Week 15 lames: Ongoing dropsies label Diontae untrustworthy in Cincy

Each week the Noise highlights 10 somewhat un-obvious names who he believes will leave egg on his face. To qualify, each player must be started in at least 50% of Yahoo leagues. Speaking as an accountability advocate, I will post results, whether genius or moronic, the following week using the scoring system shown here (Thresholds – QB: 18 fantasy points, RB: 12 fantasy points, WR: 11 fantasy points, TE: 10 fantasy points). If you’re a member of TEAM HUEVOS, reveal your Week 15 Lames via Twitter @NoisyHuevos.

Russell Wilson, QB, Seattle Seahawks

(90% started in Yahoo; DK DFS: $7,300)
Matchup: vs. WAS
Vegas line/Total: SEA -5, 44

King Tut’s Tomb, Macbeth, the Hope Diamond … Ciara? Among famous curses, those in the greater Seattle area probably most believe in the R&B starlet’s crippling affliction. Well, that is, they did for approximately four weeks. Wilson stiff armed any supernatural malediction last week. The Jets, dealing with their own excruciating hex, were an ideal cure-all. Against the Puddle Jumpers, Wilson rediscovered his mojo compiling 206 passing yards and four touchdowns in a 40-3 mollywhopping. Still, his QB17 standing Weeks 10-13 has some wondering if the resurgence is only temporary.

Wilson, one of the best deep-ball and under-pressure passers in the game, will be badgered incessantly in Week 15. Washington, featuring bookends Montez Sweat and Chase Young, chase down quarterbacks with the dogged determination of a dozen GOOOOOLLLLDDDD-crazed Yukon Corneliuses. This season, they’ve brought heat on 30.9% of opposition snaps tallying 40 sacks, which ranks them fourth in the league. Against signal callers, they’ve conceded a mere 6.6 pass yards per attempt, 226.2 passing yards per game, 1.4 passing TDs per contest and the 11th-fewest fantasy points. DK Metcalf will be a handful, as he is for everyone, for Washington’s vulnerable peripheral DBs. However, with the Fighting Footballs surrendering just a pair of multi-TD passers since Week 6, it implies Wilson could post marginal numbers by his high standard.

Fearless forecast: 218 passing yards, 1 passing touchdown, 1 turnovers, 26 rushing yards, 14.3 fantasy points

Clyde Edwards-Helaire, RB, Kansas City Chiefs

(66%; $5,800)
Matchup: at NO
Vegas line/Total: KC -3.5, 51.5

As soon as Damien Williams announced he would opt out of the 2020 season, a CEH frenzy ensued across Fantasyland. It was every toy craze all wrapped into one — Cabbage Patch Kids, Beanie Babies, the PS5, whatever Arnold Schwarzenegger was chasing in Jingle All the Way. Yes, all of them. Equipped with the fervor of 100 hell-bent parents frantically waiting for a pre-Christmas drop at the local Wal-Mart, fantasy GMs spent first-round draft capital, in some cases the No. 1 overall pick, to secure the latest novelty. With the benefit of hindsight, boy, was that an idiotic move. CEH, currently RB15 in 0.5 PPR leagues, has left suitors profitless. Occasional abandonment of the run game and Le'Veon Bell’s presence have crushed his statistical dependability. His 2.92 YAC per attempt, 21.8 missed tackle rate and top-15 standing in yards created per touch are nothing to scoff at, but each week backers’ faith in him subsides.

If you’re looking to survive Week 15, don’t count on CEH as a key cog for advancement. He’s registered at least 12 touches in three straight games (if you don’t count his active-but-not-really Week 13), but with only one 12-plus fantasy point effort in his last five (0.5 PPR), he isn’t remotely bankable as a RB2 in 12-team leagues. The opponent, New Orleans, is an intimidating foe. Miles Sanders experienced a rebirth against the Saints last week, but, for the most part, the bayou representatives have dragged RBs into the murky waters. This season, they’ve allowed 3.69 yards per carry, 98.0 total yards per game, seven TDs and the fewest fantasy points to the position. Demario Davis and Cameron Jordan have combined for 42 tackles for loss against the run. Expecting a top-24 finish is high Helaire-ity.

Fearless forecast: 11 carries, 34 rushing yards, 4 receptions, 21 receiving yards, 0 touchdowns, 7.5 fantasy points

Kenyan Drake, RB, Arizona Cardinals

(73%; $5,500)
Matchup: vs. PHI
Vegas line/Total: ARZ -6.5, 48

In many ways, Drake is the Snickerdoodle of holiday treats. Some people love him. Others harbor more disparaging feelings. Peanut butter Hershey Kiss cookies for the win, BTW. Disagree? Go polish some jingle bells.

In all seriousness, the Arizona RB has performed better than most think. He’s presently RB9 in 0.5 PPR scoring despite inconsistent contributions as a pass catcher. His transformation from scatback to red-zone pile driver has been underreported. His 18 carries inside the 5 is only bested by Ezekiel Elliott (23) and Dalvin Cook (22). The frequent end-zone plunges have masked otherwise eye-gouging analytics (e.g. 2.57 YAC/att, 12.8% missed tackle percentage), but, suffice to say, Drake has delivered on all draft season expectations. In a year filled with unpredictability, he’s provided much needed stability. His recent revival as a receiver has only padded the bottom line.

