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Week 12 Quick Reads: Remaining Schedules

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Before we got into the best and worst players of Week 12, I thought it would be fun to take a look at the remaining schedule strength for players. This should particularly be a help for fantasy football purposes. With that in mind, I looked at average defensive DVOA of opponents in Weeks 13-17, leaving out Week 18. I also looked at weighted DVOA instead of regular DVOA to try to account for improving units such as Denver’s defense.

Speaking of Denver, you may want to pick up Russell Wilson for your fantasy playoffs. The Broncos not only have the easiest remaining schedule of opposing pass defenses but also a difficult schedule of opposing run defenses, suggesting that the schedule will funnel passes towards Wilson, Courtland Sutton, and Jerry Jeudy. The Broncos’ opponents in Weeks 13-17 include the Chargers twice (25th in pass defense), the Texans (26th), the Patriots (24th), and the Lions (13th, but declining in recent weeks).

The Chargers also have an easy schedule of opposing defenses coming up, both against the run and the pass. I’ll put a little bit of an asterisk on that, however, because it includes two games against Denver, and even using weighted DVOA instead of regular DVOA may not fully account for the way the Broncos have dramatically turned around on defense since Week 6.

The hardest remaining schedule of pass defenses belongs to Cincinnati, where all five opponents in Weeks 13-17 are in the top 10 of pass defense DVOA. Not like you were taking Jake Browning in your fantasy league, of course. Washington and Jacksonville also have harder schedules against the pass.

The hradest remaining schedule against the run belongs to Miami, so Raheem Mostert and De’Von Achane may not perform for you in the fantasy playoffs the way they did early on. The Dolphins still have to play Washington (12th), Tennessee (2nd), the Jets (17th but stronger for fantasy purposes), Dallas (9th), and Baltimore (6th).

Here’s the full table for Weeks 13-17. Remember that passing is generally better than rushing, which is why the numbers for pass schedule are much higher than the numbers for run schedule. Numbers go from hardest schedule (1) to easiest schedule (32).

Remaining Schedule Weeks 13-17 by Average Defensive DVOA of Opponents
TEAM PASS RK RUN RK
CIN -5.9% 1 -8.9% 9
WAS -4.0% 2 -4.6% 24
JAX -3.0% 3 -5.7% 20
BAL -1.6% 4 -7.1% 16
LV -1.4% 5 -4.0% 25
LAR -0.7% 6 -7.2% 15
BUF 0.5% 7 -6.8% 17
SEA 0.9% 8 -11.2% 2
ARI 1.0% 9 -9.8% 5
MIA 1.6% 10 -12.1% 1
GB 2.1% 11 -3.5% 27
NE 2.6% 12 -2.9% 29
PHI 2.8% 13 -2.9% 30
HOU 3.4% 14 -9.0% 6
CLE 3.5% 15 -11.2% 3
DET 3.7% 16 -7.3% 13
TEAM PASS RK RUN RK
ATL 4.1% 17 -5.4% 23
NYG 6.0% 18 -5.5% 22
CHI 6.1% 19 -7.3% 14
MIN 6.8% 20 -3.8% 26
TB 7.1% 21 -5.6% 21
DAL 7.4% 22 -9.0% 7
CAR 7.4% 23 -8.9% 8
TEN 7.9% 24 -7.3% 12
KC 8.5% 25 -5.8% 19
SF 8.7% 26 -7.5% 11
NO 8.8% 27 -3.3% 28
PIT 9.1% 28 -2.4% 31
NYJ 9.2% 29 -10.4% 4
IND 9.6% 30 -6.6% 18
LAC 10.1% 31 -2.3% 32
DEN 12.8% 32 -8.3% 10

Now, here’s a look at the best and worst players of Week 12 by DYAR.

