Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
Just when you thought you were out of the fantasy football season, we’re going to pull you back in. It’s time for the NFL playoffs, which means another month of fantasy before the offseason.
Postseason fantasy football is not a new idea, but it has been increasing in popularity over the last few years. At only a quarter of the length of the regular season, these leagues are a great way for those who are jonesing to get one more fantasy fix or a chance for redemption to rid that bad aftertaste of a losing season.
There are a variety of formats you can use in the NFL playoffs, but the three most-common are salary cap, one-and-done, and traditional draft-and-hold. Regardless of which your league uses, the idea remains the same – pick the players who are going to score the most points.
In draft-style leagues, this task is much easier in the regular season. Barring any injuries or suspensions, all players play the same number of games. But in the playoffs, as teams are eliminated, you lose their players. The key here is to draft not just quality players, but quality players on teams that have the best chance to play multiple games and hopefully advance to the Super Bowl.
To determine which teams you think will advance, I suggest drawing up a bracket and make your picks just as you would for the NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament. When mapping out your picks, remember that Vegas is your friend. Here are the current odds to win the Super Bowl at DraftKings Sportsbook:
- Kansas City Chiefs +350
- Buffalo Bills +400
- San Francisco 49ers +500
- Philadelphia Eagles +550
- Cincinnati Bengals +850
- Dallas Cowboys +1200
- Los Angeles Chargers +2000
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers +2800
- Baltimore Ravens +3500
- Minnesota Vikings +3500
- Jacksonville Jaguars +5000
- New York Giants +5500
- Miami Dolphins +6000
- Seattle Seahawks +7000
Two things should be obvious right away – 1) The Chiefs are the odds-on favorite to win the Super Bowl with Buffalo sitting just behind them as the clear No. 2 choice, and 2) The Buccaneers, Ravens, Vikings, Jaguars, Giants, Dolphins and Seahawks are long shots. The fact that there are so many longshots works against us this year, as there will be a lot of folks gunning for players on just a few teams: the Chiefs, Bills, 49ers, Eagles and Bengals. However, it is worth noting that Cincinnati advanced to the Super Bowl and were given +1600 odds to win before the playoffs started last year. So, we can’t rule out the Cowboys, Chargers or even some of the shorter-odds longshots.
Using Super Bowl odds helps, but we also need to utilize the conference winner odds. Here’s the AFC:
- Kansas City Chiefs +170
- Buffalo Bills +200
- Cincinnati Bengals +450
- Los Angeles Chargers +1000
- Baltimore Ravens +1800
- Jacksonville Jaguars +2000
- Miami Dolphins +3000
The top-seeded Chiefs come in with the shortest odds. At +170, they have a 37% chance of advancing to the Super Bowl. It’s hard to disagree after they’ve found their way to the big game in two of the last three years. But will be tough as both the Bills and Bengals have the offensive fire power to go toe-to-toe with anyone in the league. From there, the Chargers are an interesting dark horse candidate given Justin Herbert ascending presence.
Meanwhile, Baltimore worked their way into the playoffs thanks to great defensive play despite missing Lamar Jackson for a big chunk of the stretch run. All signs point to Jackson returning for the Wild Card round. As for Jacksonville, Trevor Lawrence came of age this season, but it may be a tick too early in his career to see him make a postseason run. It’s a great story that the Dolphins managed to get in, but having to face the Bills in the first round doesn’t give them much of a shot to get out of the first weekend of the postseason.
In the NFC, we have a similar distribution of the odds:
- Philadelphia Eagles +175
- San Francisco 49ers +180
- Dallas Cowboys +500
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers +1000
- Minnesota Vikings +1200
- New York Giants +2500
- Seattle Seahawks +3000
The No. 1 seed Eagles were installed as the odds-on favorites, but San Francisco is right there with them at the top of the board. At the other end of the spectrum, the Seahawks are the biggest underdogs. Given the odds, the 49ers and Cowboys are the best bets to give you at least two games with the potential to deliver four games of fantasy production. Getting four games from your players is one of the biggest factors in winning fantasy playoff leagues. If you’re looking for a dark horse in the NFC, both the Vikings and Giants are in play.
With all this information, you can now draw out your playoff brackets. Of course, the Vegas odds are typically very chalky, but you don’t need to follow them 100% of the time. Remember, it’s your draft, so draw up the brackets based on who you think will win. Here’s how I project the playoffs:
Wild Card Round
San Francisco defeats Seattle
The 49ers swept the season series with their most recent win over the Seahawks coming in mid-December. Their elite defense along with the more than serviceable play of Brock Purdy will be too much for Pete Carroll’s squad.
