2023 NFL Best Bets and Win Total Over/Unders

Win. Loss. Win. Win. Loss…

Once the NFL releases its week-by-week schedule, all NFL fans partake in trying to assign a win or a loss to each game of their favorite team’s schedule. This exercise is simply speculation, as predicting the strength or weakness of each team is akin to correctly predicting the lottery. However, it is incredibly fun, and is another sign that the NFL season is on the horizon.

The NFL schedule release also means we can dive deeper into projected win totals. Each sportsbook carries their own odds on the over/unders for each NFL team. Just like with the NFL Draft, I will record all my bets on season-long win totals, updating this list over the next few months.

Here are my initial thoughts on team win totals to target for the NFL season. Let’s start off our 2023 offseason bets with three unders.

What Are the NFL Win Total Odds for the 2023 Season?

All odds courtesy DraftKings Sportsbook.

Arizona Cardinals: 4.5 Wins (Under +110, Over -130)
Atlanta Falcons: 8.5 Wins (Under -130, Over +110)
Baltimore Ravens: 9.5 Wins (Under +100, Over -120)
Buffalo Bills: 10.5 Wins (Under +120, Over -140)
Carolina Panthers: 7.5 Wins (Under +115, Over -135)
Chicago Bears: 7.5 Wins (Under +115, Over -135)
Cincinnati Bengals: 11.5 Wins (Under -130, Over +110)
Cleveland Browns: 9.5 Wins (Under -150, Over +130)
Dallas Cowboys: 9.5 Wins (Under +110, Over -130)
Denver Broncos: 8.5 Wins (Under -110, Over -110)
Detroit Lions: 9.5 Wins (Under +100, Over -120)
Green Bay Packers: 7.5 Wins (Under -120, Over +100)
Houston Texans: 6.5 Wins (Under -130, Over +110)
Indianapolis Colts: 6.5 Wins (Under +120, Over -140)
Jacksonville Jaguars: 9.5 Wins (Under +110, Over -130)
Kansas City Chiefs: 11.5 Wins (Under +120, Over -140)
Los Angeles Chargers: 9.5 Wins (Under -110, Over -110)
Los Angeles Rams: 6.5 Wins (Under -110, Over -110)
Las Vegas Raiders: 7.5 Wins (Under -150, Over +130)
Miami Dolphins: 9.5 Wins (Under -120, Over +100)
Minnesota Vikings: 8.5 Wins (Under +100, Over -120)
New England Patriots: 7.5 Wins (Under +100, Over -120)
New Orleans Saints: 9.5 Wins (Under -125, Over +105)
New York Giants: 8.5 Wins (Under -140, Over +120)
New York Jets: 9.5 Wins (Under +110, Over -130)
Philadelphia Eagles: 10.5 Wins (Under +130, Over -150)
Pittsburgh Steelers: 8.5 Wins (Under +110, Over -130)
Seattle Seahawks: 8.5 Wins (Under +110, Over -130)
San Francisco 49ers: 10.5 Wins (Under +100, Over -120)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 6.5 Wins (Under -130, Over +110)
Tennessee Titans: 7.5 Wins (Under -130, Over +110)
Washington Commanders: 6.5 Wins (Under +100, Over -120)

NFL Team Win Totals

Here are my favorite win totals bets for 2023 after the schedule release.

Arizona Cardinals Under 4.5 Wins

(+110, DraftKings Sportsbook)

It is very difficult for me to find five wins on this Cardinals schedule. Quarterback Kyler Murray tore his ACL in Week 14 last season, with a projected rehab timetable of 10 months. If he starts the season on the Physically Unable to Perform list, his earliest return would be Week 5 at the earliest. If Arizona gets off to a poor start, what would be the reason to rush him back? There are still rumors of trading All-Pro wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins, and the Cardinals have done nothing to address the quarterback position, with veteran Colt McCoy currently listed as their starting quarterback.

The Arizona defense was a disaster last year, ranking 30th overall in defensive DVOA per FootballOutsiders. They lost DL Zach Allen (Denver), J.J. Watt (retirement) and CB Byron Murphy (Minnesota), and have the 12th-hardest schedule per Vegas opposing win totals. Their only major draft additions on defense were LB BJ Ojulari (LSU) and CB Garrett Williams, who is still rehabbing a torn ACL.

