Which Running Backs Fared the Best in Fantasy When Underdogs?

Wednesday, we took a look at the best RBs in fantasy football when their team is favored. Today, we’re flipping the script and taking a look at the top RBs when playing as the underdog.

Some of the names on this list will surprise you.

Here are the key high-level stats before we get into the names. I took a look at the last 10 years and found that RBs playing on the favored team score roughly 14% more fantasy points per game — or 1.4 points per game.

The biggest difference in production came in the TD rate. RBs on the favored team scored TDs on 3.3% of their opportunity, compared to 2.6% for underdog RBs.

So which RBs were best when playing as the underdog last year? Note that this is an imperfect project because it essentially excludes RBs who were always favored (like Leonard Fournette) or rarely favored (like Saquon Barkley).

Nick Chubb, Cleveland Browns

Nick Chubb scored an impressive 19.6 PPG when playing as an underdog compared to 11.1 when playing as a favorite last year. This runs contrary to what one might have expected for a player known for his rushing ability. Was this just an anomaly of a season? 

Derrick Henry, Tennessee Titans

It’s also a little bit of a surprise to see Derrick Henry on this list. Like Chubb, he’s known much more for his rushing than his receiving, and you’d think a run-first RB would benefit more from being favored. That wasn’t the case for Henry, who scored 26.6 PPG when an underdog last year compared to 19.8 when favored. Pretty, pretty good either way. 

Christian McCaffrey, Carolina Panthers

Christian McCaffrey did not play too many full games last year, but when he was on the field, he scored 2.5 more PPG when the Panthers were underdogs. This could be a byproduct of McCaffrey being used more as a receiver when the Panthers are trailing. And they might be trailing a lot this year — Carolina has an over/under win total of just 5.5, one of the lowest in the league. We’ll see how much, if at all, that rises with Baker Mayfield.

James Conner, Arizona Cardinals 

James Conner scored 2.7 more PPG when the Cardinals were underdogs last year, aided by his boost in receiving work when Chase Edmonds was sidelined for over a month. Conner was rock-solid in both wins and losses, and the Cardinals have an only slightly above-average win total of 9.5 heading into 2022.

Jonathan Taylor, Indianapolis Colts

This one was a little bit of a surprise. Jonathan Taylor scored 23.2 PPG when playing as an underdog compared to 21.1 when favored, but given his goal-line usage (nearly 2x the goal line carries compared to any other RB) and minimal passing work, you’d expect these stats to be reversed. He was phenomenal either way, though, so perhaps this one can be chalked up to variance.