Week 3 NFL Picks, Predictions & Best Bets | NFL Picks Against the Spread | NFL Props | Survivor
Chris Meaney
We’re down to the final few weeks of the NBA regular season, and just about every DFS slate carries a massive amount of playoff implications. On Thursday’s NBA DFS slate, we have seven total games with plenty of play-in tournament implications, back-to-backs, and injury news to monitor.
As always, the game-by-game breakdown will provide a brief overview of each and every game on the slate, highlighting players that stand out. This doesn’t, however, mean that every player will be touched on. If a player is excluded from the breakdown, that simply means that they didn’t stand out as one that necessarily needs to be in your player pool. Again, this is the first look. Things will change given news throughout the day, but I will do my best to prime you for all of the hypotheticals that we can forecast.
Vegas data at the time of writing listed is the consensus odds from the FTN NBA Odds Tracker.
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Bulls at Hornets preview
CHI -2.5, total: 217.5
Both these teams have something to play for, as the Bulls currently sit 3.5 games out of the play-in tournament, while the Hornets are right in the thick of it (currently the No. 8 seed). While the Bulls’ hopes are dwindling, Zach LaVine is expected to make his return Thursday. Given the fact he was not sidelined with an injury, we should see a full allotment of minutes. While he helps the Bulls chances a bit, he’s still priced above $9,000 on both FanDuel and DraftKings, making him a bit hard to stomach with the presence of Nikola Vucevic. Speaking of Vucevic, he should be able to exploit the undersized frontcourt of the Hornets with P.J. Washington starting at the five, giving him some tournament appeal. LaVine’s return, however, spells my interest in Coby White given the fact that he likely moves back to the bench.
Despite posting over 40 fantasy points last game, LaMelo Ball’s price is still under $8,000 on both sites. In his three games since returning to the lineup, he’s averaged 1.36 DKP/min with a team-high 28.2% usage rate and 32.8% assist rate. He’s an elite play in all formats. Outside of Ball, I have an interest in both Jaden McDaniels and P.J. Washington with Miles Bridges out. Washington should see a slight uptick in volume and rebounding while Bridges’ absence opens up more minutes for McDaniels. We could also see Caleb Martin draw another start, which would make him a viable value play at $3,900 on DraftKings after a massive game Tuesday.
Malik Monk also makes sense as a value option and while he showcased his floor last game, he still carries a massive ceiling with so many offensive weapons out, making him an ideal tournament target.
Nets at Mavericks preview
BKN -4, total: 234
Once again, both Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving are priced below $10,000 on DraftKings. While they finally priced Durant ahead of Irving, he’s still roughly $1,000 too cheap given his form. Over his last five games, he’s averaged 33.2 points, 7.6 rebounds, 5.2 assists and 2.4 stocks in 35.5 minutes per game. He’s still my 1A on this team compared to Irving’s 1B. The latter is a viable pivot for the sake of ownership, but it’s worth mentioning that Dallas has been a good defensive unit, specifically against point guards, as the season has progressed.
With no other injuries to report for the Nets, it’s hard for me to get excited about any ancillary pieces considering how deep they are. DeAndre Jordan should see a healthy number of minutes given the size of Dallas’ frontcourt, so he would, by default, be the option that I look to at only $4,000.
Dallas is another team in the thick of the playoff race (currently fifth in the West), meaning every game counts. With this being such an exploitable matchup, it’s hard not to love Luka Doncic on this slate. The absence of Kristaps Porzingis should certainly help from a volume perspective, but it’s worth noting that his fantasy points per game (on both DraftKings and FanDuel) actually goes down in 22 games without Porzingis this season compared to the 37 with him active. Still, the matchup alone makes me think this is nothing to worry about and that we could have a Doncic ceiling game on the horizon.
Because of the matchup, I have no problem getting to Tim Hardaway at $5,200 on DraftKings, especially considering that he’s shot 50% or better in three straight games with two of those games going for 49 or more DraftKings points. With Porzingis as well as Maxi Kleber out, this makes Dwight Powell a viable punt and puts us on Boban watch. If Boban Marjanovic draws the start, he’d essentially be an auto-play at center given his insane per-minute production rates.
