DraftKings Pools – Free Week 1 Pick ‘Em Picks

FTN is incredibly excited to announce a new partnership with Collectable and DraftKings with a $20k pick ‘em freeroll.

(For more details on the contest and rules, click here.)

The $20k freeroll is free to play for anyone 21 and older in the United States and does not require you to be in a legal betting state. With $3,000 up top, there is real money up for grabs — you just have to pick both the spread and total for each of the 14 Sunday games. It is important to note that spreads and totals are locked in and cannot move, but you have the ability to edit picks until the contest locks. This is something you should take advantage of in situations where you don’t have much conviction — get the best number and take the bump in implied probability.

(Join this FREE contest at DraftKings Sportsbook to earn your share of $20,000.)

Let’s break down the Week 1 games.

One really important historical trend in Week 1 the last three years — the team that has won the game finished 38-5-3 ATS. If you like a team to win, you should lean heavily in the favor of them covering as well. 

Week 1 NFL pick ‘em picks – DraftKings Sportsbook

Below is a look at my pick ‘em picks for Week 1 in the NFL.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Buffalo Bills

(Bills -6.5, total 50.5)

Josh Allen’s ascension was nothing short of spectacular last year, as he improved in all facets of his game and led the Bills to the AFC’s No. 2 seed and third-most points per game last season. The Bills surprised bookmakers with their play, leading to the second-highest cover rate in football last season (63.2%) … though the Steelers weren’t far behind, covering 58.8% of the time, the sixth best in football. The Bills won last season’s matchup 26-15, giving the Steelers their second loss — that was when the wheels started to fall off in Pittsburgh. With the Steelers having one of the league’s worst offensive lines and the far lesser quarterback, I like the Bills to win this game and dominate on offense, despite Pittsburgh’s strong defense.

Game pick: Bills -6.5 and Over 50.5

Seattle Seahawks at Indianapolis Colts 

(Seahawks -1.5, total 48.5)

This line has bounced all over the place since opening with the Colts favored by one and moving as high to the Seahawks by three. This is in large part due to the uncertainty of the Colts quarterback Carson Wentz — the initial timeline for his foot injury was 5-12 weeks, meaning Jacob Eason or Sam Ehlinger would start in Wentz’ place if he were to miss. But for now, Wentz looks good to go. The Colts have the better roster, but Wentz was one of the worst quarterbacks in football last year with the highest interceptable pass rate in football. Russell Wilson started off hot last year, but the Seahawks got more conservative as the season went on. With new offensive coordinator Shane Waldron wanting to push the pace more, we could see a big season for the Seahawks. Last year in games the Seahawks threw 35 or more times, they averaged 29.38 points per game, per the FTN Splits tool. With the Seahawks picking up the pace and still having one of the worst secondaries in sports, I like them in a high-scoring affair.

Game pick: Seahawks -1.5 and Over 48.5

New York Jets at Carolina Panthers

(Panthers -4.5, total 42.5)

The Jets are a much-improved team with far betting coaching this season, but they will still be trotting out a rookie quarterback making his first ever NFL start on the road with the league’s worst secondary. A huge loss for the Jets this season and this game is star free agent signing Carl Lawson, lost in the preseason to an Achilles tear. Without him and backup Vinny Curry, the Jets are already outlooking for more edge rushing help. The Jets have very little edge rushing ability to speak of and a terrible secondary going up against a trio of receivers in D.J. Moore, Robby Anderson and Terrace Marshall who are going to give them fits. Sam Darnold should improve away from Adam Gase, and the Panthers should be able to exploit the Jets’ weaknesses and cover 4.5. With neither team having a good defense, I lean the over as well.

Game pick: Panthers -4.5 and Over 42.5

San Francisco 49ers at Detroit Lions 

(49ers -7.5, total 45.5)

The Lions are a bottom-three roster in football, and historically, that has not trended well for early-season betting performance. Two of the worst teams in football last year — the Jets and Texans — both started 1-7 ATS, and the previous year the Dolphins started 0-8 against the spread. Look for the Lions to get beat up in this game with very little firepower to compete with a loaded 49ers roster. With such little offensive firepower, I don’t expect the Lions to put up enough points for this game to go over.

