Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Fantasy football draft season has arrived, and it’s time to mark your 2022 cheat sheets with your favorite targets in each round.
You’ve come to the right spot. This article will review the best picks in each round for your fantasy football draft strategy in 2022. Average draft position data comes from FTN’s Underdog ADP tool.
(Check out the worst fantasy pick by round.)
Best Pick in Round 1: Christian McCaffrey, RB, Carolina Panthers
The longer summer has gone on, the more Christian McCaffrey has crept up draft boards. He’s the moon-shot league-winner you want on your roster. If you’re drafting first, take CMC. If he’s on the board and you’re on the clock, take CMC.
The craziest CMC stat (from the article linked above):
Since Week 8 of the 2018 season, McCaffrey has been the best fantasy football player we’ve seen in 20 years.
In games in which McCaffrey has played at least 30 snaps, here are his ridiculous fantasy stats in PPR leagues:
- Top-12 fantasy RB 91% of the time
- Top-5 fantasy RB 75% of the time
- Top-3 fantasy RB 60% of the time
- Finishes outside of the top-15: Once (!) In 32 games
Best Pick in Round 2: Saquon Barkley, RB, New York Giants
Saquon Barkley, who produced as the overall fantasy RB1 during his 2018 rookie year before an RB11 finish in 2019, has played only 15 games over the last two years, finishing as a top-12 RB in just three of them and a top-24 RB in only seven. So which Barkley is legit — the early-career version, or the oft-hurt one we’ve seen recently?
As FTN’s Adam Pfeifer revealed in his coaches and coordinators series for the New York Giants, the addition of Brian Daboll (formerly with the Bills) as head coach and Mike Kafka (formerly with the Chiefs) as offensive coordinator are legitimate reasons to have hope for the Giants in 2022, Daniel Jones be damned. Pfeifer pointed out Barkley saw a stacked box on 28% of his rush attempts last year, while Devin Singletary (14%) and Clyde Edwards-Helaire (14%) only faced such stiff competition on half as many of their attempts. A new-look Giants offense could unlock big holes for Barkley.
As an upside chaser (which you should be), there’s really no better player to chase in this range than Barkley. Rewind a few months ago, and he was even going in the third round. The rise in ADP is legit, and he’s still a good pick in Round 2. Barkley is one of the few candidates to finish as the 2022 overall fantasy RB1, which is not easy to find once you exit Round 1.
Best Pick in Round 3: A.J. Brown, WR, Philadelphia Eagles
A.J. Brown landed in a new home in Philadelphia, moving him from the second-run-heaviest offensive in the league (Titans, 48.8%) to the first (Eagles, 49.9%). But he thrived on low volume in Tennessee, and there’s no reason to think that won’t be the case again in Philly.
There’s also reason to believe the Eagles will pass more in 2022. The team invested a first-round pick in a WR in 2021 (DeVonta Smith), traded their first-round pick in 2022 for another WR (Brown) and have a top-10 pass-catching TE in the league (Dallas Goedert) and a crowded RB room.
Additionally, all reports out of Eagles training camp are that Jalen Hurts just can’t stop targeting Brown.
Brown had a 28% target market share last year (seventh in the NFL), and 45% of his team’s air yards (second in the NFL behind Justin Jefferson).
Brown is a top-10 fantasy WR who you can snag in the third round.
Best Pick in Round 4: Terry McLaurin, WR, Washington Commanders
Terry McLaurin has suffered through brutal QB play to start his career, yet he’s still averaged over 1,000 yards per season and is clearly a top-15 talent at the position. And while Carson Wentz is far from a great QB, he is certainly the best McLaurin has ever played with.
Check out this incredible stat from Adam Pfeifer’s breakdown of McLaurin vs. DJ Moore: “Just 71.5% of Taylor Heinicke’s passes were deemed on target last season, the seventh-lowest rate among quarterbacks with 100 dropbacks. No player in the NFL saw more contested targets than McLaurin this past season (41), though he still hauled in 22 of those targets for a league-lead in terms of contested catches.”
Wentz was good enough to propel Michael Pittman to 88 receptions, 1,082 yards and 6 TDs last year for an overall WR18 finish. Those stats align perfectly with McLaurin’s career averages, making it a fair projection for the fourth-round pick. McLaurin is one of the safest fantasy WR2s on the board with legitimate potential to push up into the top 10-12 range.
Best Pick in Round 5: Chris Godwin, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Round 5 is loaded with players you want. If I could, I’d trade down from Round 4 to double up in Round 5 and get extra picks later, too.
This round features Brandin Cooks, George Kittle, DK Metcalf, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Rashod Bateman, Darnell Mooney, Chris Godwin and Amon-Ra St. Brown.