Jacksonville defeats LA Chargers
We’re a long way from Week 3 when the Jags took it to the Chargers in a 38-10 victory, but Trevor Lawrence’s play down the stretch bodes well for a home victory. A loss could also mean the end of Brandon Staley’s tenure as the Chargers’ head coach.
Buffalo defeats Miami
It’s a great story that the Dolphins got into the playoffs in Mike McDaniel’s inaugural season, but there’s just too much working against Miami here. Buffalo is a juggernaut that is playing inspired football. Meanwhile, we don’t even know who will be under center for the Dolphins.
NY Giants defeats Minnesota
Despite winning 13 games, the Vikings have a minus 3-point differential. To be fair, Minnesota did eek out a victory against New York on Christmas Eve, but their suspect defense will prove to be a liability against Saquon Barkley and Daniel Jones.
Cincinnati defeats Baltimore
Lamar Jackson should return for this contest, but his presence won’t be enough to revive an anemic Ravens offense. To be fair, Baltimore’s defense should at least keep them in this one, but ultimately the Bengals will prove to be too much.
Tampa Bay defeats Dallas
Yep, you read that right. We have our biggest upset of the Wild Card Round Monday night. Dallas is coming off an ugly outing in the season finale where they looked like a flat tire against the Commanders. Tom Brady notches another postseason win.
Divisional Round
Philadelphia defeats NY Giants
Unlike the Week 18 matchup between these two teams, the Giants will have their starts on the field for this one. However, the result remains the same. Philly marches on to the next round.
Kansas City defeats Jacksonville
The Jags were a mini-upset in the Wild Card Round, but Kansas City’s firepower led by the brilliance of Patrick Mahomes is just too much to overcome. Andy Reid’s squad heads to yet another conference championship game.
San Francisco defeats Tampa Bay
It’s tempting to give Tampa the upset win over a Brock Purdy-led 49ers squad, but it’s the San Francisco defense that helps propel them past the GOAT.
Buffalo defeats Cincinnati
We get a rematch of the Week 17 Monday night contest that will undoubtedly have a lasting impact on the NFL. Emotions will undoubtedly be high in this contest if it comes to fruition, but ultimately the Bills will prove to be too much for last year’s Super Bowl runner-up.
Conference Championship
Philadelphia defeats San Francisco
Two very good defenses square off in this one, so we’re going to give the edge to the team with the better offense. While San Francisco is loaded with studs, Jalen Hurts is simply in another class from rookie Brock Purdy.
Buffalo defeats Kansas City
The neutral site AFC Championship game seems destined to happen as these two teams have been on a collision course since last year’s epic Divisional Round game. This game will have a Super Bowl-esque feel to it and the Bills impressive season will continue on.
Super Bowl
Buffalo defeats Philadelphia
Sometimes the result of the Super Bowl impacts your fantasy draft decisions, but the losing team can still put up major fantasy points.
So, these results give use the following number of games for each team: Bills (4), 49ers (3), Eagles (3), Chiefs (2), Bengals (2), Buccaneers (2), Giants (2), Jaguars (2), Vikings (1), Cowboys (1), Chargers (1), Ravens (1), Seahawks (1), Dolphins (1)
While it’s very easy to simply leave things like this, I’d strong advise against it. Using full games, we’ll end up with a set of rankings that is heavily weighted toward the four- and three-game teams. And the reality is that the teams that we pick to lose don’t have a 0% chance to win.
Based on the projected spread for each game, we can calculate the team’s percentage change of winning. If you’d like to calculate the chance of winning, here’s the formula: 0.0319*x+0.5001, where “x” is the spread.
So given the numbers I ran in my model, these percentages can be converted to the following games played: Bills (2.92), 49ers (2.76), Eagles (2.27), Chiefs (2.24), Bengals (2.16), Buccaneers (1.87), Giants (1.75), Jaguars (1.70), Vikings (1.60), Cowboys (1.58), Chargers (1.53), Ravens (1.29), Seahawks (1.18), Dolphins (1.17). Using these game projections, we can now rank all the players for the playoffs. We’ll be using the following roster requirements: 2QB, 8FLEX, 2DST, 2K.
