The One Hitter: MLB game-by-game betting breakdown (8/30)

Each day, we are going to try and give you a quick preview of today’s main slate and any interesting betting angles that we spot. Take a look.

All betting lines and information are from the FanDuel Sportsbook. 

Philadelphia Phillies at Washington Nationals betting breakdown

Phillies (-158), Nationals (+134)
Total: 8.5 runs
Zack Wheeler (R) vs. Josiah Gray (R)

Three things to know

• The Phillies have struggled on offense recently—both their team wOBA (.312) and ISO (.174) have been mediocre.
• The Nationals have been similar to their NL East rivals — they’ve recorded a slightly better wOBA (.317) — but have always been tough to strike out (21.2%). This could give us trepidation in rostering Zack Wheeler.
• Can Wheeler win the Cy Young? His 3.34 FIP will certainly keep him in the convo.

Best bets: This is a same-game parlay. A Wheeler under on strikeouts could be in play here, too.

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Baltimore Orioles at Toronto Blue Jays betting breakdown

Orioles (+270), Blue Jays (-335)
Total: 9.5 runs
Chris Ellis (R) vs. Robbie Ray (L)

Three things to know

• The Orioles have been mediocre in the last month with a 23.4% strikeout rate and .315 wOBA.
• The Jays have been struggling – they are actually in the bottom 10 in wOBA in the last month.
• Robbie Ray’s 62.2% first-pitch strike rate is the highest mark of his career.

Best bets: The moneyline odds reflect how heavy we should be betting on Toronto. Smash them in a same-game parlay.

Boston Red Sox at Tampa Bay Rays betting breakdown

Red Sox (+120), Rays (-142)
Total: 8.5 runs
Nick Pivetta (R) vs. Luis Patiño (R)

Three things to know

• The Rays have been spicy, but they whiff a whole lot – to the tune of a 25.6% mark.
• Boston has been surging recently – their .343 wOBA and .197 ISO is at the top of the league.
• Nick Pivetta has tailed off big time – can he keep it up?

Best bets: I love the OVER here, especially with a struggling Pivetta on the bump. 

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New York Yankees at Los Angeles Angels betting breakdown

Yankees (-172), Angels (+144)
Total: 8.5 runs
Corey Kluber (R) vs. José Suarez (L)

Three things to know

• The Yankees need to wake up at the plate – their .163 ISO and 24.6% whiff rate is ugly over the last month.
• The Angels are smack dab in the middle offensively over the same time frame, ranking 15th in wOBA and ISO.
• What will Corey Kluber be able to give as he works into form?

Best bets: The Angels are bad, but I do expect runs here as both pitchers have not been at their best.

San Diego Padres at Arizona Diamondbacks betting breakdown

Padres (-196), Diamondbacks (+164)
Total: 9.5 runs
Chris Paddack (R) vs. Tyler Gilbert (L)

Three things to know

• Can San Diego climb back in the race? The NL West is a pipe dream (15.5 games out), but they are still hunting a Wild Card.
• After a huge game in his return from the IL, Fernando Tatis Jr. has slumped to a .133/.235/.333 line in 11 games. The Padres have a .304 wOBA and .139 ISO in the last month.
• Tyler Gilbert gives up few home runs but allows a ton of fly balls (41.4%).

Best bets: The Padres have been sinking, and fast. I like the underdog here.

Milwaukee Brewers at San Francisco Giants betting breakdown

Brewers (-124), Giants (+106)
Total: 7.5 runs
Corbin Burnes (R) vs. Johnny Cueto (R)

Three things to know

• Numbers can get dicey sometimes – the Giants rank 12th in team WOBA in the last month, but 28th in the last week.
• Milwaukee is in a similar spot – they rank 16th in team wOBA in the last month with a .166 ISO.
• Corbin Burnes is absurd – can he curtail this explosive offense?

Best bets: I love strikeout props, but even this one is high for me. Bet the under on Burnes.

Houston Astros at Seattle Mariners betting breakdown

Mariners (+144), Astros (-166)
Total: 8.0 runs
Chris Flexen (R) vs. Luis García (R)

Three things to know

• Luis García has been incredible, logging a 28.9% strikeout rate this year.
• The Astros have heated back up at the dish – their .327 wOBA in the last month has them at 11th in the league.
• A .311 wOBA (Mariners) isn’t anything great, but it’s a big improvement over their last 30 days.

Best bets: I like the UNDER. These offenses aren’t great, and the pitchers are outstanding.

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Atlanta Braves at Los Angeles Dodgers betting breakdown

Braves (+184), Dodgers (-220)
Total: 9.5 runs
Drew Smyly (L) vs. Julio Urías (L)

Three things to know

• The Dodgers keep rolling – they’ve posted a .178 ISO and .325 wOBA mark over the last 30 days.
• The Braves are neck and neck with the Dodgers, logging a .187 ISO and .324 wOBA over the same time frame.
• Can Julio Urías keep up a great year with a career-high workload in innings?

Best bets: I don’t trust Drew Smyly here. Bet the OVER.

(Get all my MLB betting picks here)

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