NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
Welcome to the Week 15 fantasy football start/sit column, where I have detailed which players you should start and sit this week based on their recent trends, matchups, and other game contexts.
- Players are labeled as starts if I rank them better than the consensus and sits if I rank them worse than the consensus, but consider your specific league contexts to make your start and sit decisions.
- The positional rankings and fantasy point totals rely on half PPR scoring.
- The consensus rankings refer to the FantasyPros expert consensus.
- You can find my weekly rankings and those of other FTN writers here.
Week 15 Start/Sit: Quarterbacks
Kirk Cousins, Vikings vs. Colts (Dome)
Week 15 Positional Ranking: 7th, +1 vs. consensus (8th)
+ Venue: Kirk Cousins has averaged 1.1 more fantasy points per game at home than on the road the last two and a half seasons.
+ Efficiency: Cousins has thrown just 20 touchdowns but has 24.75 expected passing touchdowns in 2022, and that sixth biggest 4.75-touchdown shortfall should regress positively the rest of the season.
– Opponent: The Colts have decreased expected passing touchdowns by 0.24 per game in 2022, fifth most in football.
Tom Brady, Bucs vs. Bengals (62 degrees and cloudy)
Week 15 Positional Ranking: 10th, +2 vs. consensus (12th)
+ Efficiency: Tom Brady has thrown just 17 touchdowns but has 25.10 expected passing touchdowns in 2022, and that position-leading 8.10-touchdown shortfall should regress positively the rest of the season.
– Opponent: The Bengals have decreased expected passing touchdowns by 0.19 per game in 2022, sixth most in football.
Mike White, Jets vs. Lions (34 degrees and clear)
Week 15 Positional Ranking: 12th, +1 vs. consensus (13th)
+ Efficiency: Mike White has thrown just 3 touchdowns but has 5.37 expected passing touchdowns in 2022, and that 2.37-touchdown shortfall should regress positively the rest of the season.
+ Opponent: The Lions have increased expected passing touchdowns by 0.32 per game in 2022, second most in football.
Aaron Rodgers, Packers vs. Rams (11 degrees with a 63% chance of light snow)
Week 15 Positional Ranking: 15th, +1 vs. consensus (16th)
+ Venue: Aaron Rodgers has averaged 2.1 more fantasy points per game at home than on the road the last two and a half seasons.
– Volume: Extremely cold temperatures and a 63% chance of light snow will likely skew the Packers’ pass/run balance toward the run.
Tua Tagovailoa, Dolphins at Bills (29 degrees with a 60% chance of snow)
Week 15 Positional Ranking: 11th, -1 vs. consensus (10th)
– Volume: Cold temperatures and a 60% chance of snow will likely skew the Dolphins’ pass/run balance toward the run.
Geno Smith, Seahawks vs. 49ers (40 degrees and clear)
Week 15 Positional Ranking: 13th, -2 vs. consensus (11th)
– Opponent: The 49ers have decreased expected passing touchdowns by 0.27 per game in 2022, fourth most in football.
Jared Goff, Lions at Jets (34 degrees and clear)
Week 15 Positional Ranking: 16th, -1 vs. consensus (15th)
– Venue: Jared Goff has averaged 1.6 more fantasy points per game at home than on the road the last two and a half seasons.
– Opponent: The Jets have decreased expected passing touchdowns by 0.36 per game in 2022, second most in football.
Derek Carr, Raiders vs. Patriots (Dome)
Week 15 Positional Ranking: 19th, -1 vs. consensus (18th)
– Opponent: The Patriots have decreased expected passing touchdowns by 0.18 per game in 2022, tied for seventh most in football.
Ryan Tannehill, Titans at Chargers (Dome)
Week 15 Positional Ranking: 21st, -1 vs. consensus (20th)
– Venue: Ryan Tannehill has averaged 2.0 more fantasy points per game at home than on the road the last two and a half seasons.
+ Opponent: The Chargers have increased expected passing touchdowns by 0.16 per game in 2022, eighth most in football.
Mac Jones, Patriots at Raiders (Dome)
Week 15 Positional Ranking: 22nd, -1 vs. consensus (21st)
– Venue: Mac Jones has averaged 2.8 more fantasy points per game at home than on the road the last two and a half seasons.
+ Efficiency: Jones has thrown just 7 touchdowns but has 10.88 expected passing touchdowns in 2022, and that 3.88-touchdown shortfall should regress positively the rest of the season.