2023 NFL Postseason Fantasy Rankings
1. Josh Allen, BUF, QB1, 71.2 pts, 2.9 gms
2. Jalen Hurts, PHI, QB2, 58 pts, 2.3 gms
3. Patrick Mahomes, KC, QB3, 54 pts, 2.2 gms
4. Brock Purdy, SF, QB4, 53.1 pts, 2.8 gms
5. Christian McCaffrey, SF, RB1, 49.9 pts, 2.8 gms
6. Stefon Diggs, BUF, WR1, 48 pts, 2.9 gms
7. Joe Burrow, CIN, QB5, 47.1 pts, 2.2 gms
8. Ja’Marr Chase, CIN, WR2, 35.7 pts, 2.2 gms
9. Travis Kelce, KC, TE1, 33.8 pts, 2.2 gms
10. A.J. Brown, PHI, WR3, 33.6 pts, 2.3 gms
The top tier shows you just how important quarterbacks are in postseason fantasy football, with four of them in this group. The key to winning a postseason league is hitching your saddle to the right horse at quarterback and here we have the two best bets from both conferences.
11. Devin Singletary, BUF, RB2, 32.4 pts, 2.9 gms
12. Joe Mixon, CIN, RB3, 32.2 pts, 2.2 gms
13. George Kittle, SF, TE2, 31.4 pts, 2.8 gms
14. Daniel Jones, NYG, QB6, 31.2 pts, 1.7 gms
15. Deebo Samuel, SF, WR4, 30.6 pts, 2.8 gms
16. Jerick McKinnon, KC, RB4, 29 pts, 2.2 gms
17. Trevor Lawrence, JAX, QB7, 29 pts, 1.7 gms
18. Tom Brady, TB, QB8, 28.7 pts, 1.9 gms
19. Austin Ekeler, LAC, RB5, 28.7 pts, 1.5 gms
20. Brandon Aiyuk, SF, WR5, 28.6 pts, 2.8 gms
21. Gabe Davis, BUF, WR6, 28.3 pts, 2.9 gms
22. Justin Jefferson, MIN, WR7, 28.2 pts, 1.6 gms
23. DeVonta Smith, PHI, WR8, 27.8 pts, 2.3 gms
24. Saquon Barkley, NYG, RB6, 27.7 pts, 1.7 gms
25. Miles Sanders, PHI, RB7, 27 pts, 2.3 gms
Try to get the most bang for your buck in this range. While it’s wise to attack quarterback in the first round, there’s still value to be had after that point. You can still end up with Jones, Lawrence or Brady as late as the third round. And don’t forget that games played isn’t everything in these drafts. Even if you don’t think a team will play more than one game, players like Justin Jefferson still have the potential to out-score multigame players. And there’s always the chance you’re wrong on your game picks.
26. Kirk Cousins, MIN, QB9, 26.9 pts, 1.6 gms
27. Dak Prescott, DAL, QB10, 26.4 pts, 1.6 gms
28. Dawson Knox, BUF, TE3, 26 pts, 2.9 gms
29. Justin Herbert, LAC, QB11, 25.1 pts, 1.5 gms
30. Lamar Jackson, BAL, QB12, 24.9 pts, 1.3 gms
31. Tee Higgins, CIN, WR9, 24.5 pts, 2.2 gms
32. Leonard Fournette, TB, RB8, 24 pts, 1.9 gms
33. James Cook, BUF, RB9, 23.9 pts, 2.9 gms
34. San Francisco 49ers, SF, DST1, 23.8 pts, 2.8 gms
35. Buffalo Bills, BUF, DST2, 23.3 pts, 2.9 gms
36. Mike Evans, TB, WR10, 23.3 pts, 1.9 gms
37. Elijah Mitchell, SF, RB10, 23.2 pts, 2.8 gms
38. CeeDee Lamb, DAL, WR11, 23 pts, 1.6 gms
39. Tony Pollard, DAL, RB11, 22.6 pts, 1.6 gms
40. Tyler Bass, BUF, K1, 22.6 pts, 2.9 gms
41. Chris Godwin, TB, WR12, 21.6 pts, 1.9 gms
42. Isiah Pacheco, KC, RB12, 21.6 pts, 2.2 gms
43. Dallas Goedert, PHI, TE4, 21.5 pts, 2.3 gms
If you didn’t grab your second quarterback earlier in the draft, this is essentially the point of no return. Cousins, Herbert and Jackson don’t necessarily give you good shot at two games played, but all three offer plenty of bang for your buck if they do manage to advance past the Wild Card Round. You’ll also notice the first defenses and kickers appear in this range of rankings. If this was a season-long league, it would be utterly insane to draft those positions this early. However, in postseason leagues, it’s extremely valuable to have players at any position who play multiple games.
