator to see how much you’d win based on the odds and amount wagered.