Mojo Spotlight: Going Short

Finally, you can turn your sports knowledge into real cash by investing in an athlete’s entire career. Prices rise and fall with every hit, huddle, and headline — and you can buy and sell instantly or hold for as long as you want. Three times a week, FTN will feature a player and his Mojo value — is it time to buy, sell, hold or short? Click here to get in on the Mojo action.

I have really enjoyed the partnership between Mojo and FTNFantasy. It has been fascinating to track the volatility of stock prices for NFL players, particularly on a week-to-week basis. There have been some huge price swings, leading to tremendous buying opportunities for all investors. 

Today, I am going to take a look at the “dark” side of player investing: short-selling. 

It is always fun to root for a positive outlook. It is always fun to root for a player to perform, as opposed to rooting against their production. However, there are some golden opportunities to increase your Mojo portfolio value if you are simply willing to bet against certain players. 

Here are three quarterbacks that I am “going short” on in Week 15.  

Tua Tagovailoa, QB, Miami Dolphins

It appears the clock has struck midnight on Tua Tagovailoa’s season. In Weeks 8-10, Tagovailoa posted three consecutive games with three touchdowns and no interceptions. Those performances equated to the overall QB1, QB4 and QB3. However, Tagovailoa has struggled greatly in the last two weeks, facing much stronger defenses in San Francisco and the Los Angeles Chargers. 

This week, Tagovailoa heads to Buffalo to face a Bills team that is laser-focused on payback. Buffalo lost 21-19 at Miami, in a game where Tagovailoa only threw for 186 yards. He will face a Buffalo defense that ranks fourth overall in DVOA. 

Tagovailoa’s completion percentage has dropped each of the last four games, from 78.1% to 35.7%. Miami wide receiver Tyreek Hill left last week’s game with an ankle injury, and while that will not keep him out of this critical AFC East battle, it could limit his explosiveness in poor projected weather conditions. 

Tagovailoa’s Mojo price has seen a strong boost over the course of this season. As an early-season MVP candidate, his share price hit a career high of $41.38 early this month. However, after an Oct. 5 concussion, Tagovailoa’s share price hovered as low as $29.43 per share. There is certainly room for regression, especially if his accuracy problems linger. 

I’m “Going Short” on Tua Tagovailoa, starting with a rough matchup against Buffalo in Week 15. 

Tom Brady, QB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Two things are certain about Tom Brady: He is the greatest quarterback of all-time, and he should have retired after last season. 

Brady has struggled all season long, and with the exception of a few late-game drives against prevent defenses, he hasn’t maintained production or efficiency. He ranks fourth among all quarterbacks in pass attempts (579) and passing yards (3585), but just 33rd in yards per attempt (6.2). He has also completely lost a connection with leading wideout Mike Evans, who hasn’t crested 60 yards in five games. 

Brady’s Mojo price is currently at $172.40 per share but dropped as low as $165.01 per share at the end of last season. The Buccaneers remaining schedule includes battles against a hot Cincinnati team and an underrated Panthers secondary. 

I don’t project a late-season rally for Tampa Bay, especially for an offense that ranks near the bottom of the league in rushing efficiency. Brady’s struggles will continue, especially at the end of the season when he annually slowed down as a post 40-year-old quarterback. 

There is surprising value in fading the G.O.A.T. over the remainder of the 2022 season. It’s hard to see Brady actually add value to his Mojo stock price in a struggling Tampa Bay offense. 

Jared Goff, QB, Detroit Lions

Jared Goff continues to find ways to produce regardless of head coach, team or available offensive weapons. The 28-year-old veteran signal-caller has seen his Mojo price rise after consecutive QB4 finishes and has climbed almost $9 in the last month. 

However, Goff will now be on the road for consecutive matchups against the Jets and Panthers. Both teams feature strong defenses that should be able to provide consistent pressure on Goff. While Goff ranks top-10 among quarterbacks in yards per attempt and overall accuracy, he still ranks among the worst NFL quarterbacks in pressured completion percentage. The Jets rank fifth in the league in sacks per game, while the Panthers rank eighth overall in sacks per game over the last three weeks. 

Now is the perfect time to “Go Short” on a quarterback that has risen an unsustainable 18.3% over the past month. Goff is one of my favorite short sells at Mojo.