Quarterbacks
Rk Player Team CP/AT Yds TD INT Sacks Total
DYAR
Pass
DYAR
Rush
DYAR
Opp
1. Jordan Love GB 22/32 268 3 0 0 162 149 13 DET
Love led all quarterbacks with 78 passing DYAR in the red zone this week, completing all five of his passes for 49 yards and three touchdowns.
2. Dak Prescott DAL 22/32 331 4 0 0 158 153 6 WAS
Prescott’s passing value drops from 201 YAR to 153 DYAR because of the Washington pass defense. Prescott led NFL quarterbacks with an average depth of target of 14.7 yards this week. Nobody else was above 11 yards.
3. Patrick Mahomes KC 27/34 298 2 0 1 153 159 -7 LV
Mahomes’ average depth of target of 4.9 yards was the fourth lowest of the week, behind Bailey Zappe, Tommy DeVito, and the quarterback he was up against, Aidan O’Connell (whose aDOT was 4.8 yards). Mahomes had -8 passing DYAR in the first quarter, then earned 167 passing DYAR the rest of the way.
4. Aidan O’Connell LV 23/33 248 1 0 1 134 134 0 KC
O’Connell was awesome on third downs, completing 9 of 12 passes with five first downs and a touchdown. (He also took one sack.) O’Connell had 100 passing DYAR on third downs compared to 34 passing DYAR the rest of the time.
5. Josh Allen BUF 30/51 339 2 1 1 123 65 58 PHI
Allen had four carries on third down, all of which converted for a new set of downs or a touchdown, and then also converted a fourth-and-1 on the Philadelphia 47 with an early sneak. He ended up with 82 rushing yards and two touchdowns. This is tied with a 2014 Russell Wilson game against the Rams as the No. 8 best rushing game by a quarterback in my database (since 1981).
6. Russell Wilson DEN 13/22 134 1 0 1 123 117 5 CLE
Wilson’s passing value is boosted from 55 YAR to 117 DYAR because of the Cleveland pass defense. Wilson completed all six attempts on third down with three first downs and a touchdown, plus a 34-yard DPI gain early in the first quarter on third-and-10.
7. C.J. Stroud HOU 26/36 304 2 0 4 111 85 26 JAX
Stroud had six scrambles for a total of 47 yards including a 1-yard touchdown. He led all quarterbacks with 134 passing DYAR on passes over the middle of the field this week.
8. Trevor Lawrence JAX 23/38 364 1 1 0 96 87 9 HOU
Lawrence’s passing value drops from 132 YAR to 87 DYAR because of the Houston pass defense. Lawrence benefited from a league-high average of 9.1 yards after the catch this week.
9. Kenny Pickett PIT 24/33 278 0 0 2 89 91 -2 CIN
With new Pittsburgh offensive coordinator Eddie Faulker, the Steelers discovered the middle of the field! Pickett was second in the league with 75 DYAR on passes to the middle this week.
10. Matthew Stafford LAR 25/33 229 4 1 0 86 89 -3 ARI
11. Will Levis TEN 18/27 185 0 0 1 68 68 0 CAR
Titans receivers averaged a league-low 2.3 yards after the catch this week.
12. Jalen Hurts PHI 18/31 200 3 1 2 65 53 13 BUF
Hurst had -87 passing DYAR in the first half of this game, then 120 passing DYAR in the second half and 19 passing DYAR in overtime.
Rk Player Team CP/AT Yds TD INT Sacks Total
DYAR
Pass
DYAR
Rush
DYAR
Opp
13. Sam Howell WAS 28/44 300 0 1 4 63 47 16 DAL
Howell’s passing value is boosted from -9 YAR to 47 DYAR because of the Dallas pass defense.
14. Jared Goff DET 30/44 332 2 0 3 61 84 -23 GB
Goff gained just 9 yards on three scrambles including a lost fumble on third-and-5.