Game pick: 49ers -7.5 and Under 45.5

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Los Angeles Chargers at Washington Football Team

(Chargers -1.5, total 44.5)

This is one of the games I am most excited for in Week 1. The Chargers are one of the league’s most improved teams with a new coach and a young quarterback in Justin Herbert who has a chance to be an absolute star. Washington had the league’s worst quarterback situation last year, though it should be much improved with Ryan Fitzpatrick, and the team plugged its biggest holes at receiver, cornerback and linebacker. I don’t have a strong play on this game, but I am excited to watch two teams I think make the playoffs. I lean the home dog in Washington and the over.

Game pick: Washington +1.5 and Over 44.5

Philadelphia Eagles at Atlanta Falcons

(Falcons -3.5, total 48.5)

This total opened as low as 46 and has climbed 2.5 points since. It makes a lot of sense as these are two of the worst defenses in football playing in a dome. Fast tracks tend to lead to more points, and both teams improved their offenses this offseason with the additions of DeVonta Smith and Kyle Pitts, two of the draft’s top playmakers. While Julio Jones is gone and that has meant fewer passing yards for the Falcons (on average 50 fewer to be exact), there are enough advantages in the secondary to take advantage of for this game to go over. This will be Jalen Hurts’ fifth ever career start and the Eagles head coach Nick Sirianni will be making his debut against the veteran Matt Ryan and Arthur Smith, who is also making his Falcons debut. I wish the hook wasn’t there, but I like the Falcons to win the game and will stick with the trend of the team that wins, covers in Week 1.

Game pick: Falcons -3.5 and Over 48.5

Arizona Cardinals at Tennessee Titans 

(Titans -2.5, total 51.5)

As I posted in the FTN Bet Tracker, this over is one of my favorites bets of the week. Titans playcaller Arthur Smith is gone, and the Titans are expected to pick up the pace this year and throw more than in years past, especially with Julio Jones in the fold. Last season, the Titans had the second-most touchdowns in football, and here they play a Cardinals team that runs hurry-up more than any other team in football. With a blistering pace and two talented offenses, I like this game to be a shootout. As I mentioned at the top of the article, lines move and you should take advantage of it. This game has now moved to Titans -3, and going up from 2.5 to 3 is a significant change. Take advantage of the line value and grab the Titans.

Game pick: Titans -2.5 and Over 51.5

Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans 

(Jaguars -2.5, total 45.5)

The NFL put the toilet bowl on TV in Week 1 between the team with the worst record last year and the team in the Texans that is favored to have the worst record in football this season (+200). Both these defenses are horrendous and project as bottom-five units, while the Jaguars have young talented playmakers on offense and the Texans have a group of journeymen. Short road dog, which will be a public favorite, with a head coach that is already showing his NFL inexperience in Urban Meyer all combine to make this an ugly team to back, but betting on the worst team in football is also tough. This is a game-theory play picking the Texans, as I expect most of the field to be on the Jaguars and you gain leverage by being on the other side. With two of the worst defenses on the field I lean the over slightly here as well.

Game pick: Texas +2.5 and Over 45.5

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Minnesota Vikings at Cincinnati Bengals 

(Vikings -3.5, total 48.5)

The Vikings have been battling the injury bug as Adam Thielen has a thigh bruise, Justin Jefferson has an AC joint sprain and Irv Smith hurt his knee — though both Jefferson and Thielen are fully expected to play. While the Vikings playmakers will be difference makers, what they did in the trenches might pay the biggest dividends in Week 1 against Mike Zimmer’s former team. They are a much-improved defense that fixed the interior of one of the bottom-five teams in adjusted line yards by beefing up the interior, adding Everson Griffen, and having Danielle Hunter healthy for this game. The Bengals decided to pass on an O-lineman (Penei Sewell) for a receiver (Ja’Marr Chase) and have an offensive line that can be exploited. The Vikings winning this battle in the trenches is the way they will win this game. The Bengals having the explosive playmakers is how they will keep it close. I like the Vikings and the over in this one.