You can’t go wrong with any of those picks. But out of the bunch, give me Godwin, as he’s really a Round 3 talent going two rounds later due to injury concerns. He tore his ACL in late December last year — but he’s already back practicing:
Godwin was on track to be a top-12 fantasy WR last year before the injury.
Best Pick in Round 6: Amari Cooper, WR, Cleveland Browns
The questions surrounding Deshaun Watson’s availability have resulted in Amari Cooper being criminally cheap in fantasy drafts. Jeff Ratcliffe’s fantasy football rankings have Cooper in the top-40 — yet he’s being drafted outside of the top 60.
Cooper’s career fantasy finishes: WR20, WR15, WR36, WR19, WR10, WR15, WR27.
Cooper’s ADP in 2022: WR31.
We’re expecting arguably the worst season of Cooper’s career in an offense that has absolutely no other WRs to speak of? The target market share leader last year (Jarvis Landry, 24%) is gone, and no other player on the team saw more than 16% of targets.
Cooper should be a lock for 25%-plus target market share. He’s a low-end fantasy WR2 that only costs low-end WR3 price — and he could produce as a tail-end fantasy WR1 if/when Watson is back on the field.
Best Pick in Round 7: Tom Brady, QB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
People will hype up Trey Lance in this round more than Tom Brady, and it’s not like Lance is a bad pick by any means, but the reason people are drawn to him is because of the upside potential he brings.
Brady might feel like a boring pick, but even at a geriatric 45, he still possesses upside. In fact, he’s oozing with it. He finished last year as the No. 2 QB overall after posting a top-eight finish in 2020.
No Antonio Brown and no Rob Gronkowski is a buzzkill, but the Buccaneers still have Mike Evans and Chris Godwin and did an incredible job reloading by adding Julio Jones and Russell Gage. And the TE duo of Cameron Brate and Kyle Rudolph will be legitimate in the red zone (though completely useless between the 20s).
Best Pick in Round 8: Rashaad Penny, RB, Seattle Seahawks
Perhaps the first controversial name on this list, Rashaad Penny is an excellent pick in Round 8 as the overall RB30 coming off draft boards.
Yes, his month-long streak of success to cap 2021 is a small sample size, but whew boy was it impressive. He finished as a top-10 fantasy RB in four of his final five games, include three games in the top five. No RB had more rushing yards than Penny over the final month of the season as he ripped off four games with over 130 yards on the ground.
Yes, Seattle has no QB to speak of, and yes, they drafted a Day 2 RB in Kenneth Walker, but there’s still a solid chance Penny (a former first-round pick that spent the early part of his career injured) is still the best RB on the team. There are not many RBs with top-15 upside left in Round 8, but Penny is one of them.
Best Pick in Round 9: Dallas Goedert, TE, Philadelphia Eagles
Dallas Goedert is money in the bank in Round 9. The only TEs with a higher target market share than Goedert last year were Mark Andrews, Darren Waller, George Kittle and Travis Kelce. Goedert is unlikely to repeat as top-five in this department with the arrival of A.J. Brown, but he doesn’t have to for him to pay off his Round 9 ADP.
Goedert was fantastic when given opportunity last year. He turned every air yard he received into 1.29 actual receiving yards — the third-highest rate among TEs in the NFL (minimum 50 targets).
Goedert has finished as a top-10 fantasy TE in two of the past three seasons. His situation has improved and he’s still only the TE8 in cost — going a full round later than T.J. Hockenson and three full rounds later than Dalton Schultz.
Best Pick in Round 10: Tyler Boyd, WR, Cincinnati Bengals
Tyler Boyd is the third WR in arguably the best young passing nucleus in the league with Joe Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins as the centerpieces. Boyd has been WR17, WR17, WR30 and WR31 over the last four years without too much of a role change — but he’s currently going as WR51 in 2022 fantasy drafts.
Yes, Chase and Higgins will command the lion’s share of targets — but Boyd really wasn’t that far behind in 2021. Higgins and Chase each saw about 23.5% target market share, while Boyd was at 19.5%.
Boyd should easily return value on his cheap ADP, and he comes with the added upside in the event Higgins or Chase were to miss time.
Good Dart Throws in the Later Rounds
Below are some of my favorite dart throws in the later rounds, where you’re really shooting for potential upside above all else:
- Justin Fields, QB, Chicago Bears
- Matt Ryan, QB, Indianapolis Colts
- Deshaun Watson, QB, Cleveland Browns (pending updated suspension news)
- Ronald Jones, RB, Kansas City Chiefs
- Alexander Mattison, RB, Minnesota Vikings
- Cole Kmet, TE, Chicago Bears
- Michael Gallup, WR, Dallas Cowboys
- Julio Jones, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- K.J. Osborn, WR, Minnesota Vikings
- Kenneth Gainwell, RB, Philadelphia Eagles
- DJ Chark, WR, Detroit Lions
- Brian Robinson, RB, Washington Commanders