Wizards at Raptors preview
TOR -2.5, total: 235
The reason Doncic is not a must-play for me on this slate is because of the presence of Russell Westbrook, who’s now topped 80 DraftKings points in back-to-back games and 70 in three straight. The form he’s in is virtually unfadeable and this matchup is an enticing one, even on the second leg of a back-to-back. With both teams needing to win here, I don’t see Westbrook getting anything less than a full allotment of minutes at a still-underpriced $11,000. He’s the top overall play on the slate once again and his ownership will likely reflect that.
If fading Westbrook, Bradley Beal is also in great form and on top of the Wizards needing to win, he’s still chasing the scoring title. For $9,300, he offers a stable floor and a respectable ceiling. Davis Bertans is the other Wizards option that I have an interest in, as $3,600 is flat-out too cheap with Rui Hachimura out. He may not draw the start, but he’s seen 26 or more minutes in three straight games and has a massive ceiling from a three-pointer perspective.
With the Raptors being three games back of the Wizards for the play-in tournament, a win here would knock a full game off of the standings, giving this one major standings implications for Toronto. With so much on the line, it’s hard to not look toward their big three in Kyle Lowry, Fred VanVleet and Pascal Siakam. Assuming all are active, they all make for elite options with my order of preference being the exact order that they’re listed above, which also happens to be the inverse order of their prices.
Khem Birch is the other piece here worth mentioning. Not only have centers against the Wizards been a staple in DFS for the last few seasons, but he’s also filled in admirably for the injured Chris Boucher. He’s seen 30 or more minutes in five consecutive games, topping 35 DraftKings points in three of the five and pulling down at least eight rebounds in all five games, while scoring in double figures in four of the five. His $5,400 price tag is more than reasonable given his upside.
Grizzlies at Pistons preview
MEM -9.5, total: 220.5
The Pistons continue to operate in full tank mode, as Jerami Grant, Josh Jackson, Mason Plumlee, Cory Joseph, Dennis Smith, Rodney McGruder and Hamidou Diallo have all been ruled out. This should give the Pistons an eight-man rotation at most, making it hard to avoid getting some exposure here.
I know Isaiah Stewart has been disappointing lately, but the Grizzlies have been bleeding production to centers as of late, making this a prime bounce-back spot for Stewart. While he’s not a must-play at $6,500, his ceiling is still much higher than just about anyone else in his price range. The guards are all viable here as well, as Killian Hayes, Frank Jackson and Saben Lee should soak up the majority of the backcourt minutes with Saddiq Bey occasionally picking up some backcourt minutes as well. Of the four, Bey is my favorite given his ceiling, but Jackson is a close second with Lee carrying elite per-dollar upside at only $3,400.
The Grizzlies are in a great spot here, but the two major factors working against them are the potential blowout and this being the second leg of a back-to-back. Because of this, the entire team is best left for GPPs. Ja Morant and Jonas Valanciunas obviously carry the most upside, but Kyle Anderson has quietly topped 30 fantasy points in four consecutive games while remaining underpriced.
Grayson Allen also suffered an abdominal injury and failed to return to the game Wednesday, putting his status for this game in serious jeopardy. In his absence, De'Anthony Melton would become an elite value option in tournaments with Desmond Bane being the more cash-centered beneficiary.
Hawks at Pacers preview
ATL -5, total: 239.5
These are two more teams that find themselves both in the thick of the playoff hunt as well as on the second leg of a back-to-back.
Malcolm Brogdon sat out once again for the Pacers Wednesday. If he’s out again, it’s getting rather straightforward as to how this team breaks down. Domantas Sabonis has posted two games north of 70 fantasy points over his last three games and while this is certainly not an easy matchup, his role alone without Brogdon would be more than enough for him to warrant serious consideration. Caris LeVert would also be appealing here, and his individual matchup would be a bit more exploitable than that of Sabonis in the paint.
