Best MLB Bets Today – Free (Thursday 7/27)

Welcome to the FTN’s free MLB Picks of the Day, featuring our favorite or best MLB bets. FTN will be posting a play or two from the MLB card — for free!

Today, MLBdream provides his picks. 

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Best MLB Bets and Picks Today

Chicago Cubs @ St. Louis Cardinals 

Cubs +102 @ Cardinals -120 – Total 9.5 (FanDuel Sportsbook)

We’re 1-1 on writeups this week after Kyle Bradish couldn’t get us to the window Wednesday evening. We’re headed to St. Louis Thursday, as I found an edge in the team total market. 

Miles Mikolas enters play Thursday afternoon with the second-highest ERA of his MLB career at 4.33. Most of his advanced stats show negative regression with an xERA of 4.97 and 4.79 SIERA. Mikolas has posted some of the worst swing-and-miss numbers of his career, along with the lowest groundball percentage at 38.4%. The righty’s 39.7% hard hit rate is also the highest of his MLB career — as it ranks in the 42nd percentile. Most of the 34-year-old’s expected stats rank near the bottom of the leaderboard, as you can see by his Savant page covered in blue below (image via BaseballSavant). His expected batting average and expected slugging rank in the fifth percentile and 14th percentile respectively. Mikolas is facing the Cubbies for his second straight start, he surrendered five runs on 11 hits in five innings last Saturday at Wrigley Field. Things won’t get that much better for the Cards once Mikolas exits – their bullpen has posted the eighth-highest ERA and the seventh-highest SIERA this year. 

For the season, the Cubs’ offense has been just about average, posting a 102 wRC+ against right-handed pitchers. However, over the last 30 days, their 118 wRC+ ranks seventh-best in the show. Ranking sixth in both batting average and runs over that stretch. Chicago has averaged 4.91 runs per game this season (8th-highest in MLB). While the Cardinals have allowed 4.97 runs a game – the sixth most in baseball. That number is even higher at Busch Stadium where they’ve allowed 5.28 runs a game. 

I’m projecting Mikolas to surrender three or four runs in five-plus innings Thursday evening before giving way to the Cards bullpen. Use the FTN Prop Shop to make sure you’re betting the best number available.

Bet

Cubs TT Over 4.5 (-111, FanDuel Sportsbook)