Game pick: Vikings 03.5 and Over 48.5

Green Bay Packers at New Orleans Saints 

(Packers -3.5, total 50.5)

I grabbed the Green Bay Packers in the FTN Bet Tracker moneyline at +130 when there was worry Aaron Rodgers may retire, a lesson in embracing market volatility while others are certain of the uncertain.

The Packers come into this game against a Saints team starting Jameis Winston for the first time with their top outside playmaker being Marquez Callaway due to Michael Thomas; injury. The Saints will need to win on the ground behind their elite run blocking offensive line.

See the video from FTN’s Brooke Kromer on just how good the Saints offensive line is:

While the Packers run defense was an Achillies heel last year, they win everywhere else in this game, as Rodgers and company should be able to exploit the Saints secondary and have too much firepower to match. With the Saints needing to lean on the run game so heavily and lack big plays, the game should finish under more times than not.

Game pick: Packers -3.5 and Under 50.5

Cleveland Browns at Kansas City Chiefs 

(Chiefs -6.5, total 52.5)

Per the FTN Splits Tool, if you take out the Raiders and Texans games last season, the Browns averaged 28 points per game. Why remove those two games? Both took place during hurricane-like conditions. This is a loaded Browns roster that can put up points in bunches. The over has already moved to 53 points elsewhere and 52.5 is a valuable line — I wouldn’t be surprised to see this close at 54. 

While the Browns pack a lot of firepower, no one has more firepower than the Chiefs, led by MVP frontrunner Patrick Mahomes. With an improved offensive line, I expect them to score at will against almost any opponent. The Browns are one of the best rosters in football and getting 6.5 with them is a bet I almost always would take, but the Week 1 trend being so strong that the winning team covers, I just cannot ignore it.

Game pick: Chiefs -6.5 and Over 52.5

Denver Broncos at New York Giants 

(Broncos -1.5, total 42.5)

The Broncos’ biggest question mark this season is at quarterback, as they get both star edge rushers Von Miller and Bradley Chubb back for what should be a loaded defense. On offense, Courtland Sutton comes back from a torn ACL, and Jerry Jeudy looks to be a Year 2 breakout. Sutton isn’t the only star to return from an ACL injury in this game, as Saquon Barkley is also expected to make his return. While there are a lot of stars on the field, there are also two below-average quarterbacks and two of the league’s top defenses on the field. Look for this to be a slow-paced, old-school football game. With the better roster, coaching staff, and a quarterback I trust more, I like the Broncos to come away with the win in this one.

Game pick: Broncos -1.5 and Under 42.5

Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots 

(Patriots -3.5, total 44.5)

The Dolphins were the best team in football against the spread last year, going 11-5 ATS and covering 68.8% of the time. Led by a fantastic defense and two of the league’s best corners, quarterback play held the Dolphins back last season. Now they will add Jaylen Waddle and Will Fuller to the mix (though Fuller will miss Week 1 to finish his suspension) and a healthy Tua Tagovailoa. Tua has looked great all preseason and has started to show people why he was the fifth overall pick. While the Patriots have the best coach in football, their quarterback play will either be led by a rookie in his debut (Mac Jones) or Cam Newton, who threw for multiple touchdowns just once all of last season. Getting the hook here is massive as the current line is 3 or 2.5 at all books, making the Dolphins a no-brainer side here. Both games went under the total last year in a divisional matchup where the coaches know each other extremely well I expect that to be what happens again this time.

Game pick: Dolphins +3.5 and Under 44.5

Chicago Bears at Los Angeles Rams 

(Rams -6.5, total 45.5)

Last year, the Rams allowed 13.1 points per game at home — the next-closest team was 18 points. They had the league’s top defense and had the perfect weapon in Jalen Ramsey to slow down the Bears’ one real threat in Allen Robinson. Yes, Darnell Mooney is developing, but the Rams defense should be able to overwhelm the Bears, especially with Andy Dalton at the helm. The Rams added Matthew Stafford this offseason and can finally see what Sean McVay’s offense can do with a quality quarterback. After losing Cam Akers for the season, the Rams will rely on Darrell Henderson and Sony Michel. But what they will really rely on is one of the league’s most dangerous passing attacks. I expect the Rams dominate from the opening whistle on both sides of the ball.

Game pick: Rams -6.5 and Under 45.5

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