15. Justin Herbert LAC 30/44 217 1 1 3 42 29 13 BAL
Herbert’s passing value is boosted from -45 YAR to 29 DYAR because of the Baltimore pass defense.
16. Tua Tagovailoa MIA 21/29 243 1 2 2 21 39 -19 NYJ
17. Brock Purdy SF 21/30 209 1 1 1 20 22 -2 SEA
Surprisingly, Purdy had -40 passing DYAR on passes over the middle this week. The Seahawks defense was previously weak there but they allowed Purdy only two conversions on 10 passes. There were a few failed completions and an interception.
18. Gardner Minshew IND 24/41 251 0 1 2 12 3 9 TB
19. Derek Carr NO 24/38 304 0 1 1 0 11 -11 ATL
Carr was worth -97 passing DYAR in the red zone, with just two completions on five attempts, no touchdowns, a pick-six and an 8-yard sack.
20. Jake Browning CIN 19/26 227 1 1 4 -20 -22 2 PIT
21. Desmond Ridder ATL 13/21 168 1 2 0 -20 -15 -5 NO
Ridder had -54 passing DYAR including both of his interceptions on first downs.
MNF Justin Fields CHI 27/37 217 0 0 3 -22 -31 10 MIN
22. Dorian Thompson-Robinson CLE 14/29 134 1 0 0 -27 -9 -18 DEN
Cleveland receivers averaged just 2.5 yards after the catch this week.
Rk Player Team CP/AT Yds TD INT Sacks Total
DYAR
Pass
DYAR
Rush
DYAR
Opp
23. Baker Mayfield TB 20/30 199 2 1 6 -30 -10 -21 IND
Mayfield completed just 7 of 11 passes on first down with a goal-line touchdown, an interception, and two sacks. He had a net average of just 2.7 yards on first downs.
24. Tommy DeVito NYG 17/25 191 1 0 6 -36 -5 -32 NE
DeVito loses significant rushing value thanks to a loss of 1 on a left-end keeper, a fumble on a scramble, and an aborted snap turned over to the Patriots.
25. Kyler Murray ARI 27/45 256 1 0 4 -38 -45 7 LAR
26. Lamar Jackson BAL 19/32 177 1 0 2 -40 -37 -4 LAC
27. Bryce Young CAR 18/31 194 0 0 4 -58 -71 13 TEN
28. Geno Smith SEA 18/27 180 0 1 6 -58 -54 -5 SF
29. Bailey Zappe NE 9/14 54 0 1 1 -64 -64 0 NYG
30. P.J. Walker CLE 6/13 56 0 0 4 -112 -112 0 DEN
31. Mac Jones NE 12/21 89 0 2 1 -125 -125 0 NYG
Jones’ 2023 follies on deep passes continued, as he threw only two passes with more than 15 air yards and one of them was intercepted.
32. Tim Boyle NYJ 27/38 179 1 2 7 -187 -172 -15 MIA
In the first three quarters, Boyle had 14 pass plays and -65 passing DYAR. In the fourth quarter, Boyle had 31 pass plays and -108 passing DYAR.
MNF Joshua Dobbs MIN 23/32 185 1 4 2 -191 -194 4 CHI
Five Best Running Backs by DYAR (Total)
Rk Player Team Runs Rush
Yds
Rush
TD
Rec Rec
Yds
Rec
TD
Total
DYAR
Rush
DYAR
Rec
DYAR
Opp
1. Kyren Williams LAR 16 143 0 6/6 61 2 90 35 55 ARI
Williams moved the sticks four times as a receiver, including one gain with 31 yards after the catch and another with 20. He also had a 69% success rate on the ground with six first downs and gains of 56 and 24 yards, with no runs tackled for a loss.
2. Jonathan Taylor IND 15 91 2 0/0 0 0 67 67 0 TB
Taylor goes from 50 rushing YAR to 67 DYAR becaues of the quality of the Tampa Bay run defense. He had an 73% success rate on his carries, although his only carry on third down was a 12-yarder on third-and-23.
3. Christian McCaffrey SF 19 114 2 5/6 25 0 56 55 2 SEA
McCaffrey had six first downs to go with two touchdowns on the ground, plus another as a receiver. He only lost yardage or was stuffed on one run.