+ Opponent: The Raiders have increased expected passing touchdowns by 0.25 per game in 2022, fifth most in football.
Taylor Heinicke, Commanders vs. Giants (29 degrees and clear)
Week 15 Positional Ranking: 24th, -1 vs. consensus (23rd)
– Volume: Cold temperatures will likely skew the Commanders’ pass/run balance toward the run.
Week 15 Start/Sit: Running Backs
David Montgomery, Bears vs. Eagles (29 degrees with moderate forecasted winds and partly cloudy)
Week 15 Positional Ranking: 19th, +1 vs. consensus (20th)
+ Volume: I am projecting David Montgomery for 18.8 carries + targets this week, 10th at his position (he has averaged 19.3 carries + targets since Week 11 with Khalil Herbert on injured reserve).
+ Volume: Cold temperatures and moderate forecasted winds will likely skew the Bears’ pass/run balance toward the run.
Brian Robinson, Commanders vs. Giants (29 degrees and clear)
Week 15 Positional Ranking: 21st, +1 vs. consensus (22nd)
+ Volume: I am projecting Brian Robinson for 17.8 carries + targets this week, tied for 16th at his position (he has averaged 18.4 carries + targets since he became the starter in Week 6).
+ Volume: Cold temperatures will likely skew the Commanders’ pass/run balance toward the run.
D’Onta Foreman, Panthers vs. Steelers (39 degrees and clear)
Week 15 Positional Ranking: 24th, +3 vs. consensus (27th)
+ Volume: I am projecting D’Onta Foreman for 17.3 carries + targets this week, 20th at his position (he has averaged 20.6 carries + targets since the team traded Christian McCaffrey before Week 7).
Latavius Murray, Broncos vs. Cardinals (43 degrees and partly cloudy)
Week 15 Positional Ranking: 25th, +3 vs. consensus (28th)
+ Opponent: The Cardinals have increased expected rushing touchdowns by 0.27 per game in 2022, fifth most in football.
Devin Singletary, Bills vs. Dolphins (29 degrees with a 60% chance of snow)
Week 15 Positional Ranking: 31st, +1 vs. consensus (32nd)
+ Volume: Cold temperatures and a 60% chance of snow will likely skew the Bills’ pass/run balance toward the run.
+ Opponent: The Dolphins have increased expected rushing touchdowns by 0.22 per game in 2022, tied for sixth most in football.
AJ Dillon, Packers vs. Rams (11 degrees with a 63% chance of light snow)
Week 15 Positional Ranking: 32nd, +1 vs. consensus (33rd)
+ Volume: Extremely cold temperatures and a 63% chance of light snow will likely skew the Packers’ pass/run balance toward the run.
+ Efficiency: AJ Dillon has just 3 touchdowns but has 4.39 expected rushing and receiving touchdowns in 2022, and that 1.39-touchdown shortfall should regress positively the rest of the season.
Gus Edwards, Ravens at Browns (34 degrees with moderate winds and a 49% chance of rain or snow)
Week 15 Positional Ranking: 37th, +2 vs. consensus (39th)
+ Volume: Cold temperatures, moderate forecasted winds, and a 49% chance of rain or snow will likely skew the Ravens’ pass/run balance toward the run.
Kareem Hunt, Browns vs. Ravens (34 degrees with moderate winds and a 49% chance of rain or snow)
Week 15 Positional Ranking: 40th, +2 vs. consensus (42nd)
+ Volume: Cold temperatures, moderate forecasted winds, and a 49% chance of rain or snow will likely skew the Browns’ pass/run balance toward the run.
Jordan Mason, 49ers at Seahawks (40 degrees and clear)
Week 15 Positional Ranking: 48th, +2 vs. consensus (50th)
+ Opponent: The Seahawks have increased expected rushing touchdowns by 0.32 per game in 2022, fourth most in football.
Boston Scott, Eagles at Bears (29 degrees with moderate forecasted winds and partly cloudy)
Week 15 Positional Ranking: 50th, +10 vs. consensus (60th)
+ Volume: Cold temperatures and moderate forecasted winds will likely skew the Eagles’ pass/run balance toward the run.
+ Opponent: The Bears have increased expected rushing touchdowns by 0.50 per game in 2022, second most in football.
Zonovan Knight, Jets vs. Lions (34 degrees and clear)
Week 15 Positional Ranking: 22nd, -4 vs. consensus (18th)
– Volume: I am projecting Zonovan Knight for 16.5 carries + targets this week, 24th at his position (he has averaged 18.7 carries + targets since he first played in Week 12 but faces increased backfield competition from a healthy Michael Carter).