This number is still available at 5.5 wins at some books, but I love the plus-money value on under 4.5 wins at DraftKings. The Cardinals finished 4-13 last year, now will be without Murray, and have a new head coach and general manager. This sounds like a rebuilding year in Arizona.

Buffalo Bills Under 10.5 Wins

(+120, DraftKings Sportsbook)

I’m worried about the Buffalo Bills.

A 37-12 combined record over the past three seasons has translated to just a 4-3 playoff record with no Super Bowl appearances. There is now uncertainty surrounding WR Stefon Diggs and a quarterback with 39 interceptions and 17 fumbles over the last three campaigns. Wideout Gabe Davis is coming off a massively disappointing season, and the Bills have the second-hardest schedule in the NFL per Vegas opposing win totals. After their Week 13 bye (very late), the Bills end the season at Kansas City, Dallas, at the Chargers, New England and at Miami.

Per our Dan Fornek’s offensive line rankings, the Bills’ line rates as one of the NFL’s worst. Buffalo’s offensive line allowed 180 pressures and 18 sacks last season and will try to improve behind free agent Connor McGovern and rookie O’Cyrus Torrence. On defense, the Bills main pass rusher is 34-year-old Von Miller, who is now projected to miss a substantial part of the season. He underwent surgery on a torn ACL in December and could start the year on the PUP list.

The AFC East is loaded, with the Jets now the betting favorite to actually win the Super Bowl due to the trade for QB Aaron Rodgers. Last season, the Bills split with the Dolphins and both games were decided by three points or less. I could see the Bills regressing this season, and a 10-7 record is within the range of outcomes. At +120, I am too tempted to pass on the Bills Under.

Cincinnati Bengals Under 11.5 Wins

(-130, DraftKings Sportsbook)

If at first you don’t succeed, try, try again.

I picked the Bengals under 10.5 wins last season and felt very confident after a 2-3 start to the season. However, Cincinnati rattled off eight consecutive wins to end the season at 12-4 (their Buffalo game was canceled). The Bengals successfully broke the trend of Super Bowl-losing teams struggling during the following season.

My biggest concern with Cincinnati is their division. Baltimore has completely reloaded, with Lamar Jackson now under contract. Pittsburgh fought its way to a 9-8 record and has fortified their offensive line and secondary. Finally, I expect the Browns to be much improved and quarterback Deshaun Watson to return to the form that produced three consecutive fantasy finishes of QB5 or better. The Ravens split with the Bengals last season (once without Jackson), and the Browns blasted the Bengals 32-13 in Week 8 with Jacoby Brissett under center.

Cincinnati’s out-of-division schedule is very difficult, with Seattle, San Francisco (away), Buffalo, Jacksonville (away) and Kansas City (away) all realistic losses. There are still a ton of questions about this team. Will Joe Mixon return? How will they replace the loss of Eli Apple, Tre Flowers, Jessie Bates and Vonn Bell in the secondary?

Cincinnati plays a first-place schedule and ends the year at Pittsburgh, at Kansas City, and home to rival Cincinnati. I love this number at 11.5 and will gladly pay the juice to earn a win at an 11-6 finish for the Bengals.

Understanding NFL Over/Under Win Total Odds

Never bet on an NFL team’s win total? Doing so isn’t complicated, though there are a few things you should know before placing a wager. Each team’s projected win total comes with specific odds for both the over and under, and that will affect your payout on a potential bet.

Let’s use the Chiefs as an example. Kansas City has -140 odds to go over 11.5 wins and +120 odds to go under 11.5. In order to profit $100 on the Chiefs’ over, you would need to risk $140. A winning $100 bet on Kansas City’s under would result in a $120 profit.

The Chiefs must win at least 12 games in the regular season in order to finish over their win total. Preseason and playoff victories don’t count toward the bet.

Check out the FTN Bets Parlay Calculator to see how much you’d win based on the odds and amount wagered.