Which Quarterbacks Fared the Best in Fantasy When Favored/Underdogs?

We’re continuing our run through the positions with a look at which players perform best when favored or when playing as the underdog.

This week, we’re taking a look at QBs. We’ve already seen which RBs performed best when favored and when playing as the underdog, as well as the best WRs when favored and when underdogs.

The basic tenant for this series — players on the favored team do better — remained true for QBs:

Below are the QBs who performed best when playing as either the underdog or the favorite in 2021. Note that this is an imperfect project because it essentially excludes QBs who were always favored (like Tom Brady) or rarely favored (like Jared Goff).

We only included players who had at least three games as both favorites and underdogs.

Best QBs when favored

Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys

Dak Prescott was night-and-day in this study. With the Cowboys sitting at a 10.5 win total for the 2022 season — tied for second-best in the league — this could be a big year for Prescott. If you’re wondering why Prescott’s 2021 campaign felt like a letdown, this stat alone might explain it. 

Russell Wilson, Denver Broncos

Russell Wilson’s move to the Broncos shot their win total up to 10.5, which, as noted above, is tied for second-best in the NFL. He went from one of the worst rosters in the NFL to one of the best — and arguably improved his receiving room in the process, which was clearly a strength in Seattle. Wilson is currently going as a tail-end QB1 and could be a steal by season’s end.

Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers 

It’s always good when your QB scores over 20 PPG regardless of whether they are favored or not. This is why you’ll consistently see Justin Herbert ranked as a top-three fantasy QB this year. Like the two QBs mentioned above, Herbert’s Chargers also have a 10.5 win total line for 2022, setting him up for a massive year while playing as the favorite in most games.

Best QBs when the underdog

Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills

Josh Allen scored an already-ridiculous 23 PPG when favored last year, but that number reached astronomical heights (31.5) when the Bills were underdogs. The Bills are tied for the highest projected win total in the league (11.5), but don’t let that deter you away from the back-to-back overall fantasy QB1 finishes.

Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles

Jalen Hurts saw his PPG bump up to 22.6 when the Eagles were underdogs last year. Philly has a solid projected win total this year (9.5), but we may see these numbers change drastically in 2022 with the Eagles trading for AJ Brown, perhaps signaling that they will air it out more.

Derek Carr, Las Vegas Raiders

Derek Carr’s numbers were “meh” regardless of his situation last year, but there’s much more chatter about Carr heading into 2022 thanks to the addition of Davante Adams. The Raiders are projected to be a team that hovers near .500 (win total set at 8.5), so it’s fair to expect Carr to be an underdog in at least half of his games this year.

Other QBs who performed better when the underdog

• Matthew Stafford
• Kirk Cousins
• Carson Wentz
• Kyler Murray
• Joe Burrow