Which Wide Receivers Fared the Best in Fantasy When Favored?

Last week, we took a look at which RBs performed best when favored and when playing as the underdog.

This week, we’re putting WRs under the microscope. Here’s the overall lay of the land:

As we saw with RBs, wideouts on the favored team score more fantasy PPG. And also like we saw with RBs, it’s not because of opportunity. The difference is in the TD rate.

Below are the WRs that performed best when playing as the favorite in 2021. Note that this is an imperfect project because it essentially excludes WRs who were always favored (like Mike Evans) or rarely favored (like Amon-Ra St. Brown). We only included players who had at least three games as both favorites and underdogs.

Terry McLaurin, Washington Commanders

Terry McLaurin went nuclear when favored, scoring over 20 fantasy PPG. He dipped all the way down to 10 PPG when playing as the underdog. Despite upgrading at QB, the Commanders have a weak win total at just 7.5 this year.

Darnell Mooney, Chicago Bears

The Bears are stuck down at a 6.5-win total for 2022, so this might not be the best news for Darnell Mooney stans (me included). Mooney scored 17.1 PPG when favored compared to 11.6 when playing as the underdog last year. Still, he’s the definite No. 1 in this offense and should have massive volume. 

Tee Higgins, Cincinnati Bengals

Tee Higgins scored 18 PPG when favored compared to 13.1 when the underdog, one of the biggest differences among the notable WRs on this list. And if you’re wondering why everyone loves Higgins in 2022 despite the rise of Ja’Marr Chase: Higgins and Chase had nearly identical target market share last year.

Tyler Lockett, Seattle Seahawks

Tyler Lockett scored 17.3 when favored compared to 12.9 as the underdog. The Seahawks have one of the worst win totals in the NFL, way down at 5.5. It’s a major reason why Lockett is going as about the WR40 in fantasy drafts.

Marquise Brown, Arizona Cardinals

Marquise Brown scored 15.5 as the favorite and 11.1 when the underdog last year — but he’s in an entirely new situation in Arizona for 2022.

Jaylen Waddle, Miami Dolphins

Jaylen Waddle had 17.7 PPG as the favorite and 13.5 PPG as the underdog, but like Brown, Waddle’s situation in 2022 received a major change when the Dolphins traded for Tyreek Hill. 

Stefon Diggs, Buffalo Bills

Stefon Diggs scored 16.7 as the favorite and 13.3 as the underdog last year — but keep in mind the Bills were favored in 14 games and the underdog in only five (counting the postseason).

Brandon Aiyuk, San Francisco 49ers

Brandon Aiyuk was at 10.9 PPG as the favorite but down to 7.5 as the underdog. Unlike some of the other WRs on this list, both of those PPG totals are low. The playing-as-underdog average is dangerously low. And I say that as a huge Aiyuk fan.

DJ Moore, Carolina Panthers

DJ Moore finally received an upgrade at QB, and hopefully it means the Panthers will be favored in a few more games. He scored 15.6 as a favorite last year and saw that dip to 12.5 as an underdog.