Week 12 NFL DFS Ownership Review

The best DFS ownership projections create a massive advantage in NFL DFS. If you have ever thought to yourself, “If I had known he would be so popular, I would have never played him,” or the opposite, you already know this to be true. 

At FTN, we have exactly that – not just the industry’s most accurate ownership, but ownership that can help you make key decisions on specific players each and every week.

A pattern has now emerged throughout the last month or so in a way that is undeniably powerful. When we believe a player will be significantly more popular than the rest of the industry believes, he’s a fade. Here’s a look at Week 12’s data.

Kansas City Chiefs DST

No matter where you consume most of your NFL content, I’m sure you’ve heard chalk is hitting like no other. This isn’t entirely true, regardless, but it’s especially untrue of DSTs. Just as I wrote last week, the industry is worse at projecting DST ownership than any other position, we keep identifying the actual chalk, and the chalk keeps failing.

Derrick Henry, RB, Tennessee Titans

I thought our 29% SE projection was aggressive at 2x the industry projection, but apparently it wasn’t aggressive enough! By no means did using Derrick Henry hurt you thanks to his two TDs, but it shouldn’t have been a surprise to you when the slate started, and he was as chalky as anyone on the slate.

Jaylen Warren, RB, Pittsburgh Steelers

I loved Jaylen Warren this week. I loved him so much that I played him even though I knew he would be significantly more popular than the rest of the industry thought. I paid for my overconfidence as Warren failed.

This is such a key point and gets to the heart of why the most accurate ownership projections are so crucial — I liked Warren so much this week that I stopped thinking about him probabilistically and viewed his success as a certainty. The fact of the matter is that no player is ever more than a roll of the dice, even when the metaphorical die is weighted such that they’re more likely to end on some sides than others.

“May the odds be ever in your favor” — Warren’s probability of success at 10% ownership would have made him a great play. His probability of success at 25% ownership likely made him a poor play.

Josh Downs, WR, Indianapolis Colts

Consider this — the industry aggregate ownership projection for Michael Pittman was over 20%, while it was under 15% for Josh Downs. How many of the near 25% of people who played Downs thought he was a strong leverage pivot off Pittman? They ended up almost exactly the same, 24.3% to 24.2%. 

Pittman was identified early in the week as a great play, and thus projected as one of the most popular receivers all week, and he ended up hitting. Downs became chalk in an effort to be contrarian. Both were 24%, but they were not the same kind of chalk.

At the start of the article, I mentioned that a pattern has emerged. The pattern is this — there are two types of chalk:

1. Chalk that the industry knows is chalk and wants to play it anyway
2. Chalk that the industry believes is sneaky or contrarian

Philosophically, it makes sense that the first type of chalk has a higher probability of success than the second. Over the past month or so, the data has undeniably supported this thought, and has done so in droves. The next time you hear the words “good chalk” or “bad chalk,” ask yourself which category the player falls into.