MLB Best Bets for Monday (8/30)

MLB Best Bets is back in action for another Monday edition. Recapping the last column, Minnesota held up their end of the deal scoring four runs in the first four innings in hopes of cashing the F5 over six runs individually. Boston, unfortunately, put up a donut through the first five innings and shattered any hope of securing the win.

Turning the page, we have 11 games on tap for Monday to get the sour taste of the most recent loss out of our mouths, including a rare Monday matinee matchup between Minnesota and Detroit. I’m sure you’re all aware of the drill by now, but I’ll be sifting through the slate analyzing which games I see the most value on. I’ll highlight the angles I plan on attacking in an effort to start the week off in the green. 

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Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays

Baltimore +285 Caesars Sportsbook, Toronto -315 Unibet

Baltimore and Toronto will kick off a three-game divisional series north of the border. Youngster (in terms of MLB experience) Chris Ellis will get the nod for Baltimore today to face off against Toronto southpaw Robbie Ray.

After Baltimore’s well documented 19-game losing streak, they went ahead and secured a series win against Los Angeles, taking the final two games of the series and starting a mini two-game winning streak. Los Angeles then left town and Baltimore promptly got swept by Tampa Bay, restoring order in the world. Throughout this terrible streak, bettors will be surprised to find that Baltimore’s offense has actually been one of the better units in the league. Over the last 30 days, they’ve settled into the top half of the league with overall marks of a .321 wOBA and 103 wRC+, while inching even closer to the top of the league over the last 14 days with a .325 wOBA and 106 wRC+. Over the past week, however, is where they’ve really started to turn the heat up and have MLB-leading marks with both a .390 wOBA and 150 wRC+. Yes, you read that correctly, Baltimore, of all teams, is pacing the entire league offensively over the past week. They’ve quietly been a force against lefties all year with a .323 wOBA and the eighth-highest 105 wRC+. Baltimore’s offense gets overshadowed a lot because they do have an absolutely atrocious record, but most of that can be attributed to their starters having the worst FIP in the MLB (5.32), their bullpen having the fourth-worst FIP (4.65), and being the third-worst defensive team in terms of defensive runs saved (-43). As a squad, this team is brutal, but if you separate out just their offensive numbers, they’ve shown to be able to put up runs with the best of them.

There’s something about putting on a Baltimore uniform that instantly makes pitchers terrible. Chris Ellis started the year with Tampa Bay making just one appearance, against Baltimore ironically, where he went four innings with just three hits, no earned runs, and seven strikeouts. A mere eight days later, Ellis finds himself pitching for Baltimore lasting just three innings against Los Angeles where he allowed five hits, three earned runs, a homer, and three strikeouts. In his limited MLB experience this season, Ellis has allowed extremely high percentages with an 11.8% barrel rate and a whopping 47.1% hard hit rate. If he has another short outing, he has the luxury of being supported by one of the worst bullpens in the majors. As previously mentioned, Baltimore’s bullpen has the fourth-worst 4.65 FIP on the year and has been shockingly worse over the last 30-day stretch, putting up the second-worst 5.82 FIP as a group. Over that span, they’re the proud owners of the third-lowest K%, second-highest BB%, and second-most HR/9 (1.83). As hopeful as the offensive section of this column seemed for Baltimore, their pitching staff is truly what makes them one of, if not the worst team in the majors.

On the other side of the matchup, Baltimore has the honor of facing one of the most intimidating lineups in the major leagues. On the year, Toronto has been putting up top-five numbers in nearly every split imaginable. At home they have top-5 marks with both a .345 wOBA and 115 wRC+, while also lighting righties up to the tune of a .333 wOBA and 109 wRC+, again both top-10 marks. With Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Marcus Semien, Bo Bichette and Teoscar Hernández, Toronto is extremely right-handed heavy so it might be natural to assume that their splits of right-handed bats facing right-handed pitchers might favor the opposition. Well, we all know what they say about assuming, right? All Toronto’s righties have done on the year facing right-handed pitchers is put up the league’s second-highest marks in both wOBA (.344) and wRC+ (117), trailing just the Los Angeles Dodgers in both categories. I’m expecting Toronto to put up some runs in this one facing an inexperienced starter followed by one of the worst bullpens in the league.

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Robbie Ray has been having a fantastic season for Toronto, posting a 2.72 ERA and 3.48 FIP through 25 starts and 152.1 innings, a far cry from his 6.62 ERA and 6.50 FIP he put up in 2020. His peripherals are mostly among the league’s best, highlighted by a K% that ranks within the top-10% of major league pitchers, but his contact numbers are surprisingly among some of the worst in the league. His barrel% ranks in just the bottom-third of pitchers, while both his average exit velocity and hard hit% rank in the bottom­-15% of qualified pitchers. Ray has only had one start against Baltimore this year, putting up an uneventful stat line of just 4.1 innings pitched, six hits, and two earned runs, but his FIP for that individual game was north of 5.20. While I do think he will shut down Baltimore’s offense enough to secure a win, I expect Baltimore to still be able to scratch out a couple runs off of him while he’s still in the game.

The pick

This game features two of the more profitable F5 over teams in the league, one of the best offenses in the majors, and two below-average bullpens over the last 30 days, and everyone knows you can’t spell “below-average bullpens” without “runs”. Ray may be having one of the best seasons of his career, but Baltimore’s success all year against lefties and especially their success recently leads me to believe that they’ll be able to chip in and help the total out a little bit in this one. I’m loading up on overs for this game and hope to make it a clean three-bet, single-game sweep. o9.5 +100 DraftKings Sportsbook, F5 o5 -115 DraftKings Sportsbook, and Toronto TT o5.5 -115 BetMGM