+ Opponent: The Lions have increased expected rushing touchdowns by 0.18 per game since Week 11, dramatically down from their 0.55 average in 2022 but still seventh most in football.
J.K. Dobbins, Ravens at Browns (34 degrees with moderate winds and a 49% chance of rain or snow)
Week 15 Positional Ranking: 26th, -5 vs. consensus (21st)
– Volume: I am projecting J.K. Dobbins for 11.2 carries + targets this week, 37th at his position (he has averaged 12.3 carries + targets in four healthy games this season).
+ Volume: Cold temperatures, moderate forecasted winds, and a 49% chance of rain or snow will likely skew the Ravens’ pass/run balance toward the run.
Jamaal Williams, Lions at Jets (34 degrees and clear)
Week 15 Positional Ranking: 27th, -3 vs. consensus (24th)
– Opponent: The Jets have decreased expected rushing touchdowns by 0.24 per game in 2022, sixth most in football.
Samaje Perine, Bengals at Bucs (62 degrees and cloudy)
Week 15 Positional Ranking: 41st, -3 vs. consensus (38th)
– Efficiency: Samaje Perine has 6 touchdowns but has just 3.28 expected rushing and receiving touchdowns in 2022, and that 2.72-touchdown surplus should regress negatively the rest of the season.
– Opponent: The Bucs have decreased expected rushing touchdowns by 0.23 per game in 2022, seventh most in football.
Joshua Kelley, Chargers vs. Titans (Dome)
Week 15 Positional Ranking: 55th, -1 vs. consensus (54th)
– Opponent: The Titans have decreased expected rushing touchdowns by 0.32 per game in 2022, fourth most in football.
Week 15 Start/Sit: Wide Receivers
Mike Evans, Bucs vs. Bengals (62 degrees and cloudy)
Week 15 Positional Ranking: 23rd, +1 vs. consensus (24th)
+ Efficiency: Mike Evans has caught just 3 touchdowns but has 5.08 expected receiving touchdowns in 2022, and that 2.08-touchdown shortfall should regress positively the rest of the season.
Michael Pittman, Colts at Vikings (Dome)
Week 15 Positional Ranking: 25th, +2 vs. consensus (27th)
+ Volume: I am projecting Michael Pittman for 9.5 targets this week, tied for ninth at his position (he has averaged 8.9 targets in 2022).
Michael Gallup, Cowboys at Jaguars (48 degrees and partly cloudy)
Week 15 Positional Ranking: 38th, +2 vs. consensus (40th)
+ Opponent: The Jaguars have increased expected passing touchdowns by 0.27 per game in 2022, fourth most in football.
Elijah Moore, Jets vs. Lions (34 degrees and clear)
Week 15 Positional Ranking: 40th, +1 vs. consensus (41st)
+ Opponent: The Lions have increased expected passing touchdowns by 0.32 per game in 2022, second most in football.
Chris Moore, Texans vs. Chiefs (Dome)
Week 15 Positional Ranking: 46th, +2 vs. consensus (48th)
+ Opponent: The Chiefs have increased expected passing touchdowns by 0.44 per game in 2022, the most in football.
Tutu Atwell, Rams at Packers (11 degrees with a 63% chance of light snow)
Week 15 Positional Ranking: 64th, +3 vs. consensus (67th)
+ Volume: I am projecting Tutu Atwell for 5.2 targets this week, tied for 54th at his position (he has averaged 5.3 targets since Week 12).
– Volume: Extremely cold temperatures and a 63% chance of light snow will likely skew the Rams’ pass/run balance toward the run.
Christian Watson, Packers vs. Rams (11 degrees with a 63% chance of light snow)
Week 15 Positional Ranking: 24th, -2 vs. consensus (22nd)
– Volume: Extremely cold temperatures and a 63% chance of light snow will likely skew the Packers’ pass/run balance toward the run.
– Efficiency: Christian Watson has caught 7 touchdowns but has just 2.48 expected receiving touchdowns in 2022, and that position-leading 4.52-touchdown surplus should regress negatively the rest of the season.
Jerry Jeudy, Broncos vs. Cardinals (43 degrees and partly cloudy)
Week 15 Positional Ranking: 26th, -1 vs. consensus (25th)
– Efficiency: Jerry Jeudy has caught 6 touchdowns but has just 3.72 expected receiving touchdowns in 2022, and that 2.28-touchdown surplus should regress negatively the rest of the season.
