Alex Blickle's Articles

Edit: This game has been moved to Monday at 4:30pm EST. That means lesser winds around 12mph and just a small chance of snow showers. It will still be very cold but not as cold as Kansas City on Saturday night. Get the shovels ready! Buffalo could be pelted with Lake Effect snow right at […]

I absolutely love the first few NFL playoff rounds for DFS. I predominantly will play the “main” slates that consist of all the games since I find that slate size to be ideal. It’s just small enough that we’ll get a handful of bad chalk options to leverage, yet large enough to also have some […]

It takes a special kind of crazy to be good at PGA DFS. It is perhaps the most volatile of all the major sports, there’s little correlation to take advantage of and we only get six roster spots for each lineup. Consequently, to gain an edge over our competition we have to be bold – […]

For years, the course fit model has been my biggest weapon in both DFS and betting. For example, last season it fueled over 200 units won on outright bets alone. The edge is strong, but why? To understand the power of the course fit model, you first must understand the difference between predictive analysis and […]

DVOA data does more than just tell us how good a team has been throughout the season. It tells us whose passing offense is improving and whose run defense is suddenly lacking. It allows us to project efficiency of both kinds for all offenses, and perhaps most important for DFS purposes, it allows us to […]

It takes a special kind of crazy to be good at PGA DFS. It is perhaps the most volatile of all the major sports, there’s little correlation to take advantage of and we only get six roster spots for each lineup. Consequently, to gain an edge over our competition we have to be bold – […]

For years, the course fit model has been my biggest weapon in both DFS and betting. For example, last season it fueled over 200 units won on outright bets alone. The edge is strong, but why? To understand the power of the course fit model, you first must understand the difference between predictive analysis and […]

The best ownership projections create a massive advantage in NFL DFS. If you’ve ever thought to yourself, “If I had known he’d be so popular, I never would have played him,” or the opposite, you already know this to be true.   We have exactly that – not just the industry’s most accurate ownership, but […]

DVOA data does more than just tell us how good a team has been throughout the season. It tells us whose passing offense is improving and whose run defense is suddenly lacking. It allows us to project efficiency of both kinds for all offenses, and perhaps most important for DFS purposes, it allows us to […]

DVOA data does more than just tell us how good a team has been throughout the season. It tells us whose passing offense is improving and whose run defense is suddenly lacking. It allows us to project efficiency of both kinds for all offenses, and perhaps most important for DFS purposes, it allows us to […]

The best ownership projections create a massive advantage in NFL DFS. If you’ve ever thought to yourself “If I had known he’d be so popular, I never would have played him,” or the opposite, you already know this to be true.    At FTN, we have exactly that – not just the industry’s most accurate ownership, […]

DVOA data does more than just tell us how good a team has been throughout the season. It tells us whose passing offense is improving and whose run defense is suddenly lacking. It allows us to project efficiency of both kinds for all offenses, and perhaps most important for DFS purposes, it allows us to […]

The best ownership projections create a massive advantage in NFL DFS. If you’ve ever thought to yourself “If I had known he’d be so popular, I never would have played him,” or the opposite, you already know this to be true.    At FTN, we have exactly that – not just the industry’s most accurate ownership, […]

DVOA data does more than just tell us how good a team has been throughout the season. It tells us whose passing offense is improving and whose run defense is suddenly lacking. It allows us to project efficiency of both kinds for all offenses, and perhaps most important for DFS purposes, it allows us to […]

NFL DFS is hard, but the Chalk Report makes it easier. At what positions should you fade the chalk vs play the chalk? What position should be in your flex? How chalky is too chalky? These are all important questions that we can answer on a macro scale with data. Consider this — to get […]

The best ownership projections create a massive advantage in NFL DFS. If you’ve ever thought to yourself “If I had known he’d be so popular, I never would have played him,” or the opposite, you already know this to be true.  At FTN, we have exactly that – not just the industry’s most accurate ownership, but […]

I royally messed up in Week 12. We have created such an advantage with our rostership projections, but I leaned into chalk I shouldn’t have. The goal for Week 13 is to continue to trust my instincts and analysis (like the DK Metcalf captain call for TNF), but to do so in a way that adds […]

Will the Eagles keep winning starts with how the Eagles keep winning – and the answer is … well, complicated. They have by no means dominated their opponents, culminating in a 15.6% DVOA for the season. This kind of DVOA gives them an outlook that falls well below the average expectation level for us Philadelphia […]

The best DFS ownership projections create a massive advantage in NFL DFS. If you have ever thought to yourself, “If I had known he would be so popular, I would have never played him,” or the opposite, you already know this to be true.    At FTN, we have exactly that – not just the industry’s most […]

There are two ways to gain an edge against the competition in NFL DFS – we can outpick the competition, and we can out-build the competition. To outpick the competition, we have to rely on the incredible and unique data that we have at FTN. To out-build the competition, we have the Chalk Report.   We […]

The best ownership projections create a massive advantage in NFL DFS. If you have ever thought to yourself, “If I had known he would be so popular, I would have never played him,” or the opposite, you already know this to be true.    At FTN, we have exactly that – not just the industry’s most accurate […]

There are two ways to gain an edge against the competition in NFL DFS — we can outpick the competition, and we can outbuild the competition. To outpick the competition, we have to rely on the incredible and unique data that we have at FTN. To outbuild the competition, we have the Chalk Report.    We […]

The best ownership projections create a massive advantage in NFL DFS. If you have ever thought to yourself “If I had known he would be so popular, I would have never played him,” or the opposite, you already know this to be true.    At FTN, we have exactly that — not just the industry’s most accurate […]

There are two ways to gain an edge against the competition in NFL DFS — we can outpick the competition, and we can outbuild the competition. To outpick the competition, we have to rely on the incredible and unique data that we have at FTN. To outbuild the competition, we have the Chalk Report.    We […]

There are two ways to gain an edge against the competition in NFL DFS — we can outpick the competition, and we can out-build the competition. To outpick the competition, we have to rely on the incredible and unique data that we have at FTN. To out-build the competition, we have the Chalk Report.    We […]

NFL teams talk often about peaking heading into the playoffs, but the truth is that they often show their true colors far earlier in the season. Now eight weeks in, we can compare teams’ last four weeks to their first four to get a great sense of who is surging into contention. There are five […]

There are two ways to gain an edge against the competition in NFL DFS — we can outpick the competition, and we can outbuild the competition. To outpick the competition, we have to rely on the incredible and unique data that we have at FTN. To outbuild the competition, we have the Chalk Report.    We […]

The Chalk Report is as it sounds — a comprehensive, ongoing study of how the most popular plays on the slate perform on a weekly basis. More specifically, we are searching for trends and patterns that can allow us to easily separate the good chalk from the bad, simultaneously showing us the best places to […]

There are two ways to gain an edge against the competition in NFL DFS – we can outpick the competition, and we can out-build the competition. To outpick the competition, we have to rely on the incredible and unique data that we have at FTN. To out-build the competition, we have the Chalk Report.    Week […]

The Chalk Report is as it sounds — a comprehensive, ongoing study of how the most popular plays on the slate perform on a weekly basis. More specifically, we are searching for trends and patterns that can allow us to easily separate the good chalk from the bad, simultaneously showing us the best places to […]