This Sunday, “TD or bust” is a phrase that most aptly applies to Arizona’s D-line slammer. Though the Eagles have loosened up a bit versus the run over the last couple weeks, they remain quite formidable. This season, they’ve given up 3.70 yards per carry, 86.0 rush yards per game and 13 rush TDs to RBs, ranking them in the top-third in fewest fantasy points allowed. LB Alex Singleton is a premier stalwart against the run, ranking No. 11 among all defenders in total tackles for loss with 26. The Cardinals’ persistent volume is always attractive, but for him to leave egg on this Medusa face, punching one in for six is imperative.

Fearless forecast: 16 carries, 48 rushing yards, 2 receptions, 13 receiving yards, 0 touchdowns, 7.1 fantasy points

Michael Thomas, WR, New Orleans Saints

(88%; $7,200)
Matchup: vs. KC
Vegas line/Total: KC -3.5, 51.5

Forget COVID-19 or death by shark attack — I’m terribly afraid — how this laughably inaccurate blatherskite descends to the depths of hell will be via the wheels of Jose Cuervo’s all-you-can-drink-put-me-in-a-grave-now grim reaper express. For just $114 you can pickle your liver en route to a full distillery tour, which I assume will partake while balled up inside a wheelbarrow.

If that doesn’t lead to an imminent demise, starting Thomas with a league Super Bowl berth on the line will. Largely selected as the No. 1 overall wide receiver in fantasy drafts, Thomas, sapped by a high-ankle sprain that cost him multiple games and Taysom Hill misfires, has returned exactly pennies on the dollar. Down in the 0.5 PPR per game ranks (WR47) behind such superheroes as Nelson Agholor, Travis Fulgham and Allen Lazard, it’s been a catastrophic and dramatic decline for the once unbenchable WR1. He has crossed the 80-yard mark in three of his last four games, but without a TD to his name this year, he isn’t a sure-fire WR2 or WR3 lock each week.

This week, New Orleans clashes with fellow league titan Kansas City in a colossal matchup that could be a Super Bowl LV sneak preview. For the receiver, it’s a damning setup. The Chiefs have allowed the second-fewest fantasy points to wide receivers and just 6.8 pass yards per attempt. Complicating matters further, he’ll exchange season’s greetings with CB Bashaud Breeland, who’s given up a 56.8 catch percentage, 85.6 passer rating and 0.79 yards per snap. In total, only three WRs have reached 70 yards against KC since Week 6. It’s doubtful Thomas becomes the fourth.

Fearless forecast: 5 receptions, 62 receiving yards, 0 touchdowns, 8.7 fantasy points

Diontae Johnson, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers

(82%; $6,400)
Matchup: at CIN
Vegas line/Total: PIT -12.5, 40.5

Kitchen fail videos are widely distributed across social media channels much to the embarrassment of those featured and to the delight of those who watch. From intricately prepared turkeys to tiered cakes, the humor of watching someone drop a long-toiled over food project on a germ-ridden floor always sparks a chuckle. Just like Kevin from The Office, who famously spilled an entire pot of chili, we’ve all been there. When it happens, all you can do is smile.

Johnson’s bout with the dropsies, however, is no laughing matter. The man secretes butter from his pores. It’s abundantly clear. His 12 drops rank No. 1 in the dubious category, outpacing No. 2 (DK Metcalf) by three. So plaguing are his concentration lapses, he was benched for a significant portion of Pittsburgh’s latest loss at Buffalo. Overall, he played on just 49% of the team snaps, a season low if you exclude his pair of injury-marred efforts. That combined with the Steelers suddenly sputtering offense has Johnson, despite his substantial 22.9% target share, on the naughty list. Undoubtedly he’s trending toward a last-round pick in a trust fall exercise.

Yes, his Week 15 matchup is against Cincinnati. It’s a potential get-right spot for Johnson and the entire Steelers offense. The Bengals have surrendered 7.4 pass yards per attempt, 159.1 wide receiver yards per game and the 11th-most air yards per contest this season. Most alluringly, his projected assignment LeShaun Sims has allowed a 137.6 passer rating and 1.66 yards per snap. Still, the risk is immense. If he puts one on the ground early, James Washington’s role is destined to swell. If you have viable alternatives (e.g. Tim Patrick vs. BUF, T.Y. Hilton vs. HOU, Keke Coutee at IND or Kendrick Bourne at DAL), deeply weigh their merits.