4. Keaton Mitchell BAL 9 64 0 2/2 25 0 42 25 17 LAC
Has Mitchell taken over as the main running back for Baltimore? He was on the field for 46% of snaps compared to 28% for Justice Hill and only 27% for Gus Edwards.
5. Isiah Pacheco KC 15 55 2 5/5 34 0 40 25 15 LV
All of Pacheco’s gains fell between 1 yard and 8 yards with no stuffs or double-digit runs. He had two 1-yard touchdowns.
Five Best Running Backs by DYAR (Rushing)
Rk Player Team Runs Rush
Yds
Rush
TD
Rec Rec
Yds
Rec
TD
Total
DYAR
Rush
DYAR
Rec
DYAR
Opp
1. Jonathan Taylor IND 15 91 2 0/0 0 0 67 67 0 TB
2. Christian McCaffrey SF 19 114 2 5/6 25 0 56 55 2 SEA
3. Samaje Perine DEN 7 55 1 1/1 11 0 39 36 3 CLE
Perine had a 3-yard loss but otherwise his carries each gained at least 3 yards with a 24-yarder and a 15-yarder.
4. Kyren Williams LAR 16 143 0 6/6 61 2 90 35 55 ARI
5. Raheem Mostert MIA 20 94 2 0/1 0 0 30 35 -5 NYJ
The New York Jets run defense moves Mostert from 18 rushing YAR to 35 rushing DYAR.
Worst Running Back by DYAR (Total and Rushing)
Rk Player Team Runs Rush
Yds
Rush
TD
Rec Rec
Yds
Rec
TD
Total
DYAR
Rush
DYAR
Rec
DYAR
Opp
1. Jaylen Warren PIT 13 49 0 3/3 13 0 -34 -29 -5 CIN
Warren is mainly in last place because of a lost fumble on third-and-2 and opponent adjustments for playing a poor Bengals run defense. However, he also had just one first down on 13 carries. He had two on just three receptions along with a reception for a loss of 5 yards.
Five Best Wide Receivers and Tight Ends by DYAR
Rk Player Team Rec Att Yds Avg TD Total
DYAR
Opp
1. Jaylen Waddle MIA 8 8 114 14.2 0 68 NYJ
Waddle had six first downs plus gains of 8 and 9 yards. He converted three passes on third down into a new set of downs. He also gets a bit of a bump for facing the Jets pass defense.
2. DeVonta Smith PHI 7 8 106 15.1 1 59 BUF
Smith moved the chains six times, including a touchdown. All of his targets came on second or third downs. His one incomplete target went 48 air yards.
3. Kalif Raymond DET 5 5 90 18.0 0 55 GB
Worcester represent! The pride of Holy Cross had 48 receiving DYAR and added rushing value with a 6-yard carry on second-and-7. All five of his receptions gained first downs, with three of 20 or more yards.
4. Jakobi Meyers LV 6 7 79 13.2 1 53 KC
As the legendary Bob Lobel of Boston’s WBZ would say, “why can’t we find players like that?”
5. Jalin Hyatt NYG 5 6 109 21.8 0 48 NE
The rookie wide receiver had his best game by far, with four first downs and three gains of more than 20 yards apiece. He converted a third-and-8 (with a 1-yard pass he took for 11 yards after the catch) and a third-and-16 (with a 41-yard bomb).
Worst Wide Receiver or Tight End by DYAR
Rk Player Team Rec Att Yds Avg TD Total
DYAR
Opp
1. Elijah Moore CLE 3 9 44 14.7 0 -57 DEN

Moore gets -24 rushing DYAR for the fourth-quarter blown reverse to Pierre Strong that was fumbled and recovered by Denver. As a receiver, he had just one first down or gain of more than 10 yards, a 26-yard grab on first-and-10 later in the fourth quarter.

The worst receiver by DYAR without considering rushing was Josh Downs of Indianapolis, who had -46 DYAR for catching 5 of 13 passes for 43 yards. He caught only 1 of 5 passes on third or fourth down.

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