+ Opponent: The Cardinals have increased expected passing touchdowns by 0.17 per game in 2022, seventh most in football.
JuJu Smith-Schuster, Chiefs at Texans (Dome)
Week 15 Positional Ranking: 27th, -1 vs. consensus (26th)
– Volume: I am projecting JuJu Smith-Schuster for 6.7 targets this week, 33rd at his position (he has averaged 6.8 targets in 2022).
– Opponent: The Texans have decreased expected passing touchdowns by 0.18 per game in 2022, tied for seventh most in football.
Marquise Brown, Cardinals at Broncos (43 degrees and partly cloudy)
Week 15 Positional Ranking: 29th, -1 vs. consensus (28th)
– Opponent: The Broncos have decreased expected passing touchdowns by 0.37 per game in 2022, the most in football.
Zay Jones, Jaguars vs. Cowboys (48 degrees and partly cloudy)
Week 15 Positional Ranking: 30th, -1 vs. consensus (29th)
– Opponent: The Cowboys have decreased expected passing touchdowns by 0.32 per game in 2022, third most in football.
+ Efficiency: Zay Jones has caught just 2 touchdowns but has 4.52 expected receiving touchdowns in 2022, and that 2.52-touchdown shortfall should regress positively the rest of the season.
Diontae Johnson, Steelers at Panthers (39 degrees and clear)
Week 15 Positional Ranking: 32nd, -1 vs. consensus (31st)
– Opponent: The Panthers have decreased expected passing touchdowns by 0.18 per game in 2022, tied for seventh most in football.
Donovan Peoples-Jones, Browns vs. Ravens (34 degrees with moderate winds and a 49% chance of rain or snow)
Week 15 Positional Ranking: 33rd, -1 vs. consensus (32nd)
– Volume: Cold temperatures, moderate forecasted winds, and a 49% chance of rain or snow will likely skew the Browns’ pass/run balance toward the run.
Allen Lazard, Packers vs. Rams (11 degrees with a 63% chance of light snow)
Week 15 Positional Ranking: 34th, -1 vs. consensus (33rd)
– Volume: Extremely cold temperatures and a 63% chance of light snow will likely skew the Packers’ pass/run balance toward the run.
George Pickens, Steelers at Panthers (39 degrees and clear)
Week 15 Positional Ranking: 35th, -1 vs. consensus (34th)
– Opponent: The Panthers have decreased expected passing touchdowns by 0.18 per game in 2022, tied for seventh most in football.
Adam Thielen, Vikings vs. Colts (Dome)
Week 15 Positional Ranking: 36th, -1 vs. consensus (35th)
– Opponent: The Colts have decreased expected passing touchdowns by 0.24 per game in 2022, fifth most in football.
Joshua Palmer, Chargers vs. Titans (Dome)
Week 15 Positional Ranking: 39th, -2 vs. consensus (37th)
– Volume: I am projecting Joshua Palmer for 5.3 targets this week, tied for 51st at his position (he has averaged 7.7 targets in 2022 but saw just 6 targets in his first full game alongside both Mike Williams and Keenan Allen in Week 14).
+ Opponent: The Titans have increased expected passing touchdowns by 0.29 per game in 2022, third most in football.
Darius Slayton, Giants at Commanders (29 degrees and clear)
Week 15 Positional Ranking: 42nd, -3 vs. consensus (39th)
– Volume: Cold temperatures will likely skew the Giants’ pass/run balance toward the run.
DJ Chark, Lions at Jets (34 degrees and clear)
Week 15 Positional Ranking: 43rd, -1 vs. consensus (42nd)
– Opponent: The Jets have decreased expected passing touchdowns by 0.36 per game in 2022, second most in football.
Mack Hollins, Raiders vs. Patriots (Dome)
Week 15 Positional Ranking: 45th, -1 vs. consensus (44th)
– Opponent: The Patriots have decreased expected passing touchdowns by 0.18 per game in 2022, tied for seventh most in football.
Van Jefferson, Rams at Packers (11 degrees with a 63% chance of light snow)
Week 15 Positional Ranking: 50th, -4 vs. consensus (46th)
– Volume: Extremely cold temperatures and a 63% chance of light snow will likely skew the Rams’ pass/run balance toward the run.