44. Robbie Gould, SF, K2, 20.8 pts, 2.8 gms
45. Geno Smith, SEA, QB13, 20.8 pts, 1.2 gms
46. Tua Tagovailoa, MIA, QB14, 20.5 pts, 1.2 gms
47. Dalvin Cook, MIN, RB13, 20.4 pts, 1.6 gms
48. JuJu Smith-Schuster, KC, WR13, 20.3 pts, 2.2 gms
49. Christian Kirk, JAX, WR14, 20 pts, 1.7 gms
50. Keenan Allen, LAC, WR15, 19.9 pts, 1.5 gms
51. Tyreek Hill, MIA, WR16, 19.3 pts, 1.2 gms
52. Ezekiel Elliott, DAL, RB14, 18.7 pts, 1.6 gms
53. Tyler Boyd, CIN, WR17, 18.3 pts, 2.2 gms
54. Philadelphia Eagles, PHI, DST3, 18.2 pts, 2.3 gms
55. Rachaad White, TB, RB15, 18.1 pts, 1.9 gms
56. Travis Etienne, JAX, RB16, 17.9 pts, 1.7 gms
57. T.J. Hockenson, MIN, TE5, 17.5 pts, 1.6 gms
58. Mike Williams, LAC, WR18, 17.1 pts, 1.5 gms
59. Samaje Perine, CIN, RB17, 16.7 pts, 2.2 gms
60. Zay Jones, JAX, WR19, 16.5 pts, 1.7 gms
61. Isaiah McKenzie, BUF, WR20, 16.3 pts, 2.9 gms
Depending on your roster requirements, you may have to prioritize tight end early in your drafts. I don’t recommend going that route and instead suggest having flex spots for your running backs, wideouts and tight ends. This is also the section of the draft where you’ll start to see a lot of onesie players hanging on the board. Be careful to not draft too many of these guys. Instead, it’s wise to load up on the teams you’re prioritizing. That means you can certainly draft a player from one of those teams even if there are several other higher-ranked players still on the board.
62. Harrison Butker, KC, K3, 15.9 pts, 2.2 gms
63. Jake Elliott, PHI, K4, 15.5 pts, 2.3 gms
64. Jaylen Waddle, MIA, WR21, 15.3 pts, 1.2 gms
65. Evan McPherson, CIN, K5, 15.2 pts, 2.2 gms
66. Kenneth Walker, SEA, RB18, 14.9 pts, 1.2 gms
67. Isaiah Hodgins, NYG, WR22, 14.9 pts, 1.7 gms
68. Richie James, NYG, WR23, 14.9 pts, 1.7 gms
69. Jeff Wilson, MIA, RB19, 14.6 pts, 1.2 gms
70. Tyler Lockett, SEA, WR24, 14.6 pts, 1.2 gms
71. Kansas City Chiefs, KC, DST4, 14.3 pts, 2.2 gms
72. Dallas Cowboys, DAL, DST5, 14.2 pts, 1.6 gms
73. Russell Gage, TB, WR25, 14.1 pts, 1.9 gms
74. Evan Engram, JAX, TE6, 13.9 pts, 1.7 gms
75. Brett Maher, DAL, K6, 13.5 pts, 1.6 gms
76. Graham Gano, NYG, K7, 13.3 pts, 1.7 gms
77. Adam Thielen, MIN, WR26, 13.3 pts, 1.6 gms
78. Cincinnati Bengals, CIN, DST6, 13.2 pts, 2.2 gms
79. Hayden Hurst, CIN, TE7, 13.2 pts, 2.2 gms
80. Ryan Succop, TB, K8, 13.1 pts, 1.9 gms
81. Mark Andrews, BAL, TE8, 13.1 pts, 1.3 gms
82. Marquez Valdes-Scantling, KC, WR27, 12.9 pts, 2.2 gms
83. DK Metcalf, SEA, WR28, 12.8 pts, 1.2 gms
84. Kadarius Toney, KC, WR29, 12.7 pts, 2.2 gms
85. Joshua Palmer, LAC, WR30, 12.6 pts, 1.5 gms
86. J.K. Dobbins, BAL, RB20, 12.6 pts, 1.3 gms
87. Jacksonville Jaguars, JAX, DST7, 12.5 pts, 1.7 gms
88. Riley Patterson, JAX, K9, 12.5 pts, 1.7 gms
89. Jauan Jennings, SF, WR31, 12.4 pts, 2.8 gms
90. Quez Watkins, PHI, WR32, 12.3 pts, 2.3 gms
91. Dalton Schultz, DAL, TE9, 12.2 pts, 1.6 gms
92. K.J. Osborn, MIN, WR33, 12 pts, 1.6 gms
Unlike in regular season leagues, you don’t want to wait to grab your kicker and defense. Again, you’ll want to lean heavily on your bracket picks and draft the kickers and defenses you project play the most games. Tyler Bass and Robbie Gould will likely be the first kickers off the board with the Bills and 49erss defenses likely being picked in the same range. But there will still be plenty of defenses and kickers to choose from in this part of the draft.