If Edmond Sumner and Jeremy Lamb sit out again, we could see Aaron Holiday and Justin Holiday pick up more meaningful minutes, making them both viable value options. TJ McConnell would also be a viable play if Brogdon is out, as he presents the most upside of any bench player on the team.
Whether Brogdon plays or not, this is an Indiana defense to attack, and the Hawks present us with a plethora of ways to do so. Trae Young is the obvious choice here and makes for an elite GPP play, but with other spend-ups at point guard, I can’t get here in a single-entry lineup. Instead, I would rather get a low-owned Clint Capela against Sabonis and Goga Bitadze in the paint. The absence of Myles Turner should allow Capela to absolutely feast on the glass and Sabonis on the other side of this game gives him even more upside for defensive peripherals in the paint. He’s one of my favorite tournament plays on the entire slate.
You can also get Hawks exposure via Bogdan Bogdanovic and John Collins, but these are two players whose roles get affected a bit more with the team returning to full health compared to Young and Capela, making them better suited for large-field GPPs with Bogdanovic being the stronger option of the two.
Thunder at Warriors preview
GSW -14.5, total: 228.5
Whether he’s trying to be this bad and assist the tanking effort or not, Luguentz Dort has been absolutely abysmal from the field, hitting only seven of his last 35 shot attempts. His $6,400 price tag is appealing in this matchup and yes, there’s a ceiling, but his current form his giving no reason for optimism. Even if you stretch things out to his last five games, he’s only shot above 40% in one of those games.
If there’s anyone that I want to target from the Thunder (more like, if I was forced to target anymore), Darius Bazley is the one. He’s a legitimate double-double threat and matches up incredibly well with the size (or lack thereof) of this Warriors frontcourt and unlike the majority of his teammates, has a rather secure role. Outside of those two, the rest of this team is too hard to trust. Gabriel Deck would be the most appealing value play given his ultra-efficient play, but the fact that he hasn’t topped 20 minutes is a bit worrisome.
For the Warriors, there’s certainly blowout risk here, but in order for the Warriors to blow a team out, it typically comes as a result of a Stephen Curry ceiling game. While Westbrook is still my top priority if spending up, Curry could be a tournament-winning pivot off him and Doncic, as he’s topped 30 raw points in four straight games and eight of his last 10 games with three of those games going for over 40. Andrew Wiggins and Draymond Green both have upside in this matchup as well, but their production will likely suffer more in a blowout than Curry’s, assuming the latter is the driver of said blowout.
If you’re scripting this game to get out of hand (who isn’t?), then Juan Toscano-Anderson makes for a strong value at $4,800 regardless of the status of Kelly Oubre. Even if this game stays close, Toscano-Anderson should be locked into minutes in the mid-20s, and given his per-minute production, he should have no problem getting you there at only $4,800.
Lakers at Clippers preview
LAC -6.5, total: 211
The nightcap presents us with the battle for LA as the Lakers are getting dangerously close to participating in the play-in tournament in the West. Given that, this is a must-win for them and would also be a huge win for the Clippers in terms of solidifying themselves within the top four spots in the West. With LeBron James and Dennis Schroder out, Anthony Davis will shoulder as much of the offensive load as he can, but his only meeting this season against the Clippers (on opening night), was a bit underwhelming (18 points, seven rebounds, and four assists in 31 minutes). At $9,600, I feel better about the ceilings elsewhere. If craving exposure to the Lakers, my favorite option is Alex Caruso, as weird as it sounds. I was hesitant to go there, last game, but he saw 28 minutes and posted a well-rounded 11/5/3/1/1 stat line and while it won’t jump off of the page, for $4,100, that’s more than reasonable. I have more faith in him at his price than I do players like Kyle Kuzma at his price. The potential absence of Talen Horton-Tucker would only add a few incremental minutes to Caruso’s floor as well.
This Lakers’ defense is still an above-average unit, making it hard for me to really want to get to Paul George and Kawhi Leonard, especially with them both priced as if the other one is going to sit out. While there are certainly a ton of playoff implications in this game, it simply doesn’t set up to be a massive game in terms of DFS production or ownership.
