Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
The best ownership projections create a massive advantage in NFL DFS. If you have ever thought to yourself, “If I had known he would be so popular, I would have never played him,” or the opposite, you already know this to be true.
At FTN, we have exactly that – not just the industry’s most accurate ownership, but ownership that can help you make key decisions on specific players each and every week.
Week 11 brought some of our largest and most confident stances in ownership. We believed the industry was heavily over-projecting ownership on all of the Jaguars’ offensive players and wildly mis-projecting defensive ownership. Both turned out to be true, and both presented a clear path to GPP success.
Calvin Ridley and the Jaguars
Here’s what I posted in the NFL Discord:
In fact, the four players for whom our ownership was lowest in comparison to the industry were all Jaguars, Calvin Ridley, Travis Etienne and Christian Kirk. We were correct on all four.
Etienne:
- Industry: 14.1%
- FTN: 9.1%
- Actual: 6.2%
Engram:
- Industry: 17.0%
- FTN: 11.5%
- Actual: 10.1%
Kirk:
- Industry: 13.1%
- FTN: 8.6%
- Actual: 9.1%
Ridley:
Ridley was the only one who did well, but he was the single-most important player on the slate to get right. Our subscribers essentially had a one in four chance of landing on the most important player of the slate, and many were smart enough to pair him with our top-rated QB, Trevor Lawrence (32.2 DK points, 5.3% ownership).
We’ve turned the industry’s most accurate ownership projections into an actionable, clear-cut edge when building lineups.
New York Jets DST
This is the second time I’ve included a defense in this article, and for good reason! Once a proponent of eliminating DSTs from DFS, I now believe it’s a position that we can consistently beat the field on.
Yes, defensive scoring is random, but defensive ownership is not. As a whole, the industry seems to struggle more with defensive ownership than anything else. Last time it was the Giants, this week it was the Jets:
There’s nothing worse than accidentally playing into chalk and getting burned by a team or player you never would have used if you had known they were chalky. The Cowboys DST (21 DK points) was a must-have for me on Sunday’s livestream and made a world of difference.