Demarcus Robinson, Ravens at Browns (34 degrees with moderate winds and a 49% chance of rain or snow)
Week 15 Positional Ranking: 52nd, -3 vs. consensus (49th)
– Volume: Cold temperatures, moderate forecasted winds and a 49% chance of rain or snow will likely skew the Ravens’ pass/run balance toward the run.
+ Efficiency: Demarcus Robinson has caught just 1 touchdown but has 2.56 expected receiving touchdowns in 2022, and that 1.56-touchdown shortfall should regress positively the rest of the season.
Jahan Dotson, Commanders vs. Giants (29 degrees and clear)
Week 15 Positional Ranking: 53rd, -3 vs. consensus (50th)
– Volume: Cold temperatures will likely skew the Commanders’ pass/run balance toward the run.
– Efficiency: Jahan Dotson has caught 5 touchdowns but has just 1.83 expected receiving touchdowns in 2022, and that 3.17-touchdown surplus should regress negatively the rest of the season.
Chase Claypool, Bears vs. Eagles (29 degrees with moderate forecasted winds and partly cloudy)
Week 15 Positional Ranking: 54th, -3 vs. consensus (51st)
– Volume: Cold temperatures and moderate forecasted winds will likely skew the Bears’ pass/run balance toward the run.
– Opponent: James Bradberry and Darius Slay have allowed just 45% and 51% catch rates on their targets this season, second and third lowest among cornerbacks with 300 or more routes in coverage.
– Opponent: The Eagles have decreased expected passing touchdowns by 0.18 per game in 2022, tied for seventh most in football.
Week 15 Start/Sit: Tight Ends
Greg Dulcich, Broncos vs. Cardinals (43 degrees and partly cloudy)
Week 15 Positional Ranking: 6th, +1 vs. consensus (7th)
+ Opponent: The Cardinals have allowed 15.0 average fantasy points per game to tight ends in 2022, the most in football.
+ Opponent: The Cardinals have increased expected passing touchdowns by 0.17 per game in 2022, seventh most in football.
Gerald Everett, Chargers vs. Titans (Dome)
Week 15 Positional Ranking: 8th, +1 vs. consensus (9th)
+ Efficiency: Gerald Everett has caught just 2 touchdowns but has 3.97 expected receiving touchdowns in 2022, and that second biggest 1.97-touchdown shortfall should regress positively the rest of the season.
+ Opponent: The Titans have allowed 12.0 average fantasy points per game to tight ends in 2022, third most in football.
+ Opponent: The Titans have increased expected passing touchdowns by 0.29 per game in 2022, third most in football.
Tyler Conklin, Jets vs. Lions (34 degrees and clear)
Week 15 Positional Ranking: 13th, +1 vs. consensus (14th)
+ Opponent: The Lions have allowed 11.7 average fantasy points per game to tight ends in 2022, tied for fourth most in football.
+ Opponent: The Lions have increased expected passing touchdowns by 0.32 per game in 2022, second most in football.
Jelani Woods, Colts at Vikings (Dome)
Week 15 Positional Ranking: 28th, +1 vs. consensus (29th)
+ Volume: I am projecting Jelani Woods for 4.1 targets this week, 18th at his position (he followed up his 9-target breakout from Week 12 with 4 targets in Week 13, his second-highest total of the season).
– Efficiency: Jelani Woods has caught 3 touchdowns but has just 1.32 expected receiving touchdowns in 2022, and that fifth biggest 1.68-touchdown surplus should regress negatively the rest of the season.
Adam Trautman, Saints vs. Falcons (Dome)
Week 15 Positional Ranking: 29th, +10 vs. consensus (39th — this reflects uncertainty of whether Juwan Johnson will play)
+ Volume: I am projecting Adam Trautman for 3.8 targets this week — assuming Juwan Johnson is out — tied for 22nd at his position (he had 3 targets and played a season-high 80% snap share in Week 13 with Juwan Johnson out).
Evan Engram, Jaguars vs. Cowboys (48 degrees and partly cloudy)
Week 15 Positional Ranking: 11th, -1 vs. consensus (10th)
– Efficiency: Evan Engram has caught 4 touchdowns but has just 2.89 expected receiving touchdowns in 2022, and that 1.11-touchdown surplus should regress negatively the rest of the season.
– Opponent: The Cowboys have allowed 6.3 average fantasy points per game to tight ends in 2022, tied for the fewest in football.
– Opponent: The Cowboys have decreased expected passing touchdowns by 0.32 per game in 2022, third most in football.
