NFL Circa Millions Picks for Week 3
Michael Cohen
With the start of the 2023 NFL season around the corner, I will be going team by team recapping notable moves in the offseason, projecting their outlook for the upcoming league year. I’ll be using the FTN Prop Shop to pick out my favorite bets with the best line available, today covering the Cincinnati Bengals. Stay up to date on the action placed by myself and the rest of the FTN crew in real-time with the FTN Bet Tracker. You can also follow @FTNAlerts on Twitter with push notifications turned on.
2023 NFL Team Roundup: Cincinnati Bengals
2022 Results
Record: 12-4, 1st in the AFC North
Season Ending: Lost 23-20 to Kansas City in AFC Championship
Cincinnati Bengals Offseason Summary
Draft
1.28: Myles Murphy, DE, Clemson
2.60: DJ Turner, CB, Michigan
3.95: Jordan Battle, S, Alabama
4.131: Charlie Jones, WR, Purdue
5.163: Chase Brown, RB, Illinois
6.206: Andrei Iosivas, WR, Princeton
6.217: Brad Robbins, P, Michigan
7.246: DJ Ivey, CB, Miami
Myles Murphy, DE (1.28)
Cincinnati had the fourth-fewest sacks last year (30), making the Clemson product a great first-round addition.
DJ Turner, CB (2.60)
Speedy CB adds depth to a secondary that will get tested by a 2023 schedule that includes Buffalo, Jacksonville, Minnesota and Kansas City.
Charlie Jones, WR, (4.131)
Purdue standout is possible replacement for Tyler Boyd at year’s end.
Chase Brown, RB, (5.163)
Brown rushed for over 1,600 yards and totaled 13 touchdowns last year for Illinois.
Additions
Free agent signings: QB Trevor Siemian, TE Irv Smith, OT Orlando Brown, OG Cody Ford, LB Tarell Basham, CB Sidney Jones, S Nick Scott
Trevor Siemian, QB
Assumes the backup role to Joe Burrow. Experienced veteran who is with his seventh NFL team.
Irv Smith, TE
Talented but oft-injured tight end will serve as replacement to Hayden Hurst.
Orlando Brown, OT
Still just 27 years old, Brown is a four-time consecutive Pro Bowl tackle who won a Super Bowl with Kansas City last season.
Departures
QB Brandon Allen, RB Samaje Perine, TE Hayden Hurst, CB Eli Apple, CB Tre Flowers, S Jessie Bates, S Vonn Bell, LS Cal Adomitis
Samaje Perine, RB
Perine was a valuable part of the Bengals offense in 2022. The versatile 27-year-old rusher produced career-highs in receptions (38), receiving yards (287) and receiving touchdowns (4). He signed a two-year deal with Denver.
Hayden Hurst, TE
Hurst posted solid totals across the board for the Bengals. Takes his 52 receptions and 414 receiving yards to Carolina.
Jessie Bates, S
Spent five solid seasons with Bengals, achieving second-team All-Pro status in 2020. Signed a four-year deal with Atlanta in March.
Schedule
Week 1 – @Cleveland Browns (Bengals -2.5)
Week 2 – Baltimore Ravens
Week 3 – Los Angeles Rams
Week 4 – @Tennessee Titans
Week 5 – @ Arizona Cardinals
Week 6 – Seattle Seahawks
Week 7 – BYE
Week 8 – @San Francisco 49ers
Week 9 – Buffalo Bills
Week 10 – Houston Texans
Week 11 – Baltimore Ravens
Week 12 – Pittsburgh Steelers
Week 13 – @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Week 14 – Indianapolis Colts
Week 15 – Minnesota Vikings
Week 16 – Pittsburgh Steelers
Week 17 – @ Kansas City Chiefs
Week 18 – Cleveland Browns
Future Odds
Caesars: Wins Over/Under: 11.5 Wins (+105, -125)
DraftKings/BetMGM: AFC North odds: +150
The Bengals suffered from a Super Bowl hangover to start the 2022 season, losing their first two games and entering Week 6 with a 2-3 record. They quickly turned things around from there on, winning 10 of their next 11 games. At 12-4, Cincinnati won the AFC North for the second straight season before getting eliminated in the AFC Conference Championship game in a rematch against the Chiefs. At an11.5 over/under win total, the Bengals are tied for first to log the most wins this upcoming season. Despite winning a dozen games last year, it was the first time they hit that mark over the past seven seasons dating back to 2015. The AFC North should be much improved next season with improved quarterback play across the board which has me leaning towards the under. I still think the Bengals can win fewer than 12 games and win the division, so I don’t hate the +150 odds there.
Best Bets
FanDuel: Joe Burrow Over 4,300.5 Passing Yards (-112)
Over the past two seasons, Joe Burrow has cleared 4,300 passing yards each year despite never playing more than 16 games. The Bengals rested Burrow in Week 18 of the 2021 season and lost a game last season after the Damar Hamlin situation in Week 17. Assuming Burrow plays at least 16 games next season, he should have no trouble clearing this mark with an out to playing all 17 games. The Bengals had no problem putting the ball in the hands of their superstar quarterback, posting a +7.6% pass rate over expectation, trailing only the Chiefs in 2022.
FanDuel: Ja’Marr Chase Most Receiving Yards (+750)
Unibet/Second-Chance Bet: Ja’Marr Chase Most Receiving Touchdowns (+700)
Ja’Marr Chase was a much different player in his second season, averaging 3.04 more targetsand 7.13 more receptions than his 2021 rookie campaign. He started to separate as the true No. 1 of the offense, creating a wide gap among all other Bengals’ pass catchers in targets (134), receptions (87) and receiving yards (1,046). Over the past two seasons, Chase has logged 2,501 receiving yards, the fifth most by any player in their first two seasons, despite missing five games in 2022. He also finished tied for sixth in receiving touchdowns (9) last season in only 12 games, logging 14 end zone targets, tied for fifth in the NFL. In scoring range, the Bengals passed the ball 57.6% of the time in the red zone, the sixth-highest mark in the league.
DraftKings/BetMGM: Tyler Boyd Under 4.5 Touchdowns (-110)
Tyler Boyd had a disappointing 2022 season, logging only 762 receiving yards, his lowest mark since 2017. As the third fiddle on the Bengals’ offense, volume was difficult for Boyd, who finished third on the team in targets (82), behind the two alphas in Ja’Marr Chase (134) and Tee Higgins (109). Although he scored five touchdowns for the second consecutive season, Boyd benefited from Chase and Higgins missing significant time and was fortunate enough to suit up in all 16 games. If the team has better luck next season, Boyd will likely have trouble keeping up his hot scoring streak.
