Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
This year’s crop of NBA rookies is one of the most exciting in recent memory. Of course, there’s the potentially transcendent Victor Wembanyama, but we’ve also got an elite guard prospect in Scoot Henderson and the promising wing who shot up draft boards early in the summer culminating in a second overall selection, Brandon Miller.
There’s also a unique twist to this year’s Rookie of the Year race. Similar to the Ben Simmons vs Donovan Mitchell debate that surrounded the race for this award in 2018 when Simmons was technically still a “rookie” after missing his first season with injury, Chet Holmgren is eligible for this year’s award due to sitting out all of last season.
Another factor that bettors must consider when approaching any of the individual awards for the coming season is that the new collective bargaining agreement sets a minimum threshold of games played at 65 appearances to be eligible for any award. Once the NBA schedule is released in mid-to-late August, we’ll be able to comb through each team’s slate and take stock of how many back-to-back sets a guy like Victor Wembanyama or Chet Holmgren may be taking a seat for in this upcoming season.
Who Will Win NBA Rookie of the Year?
Currently, the top 10 in the Rookie of the Year odds on DraftKings Sportsbook are as follows:
- Victor Wembanyama, San Antonio Spurs (-130)
- Chet Holmgren, Oklahoma City Thunder (+350)
- Scoot Henderson, Portland Trail Blazers (+400)
- Brandon Miller, Charlotte Hornets (+1200)
- Cam Whitmore, Houston Rockets (+2000)
- Jarace Walker, Indiana Pacers (+2500)
- Amen Thompson, Houston Rockets (+2500)
- Ausar Thompson, Detroit Pistons (+3000)
- Anthony Black, Orlando Magic (+3000)
- Aleksandar Vezenkov, Sacramento Kings (+3000)
2022-2023 NBA Rookie of the Year: The Pick
Victor Wembanyama -130
It’s likely more worth our while to discuss why the other options won’t win rather than why Wemby can. The case for him is quite clear. If the No. 1 overall pick clears the 65-game threshold, he’s an extreme value at -130. We saw the immediate impact he had on the defensive end of the floor in Summer League. He’s going to have the most impressive individual game stat lines of the rookie class over the course of a full season. If you watched any of his tape from France, his showcase against G-League Ignite or his two Summer League appearances, you’ll know how many times Wemby is going to walk into 20-point, 10-rebound games just because of his size alone. I don’t think his average stat lines will be in that range, but he’ll have enough impressive games, highlights and stat lines to convince the average voter. He’s also likely to have the largest real-hoops impact, because how I expect that elite defensive ability to translate from France to the NBA. If he hits 65 appearances, I would be shocked if he didn’t take home Rookie of the Year.
2022-2023 NBA Rookie of the Year: Second Tier
A similar case can be made for Holmgren. He’s going to play a large role on the defensive end for Oklahoma City this season and may even be the main reason that the Thunder can secure a top six spot in the West this season. He’s also an impressive offensive talent that should be able to rival Wemby statistically on many nights this season. But there are plenty of cooks in the OKC kitchen and that’s my biggest hesitation with Chet. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Josh Giddey and Jalen Williams will all demand high usage on the offensive end and while his team is better, it is unlikely that Holmgren will put up quite the same defensive metrics I expect Wemby to have by season’s end.
Henderson would be my second-favorite option on this list at the time of this writing. Unless things change dramatically, Damian Lillard is going to be traded at some point before February’s deadline — the sooner the better for Henderson’s chance to win this award. Once Lillard is out of the picture, I expect Scoot to become the clear alpha on this team and his stats will likely be good enough during any time he spends alongside Lillard in the backcourt to buoy his chances until the expected trade. Henderson doesn’t need to overtake someone like Anfernee Simons or Jerami Grant in shot attempts to be the best player on this Portland team or, more importantly, win the hearts of the voters by seasons end.
Obviously, the odds really open up after those first three. In my opinion, bettors would need all three of those top guys to not meet the 65-game threshold for the award to end up with someone else. Miller doesn’t excite me much from this perspective, especially with the news that Miles Bridges should be returning to the Charlotte roster. He is unlikely to be efficient enough from the floor to compete statistically for this award. Whitmore and Walker are on teams that may not win a ton of games, but they likely won’t have large enough roles given the other talents they’re sharing the court with, to win the award.
Amen Thompson would also have to do a lot on this Rockets roster (alongside Jalen Green, Jabari Smith, Alperen Sengun and Kevin Porter) to come out on top. His twin brother Ausar is dealing with a similar logjam of young talent in Detroit next to Cade Cunningham, Jalen Duren and Jaden Ivey. Anthony Black is now part of the most confounding backcourt in the NBA, competing for minutes with Markelle Fultz, Jalen Suggs, and Cole Anthony, while also having to share the court with the likes of Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner. Vezenkov, although he’s my EuroLeague darling, is going to remain in a bench role for the Kings and is likely a Harrison Barnes or Keegan Murray injury away from having a real shot at competing with this secondary group of options.
So Wembanyama is my pick with Henderson as my second choice as things stand in late July. Certainly no hot takes here, but if I was forced to choose a long shot option it would likely be Ausar Thompson while crossing my fingers that the Pistons ship out Bojan Bogdanovic as early as possible.