Dawson Knox, Bills vs. Dolphins (29 degrees with a 60% chance of snow)
Week 15 Positional Ranking: 14th, -3 vs. consensus (11th)
– Volume: I am projecting Dawson Knox for 4.6 targets this week, 15th at his position (he has averaged 4.2 targets in 2022).
– Volume: Cold temperatures and a 60% chance of snow will likely skew the Bills’ pass/run balance toward the run.
+ Opponent: The Dolphins have allowed 11.7 average fantasy points per game to tight ends in 2022, tied for fourth most in football.
Cole Kmet, Bears vs. Eagles (29 degrees with moderate forecasted winds and partly cloudy)
Week 15 Positional Ranking: 15th, -3 vs. consensus (12th)
– Volume: Cold temperatures and moderate forecasted winds will likely skew the Bears’ pass/run balance toward the run.
– Efficiency: Cole Kmet has caught 5 touchdowns but has just 2.11 expected receiving touchdowns in 2022, and that second biggest 3.89-touchdown surplus should regress negatively the rest of the season.
– Opponent: The Eagles have decreased expected passing touchdowns by 0.18 per game in 2022, tied for seventh most in football.
Chigoziem Okonkwo, Titans at Chargers (Dome)
Week 15 Positional Ranking: 16th, -3 vs. consensus (13th)
– Volume: I am projecting Chigoziem Okonkwo for 4.0 targets this week, tied for 19th at his position (he has averaged 4.5 targets since he reached his current snap share standard in Week 11).
+ Opponent: The Chargers have increased expected passing touchdowns by 0.16 per game in 2022, eighth most in football.
Tyler Higbee, Rams at Packers (11 degrees with a 63% chance of light snow)
Week 15 Positional Ranking: 19th, -2 vs. consensus (17th)
– Volume: Extremely cold temperatures and a 63% chance of light snow will likely skew the Rams’ pass/run balance toward the run.
+ Efficiency: Tyler Higbee has not caught a touchdown but has 3.00 expected receiving touchdowns in 2022, and that position-leading 3.00-touchdown shortfall should regress positively the rest of the season.
Noah Fant, Seahawks vs. 49ers (40 degrees and clear)
Week 15 Positional Ranking: 22nd, -3 vs. consensus (19th)
– Opponent: The 49ers have allowed 6.7 average fantasy points per game to tight ends in 2022, tied for fourth fewest in football.
– Opponent: The 49ers have decreased expected passing touchdowns by 0.27 per game in 2022, fourth most in football.
Daniel Bellinger, Giants at Commanders (29 degrees and clear)
Week 15 Positional Ranking: 24th, -1 vs. consensus (23rd)
– Volume: Cold temperatures will likely skew the Giants’ pass/run balance toward the run.
– Efficiency: Daniel Bellinger has caught 2 touchdowns but has just 1.00 expected receiving touchdowns in 2022, and that 1.00-touchdown surplus should regress negatively the rest of the season.
– Opponent: The Commanders have allowed 6.3 average fantasy points per game to tight ends in 2022, tied for the fewest in football.
Robert Tonyan, Packers vs. Rams (11 degrees with a 63% chance of light snow)
Week 15 Positional Ranking: 25th, -1 vs. consensus (24th)
– Volume: Extremely cold temperatures and a 63% chance of light snow will likely skew the Packers’ pass/run balance toward the run.
Mike Gesicki, Dolphins at Bills (29 degrees with a 60% chance of snow)
Week 15 Positional Ranking: 26th, -1 vs. consensus (25th)
– Volume: Cold temperatures and a 60% chance of snow will likely skew the Dolphins’ pass/run balance toward the run.
– Opponent: The Bills have allowed 6.8 average fantasy points per game to tight ends in 2022, sixth fewest in football.
Logan Thomas, Commanders vs. Giants (29 degrees and clear)
Week 15 Positional Ranking: 27th, -1 vs. consensus (26th)
– Volume: Cold temperatures will likely skew the Commanders’ pass/run balance toward the run.
+ Efficiency: Logan Thomas has caught just 1 touchdown but has 2.43 expected receiving touchdowns in 2022, and that fourth biggest 1.43-touchdown shortfall should regress positively the rest of the season.
Trey McBride, Cardinals at Broncos (43 degrees and partly cloudy)
Week 15 Positional Ranking: 32nd, -4 vs. consensus (28th)
– Opponent: The Broncos have decreased expected passing touchdowns by 0.37 per game in 2022, the most in football.