From this point forward continue to load up on the teams you think will go the furthest, and don’t be bashful. This means picking guys deep down the depth chart. So, for example, players like Jauan Jennings and even Ray-Ray McCloud are very intriguing in the later rounds if you happened to load up on the 49ers.
93. Cameron Dicker, LAC, K10, 11.9 pts, 1.5 gms
94. Darius Slayton, NYG, WR34, 11.7 pts, 1.7 gms
95. Justin Tucker, BAL, K11, 11.3 pts, 1.3 gms
96. Greg Joseph, MIN, K12, 11.2 pts, 1.6 gms
97. Trenton Irwin, CIN, WR35, 10.4 pts, 2.2 gms
98. Gerald Everett, LAC, TE10, 10.4 pts, 1.5 gms
99. Tampa Bay Buccaneers, TB, DST8, 10.3 pts, 1.9 gms
100. Julio Jones, TB, WR36, 10.2 pts, 1.9 gms
101. Jason Myers, SEA, K13, 10 pts, 1.2 gms
102. New York Giants, NYG, DST9, 9.9 pts, 1.7 gms
103. Michael Gallup, DAL, WR37, 9.7 pts, 1.6 gms
104. Marvin Jones, JAX, WR38, 9.4 pts, 1.7 gms
105. Cade Otton, TB, TE11, 9.4 pts, 1.9 gms
106. Ray-Ray McCloud, SF, WR39, 9.3 pts, 2.8 gms
107. Baltimore Ravens, BAL, DST10, 9.2 pts, 1.3 gms
108. Noah Brown, DAL, WR40, 9 pts, 1.6 gms
109. Minnesota Vikings, MIN, DST11, 8.9 pts, 1.6 gms
110. Demarcus Robinson, BAL, WR41, 8.6 pts, 1.3 gms
111. Los Angeles Chargers, LAC, DST12, 8.5 pts, 1.5 gms
112. Gus Edwards, BAL, RB21, 8.3 pts, 1.3 gms
113. Jason Sanders, MIA, K14, 8.3 pts, 1.2 gms
114. Daniel Bellinger, NYG, TE12, 8.1 pts, 1.7 gms
115. Raheem Mostert, MIA, RB22, 8 pts, 1.2 gms
116. Joshua Kelley, LAC, RB23, 8 pts, 1.5 gms
117. Jamal Agnew, JAX, WR42, 7.6 pts, 1.7 gms
118. Noah Gray, KC, TE13, 7.6 pts, 2.2 gms
119. Seattle Seahawks, SEA, DST13, 7.3 pts, 1.2 gms
120. DeAndre Carter, LAC, WR43, 7.2 pts, 1.5 gms
121. Noah Fant, SEA, TE14, 6.8 pts, 1.2 gms
122. Miami Dolphins, MIA, DST14, 6.6 pts, 1.2 gms
123. Isaiah Likely, BAL, TE15, 6 pts, 1.3 gms
124. Sammy Watkins, BAL, WR44, 5.8 pts, 1.3 gms
125. Mike Gesicki, MIA, TE16, 5.6 pts, 1.2 gms
126. Skyy Moore, KC, WR45, 5.5 pts, 2.2 gms
127. Justin Watson, KC, WR46, 5.5 pts, 2.2 gms
128. Trent Sherfield, MIA, WR47, 5.5 pts, 1.2 gms
129. Donald Parham, LAC, TE17, 4.9 pts, 1.5 gms
130. River Cracraft, MIA, WR48, 4.6 pts, 1.2 gms
131. Cole Beasley, BUF, WR49, 4.1 pts, 2.9 gms
132. T.Y. Hilton, DAL, WR50, 3.6 pts, 1.6 gms
133. Zach Pascal, PHI, WR51, 3.4 pts, 2.3 gms
134. Jalen Reagor, MIN, WR52, 2.9 pts, 1.6 gms
