The One Hitter: MLB game-by-game betting breakdown (8/30)

Each day, we are going to try and give you a quick preview of today’s main slate and any interesting betting angles that we spot. Take a look.

All betting lines and information are from the FanDuel Sportsbook.

Phillies (-158), Nationals (+134)
Total: 8.5 runs
Zack Wheeler (R) vs. Josiah Gray (R)

The Phillies have struggled on offense recently—both their team wOBA (.312) and ISO (.174) have been mediocre.
The Nationals have been similar to their NL East rivals — they’ve recorded a slightly better wOBA (.317) — but have always been tough to strike out (21.2%). This could give us trepidation in rostering Zack Wheeler.
Can Wheeler win the Cy Young? His 3.34 FIP will certainly keep him in the convo.

Best bets: This is a same-game parlay. A Wheeler under on strikeouts could be in play here, too.

Orioles (+270), Blue Jays (-335)
Total: 9.5 runs
Chris Ellis (R) vs. Robbie Ray (L)

The Orioles have been mediocre in the last month with a 23.4% strikeout rate and .315 wOBA.
The Jays have been struggling – they are actually in the bottom 10 in wOBA in the last month.
Robbie Ray’s 62.2% first-pitch strike rate is the highest mark of his career.

Best bets: The moneyline odds reflect how heavy we should be betting on Toronto. Smash them in a same-game parlay.

Red Sox (+120), Rays (-142)
Total: 8.5 runs
Nick Pivetta (R) vs. Luis Patiño (R)

The Rays have been spicy, but they whiff a whole lot – to the tune of a 25.6% mark.
Boston has been surging recently – their .343 wOBA and .197 ISO is at the top of the league.
Nick Pivetta has tailed off big time – can he keep it up?

Best bets: I love the OVER here, especially with a struggling Pivetta on the bump.

Yankees (-172), Angels (+144)
Total: 8.5 runs
Corey Kluber (R) vs. José Suarez (L)

The Yankees need to wake up at the plate – their .163 ISO and 24.6% whiff rate is ugly over the last month.
The Angels are smack dab in the middle offensively over the same time frame, ranking 15th in wOBA and ISO.
What will Corey Kluber be able to give as he works into form?

Best bets: The Angels are bad, but I do expect runs here as both pitchers have not been at their best.

Padres (-196), Diamondbacks (+164)
Total: 9.5 runs
Chris Paddack (R) vs. Tyler Gilbert (L)

Can San Diego climb back in the race? The NL West is a pipe dream (15.5 games out), but they are still hunting a Wild Card.
After a huge game in his return from the IL, Fernando Tatis Jr. has slumped to a .133/.235/.333 line in 11 games. The Padres have a .304 wOBA and .139 ISO in the last month.
Tyler Gilbert gives up few home runs but allows a ton of fly balls (41.4%).

Best bets: The Padres have been sinking, and fast. I like the underdog here.

Brewers (-124), Giants (+106)
Total: 7.5 runs
Corbin Burnes (R) vs. Johnny Cueto (R)

Numbers can get dicey sometimes – the Giants rank 12th in team WOBA in the last month, but 28th in the last week.
Milwaukee is in a similar spot – they rank 16th in team wOBA in the last month with a .166 ISO.
Corbin Burnes is absurd – can he curtail this explosive offense?

Best bets: I love strikeout props, but even this one is high for me. Bet the under on Burnes.

Mariners (+144), Astros (-166)
Total: 8.0 runs
Chris Flexen (R) vs. Luis García (R)

Luis García has been incredible, logging a 28.9% strikeout rate this year.
The Astros have heated back up at the dish – their .327 wOBA in the last month has them at 11th in the league.
A .311 wOBA (Mariners) isn’t anything great, but it’s a big improvement over their last 30 days.

Best bets: I like the UNDER. These offenses aren’t great, and the pitchers are outstanding.

Braves (+184), Dodgers (-220)
Total: 9.5 runs
Drew Smyly (L) vs. Julio Urías (L)

The Dodgers keep rolling – they’ve posted a .178 ISO and .325 wOBA mark over the last 30 days.
The Braves are neck and neck with the Dodgers, logging a .187 ISO and .324 wOBA over the same time frame.
Can Julio Urías keep up a great year with a career-high workload in innings?

Best bets: I don’t trust Drew Smyly here. Bet the OVER.