Fearless forecast: 5 receptions, 57 receiving yards, 0 touchdowns, 8.2 fantasy points

Bonus lames (over 50% started)

RB: Ezekiel Elliott, DAL (Line: SF -3.5; DK: $6,100) — Letdown of the year? Zeke is undeniably a nominee in the category. His precipitous dropoff in multiple advanced analytics and surface categories is alarming. Point the finger at Dallas’ disheveled offensive line. Point the finger at donut inhaler Mike McCarthy. Point the figure at the injury imp feasting on Dak Prescott. Pin the blame on whoever or whatever you want, but the bottom line is Elliott isn’t absolved from wrongdoing. He’s trudged through molasses for much of the year. Really, he’s no different than David Johnson, an erosive veteran back who is only kept in the RB2 conversation due to volume. Since Week 6, he’s RB24, outplayed by the likes of J.D. McKissic, Gus Edwards and Giovani Bernard in 0.5 PPR. Over that stretch he averaged 72.5 total yards per game, scored twice and notched a wretched 2.46 YAC per attempt. This week, he goes nose-to-nose with San Francisco. This year, Fred Warner and Friends have given up 3.71 yards per carry, 74.7 rush yards per game, six ground scores and the sixth-fewest fantasy points to RBs. If you have Zeke, chances are you’re already eliminated, but if not, seek another source. (FF: 15-45-0-2-13-0, 6.8 fantasy points)

RB: Wayne Gallman, NYG (Line: CLV -4.5; DK: $5,600) — Of all the randomness to the 2020 season, Gallman might be the most out-of-left-field development. The once widely perceived vanilla-flavored RB scoop has morphed into a statistical sundae, topped with sprinkles, fudge and plentiful touchdowns. Almost unfathomably, he ranks RB3 in YAC per attempt (3.74), trailing only perennial road graders Nick Chubb and Derrick Henry. Equally eye opening, he ranks RB10 in breakaway run percentage and RB6 in total 0.5 PPR points scored since Week 7, sandwiched between Antonio Gibson and #MandatoryMontgomery in the category. Similar to Drake, however, he’s a TD-dependent play in Week 15. The Giants face off with Cleveland, a defense featuring interior enforcers Sheldon Richardson and Sione Takitaki who have totaled 35 tackles for loss versus the run. As a collective, the Browns have allowed 4.13 yards per carry and 83.5 rush yards per game to RBs. Gallman has scored in five of his last six and topped 90 combined yards in consecutive weeks, but on the big Sunday night stage expect a pedestrian outcome. (FF: 16-67-1-6-0, 7.8 fantasy points)

WR: Tyler Lockett, SEA (Line: SEA -5.5; DK: $6,700) — Any current parent or one who reared small children previously can understand the nerve-piercing pain stepping on a Lego can cause. It stings like the dickens. Minus his historic 15-200-3 eruption in Arizona Week 7 and a worthwhile 9-67-1 performance the second go round versus the Cardinals, he’s WR62 since Week 4 in 0.5 PPR formats averaging a useless 4.1 receptions and 45.0 yards per game while scoring zero times. Yep, you read that correctly, WR62, right up there with fantasy goliaths Willie Snead, Henry Ruggs and Tre’Quan Smith. It’s taken the gamer community entirely too long to embrace Lockett as nothing more than a flex option in 12-team leagues. And he’s not particularly resourceful under that definition. This week against Washington, the third-toughest secondary versus slot targets giving up 44.2 yards per game, he’s pine worthy. Accept it. His overall WR12 standing in 0.5 PPR is farcical. (FF: 4-43-0, 6.3 fantasy points)

WR: Adam Thielen, MIN (Line: MIN -3.5; DK: $7,100) — Somewhere beneath the frozen surface among one of Minnesota’s 10,000 lakes resides Thielen’s fantasy value. That is, it will for the second straight week. Last Sunday in Tampa, he totaled 39 yards, the sixth time he failed to reach 50 yards in a game. His galactic 45.9% red-zone percentage and steady end-zone spikes (12 in total) keep him in the weekly WR2 conversation, at a minimum, but versus a reborn Chicago defense he could tuck beneath the usual floor. Kyle Fuller, Thielen’s projected shadow, has yielded only a 51.4% catch percentage, 76.2 passer rating and 0.70 yards per snap. He held the wideout to four catches for 42 yards in the first matchup, but a pair of TDs catapulted No. 19 into the WR1 ranks. Takeaway the TDs in the rematch and an ice-encased effort occurs. (FF: 5-49-0, 7.4 fantasy points)

TE: Mike Gesicki, MIA (Line: MIA -2; DK: $4,800) — Bill Belichick is unmistakably the NFL’s Grinch. From his montotoned responses in postgame press conferences to his slovenly sleeveless sweatshirts, occasionally featuring moth-munched holes, to rare face-adoring smiles, the man is always determined to steal the last can of Who Hash. This week, he, alongside his trusty shiba inu, will devise an awful idea, a wonderful, awful idea. He’ll expose Tua Tagovailoa like he did fellow rookie passer Justin Herbert with a series of twists, stunts and exotic blitzes. It’s what sustains him. That, and sweet teriyaki sandwiches from Subway. Gesicki, who has ridden a heater the past three weeks (16-188-4), is sure to extinguish. The Pats, roadblocks for opposing tight ends, have allowed 3.8 receptions per game, 45.8 yards per game, one touchdown and the third-fewest fantasy points to the position on the season. (Dealing with an arm/shoulder injury, he’s no guarantee to go. If he cowboys up, it only enhances his ‘Lame’ chances.) (FF: 3-31-0, 4.6 fantasy points)