Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
The NFL preseason is finally over, which means it’s time to get excited about the upcoming regular season.
However, before we set our sights on the games that really matter, it’s important to recap what we learned this offseason so that we can best prepare for the upcoming year of fantasy football.
AFC North
Baltimore Ravens: Isaiah Likely the No. 3 Option?
Following an extremely impressive preseason, Ravens rookie tight end Isaiah Likely appears to have demanded a significant role in the Baltimore offense this year. Given the Ravens’ unique offensive approach and affinity for multiple tight end sets, it wouldn’t be surprising for Likely to earn significant snaps early in his career and get utilized as a matchup nightmare in the passing game. There were many questions about who the No. 2 receiver was going to be in the Ravens offense this year, but when all is said and done, it may not matter and the rookie tight end may emerge as the true No. 3 option in the passing game.
Cincinnati Bengals: Samaje Perine Remains Joe Mixon’s Handcuff
While some were hoping second-year back Chris Evans would claim the No. 2 role in the Bengals backfield this offseason, it appears Samaje Perine hasn’t forfeited that title just yet. Barring an injury to Joe Mixon, Perine won’t possess any standalone value for fantasy football managers. However, given Mixon’s injury history and massive workload this past season, it wouldn’t be surprising to see him miss a few games in 2022.
Cleveland Browns: Amari Cooper is Going to See A LOT of Targets
Both of Cleveland’s top two options in their passing game – Odell Beckham and Jarvis Landry – are no longer with the team in 2022. Their departures (along with the departure of Austin Hooper) mean plenty of targets are up for grabs in Cleveland this year, and offseason acquisition Amari Cooper seems poised for a large majority of those available targets. Even though Cooper missed two games last year and played in the crowded Cowboys receiver room, he saw a 16% market share and garnered 103 targets. Given the lack of other options in Cleveland this year, it wouldn’t be shocking to see Cooper snag north of 25% of the Browns targets. Even in an uninspiring passing game led by Jacoby Brissett, the volume alone should make Cooper a reliable starter for fantasy football managers.
Pittsburgh Steelers: George Pickens is Inevitable
One of the darlings of the fantasy football offseason this year has been Pittsburgh Steelers rookie receiver George Pickens. Pickens flashed elite potential on multiple occasions this offseason, and the question we need to ask ourselves regarding Pickens isn’t “if” but rather “when.” Pickens has shown the necessary talent to be a dominant NFL receiver early in his career, but the Steelers receiver room is a crowded one, and they may not have a quarterback capable of supporting multiple options in the passing game. Pickens’ time is coming in Pittsburgh, but there’s a high likelihood that he won’t experience the breakout many are hoping for until 2023.
AFC South
Houston Texans: Dameon Pierce is RB1
It’s not often that an NFL coaching staff sits a rookie out of the preseason to reduce wear and tear on their bodies, but Dameon Pierce locked down the RB1 role early enough to get the veteran treatment from the Texans coaching staff. Pierce looks poised to be the lead back in Houston this year with minimal competition for touches, and he should see a full workload as early as Week 1. Whether Houston’s offense is good enough for Pierce to finish the season as an RB1 or even a high-end RB2 remains in question, but if nothing else, the rookie enters 2022 with a high floor based on volume alone.
Indianapolis Colts – Alec Pierce Claiming the WR2 Role is Only a Matter of Time
As it currently stands, second-round rookie Alec Pierce is operating as the No. 3 option in the Colts receiver room. This role alone should get him on the field often given the NFL’s affection for three-receiver sets, but it appears it won’t be long before Pierce takes another step and leap-frogs Parris Campbell and locks down the No. 2 role. Pierce has received nothing but rave reviews all offseason, and in an offense desperately in need of a solid No. 2 alongside Michael Pittman Jr., Pierce should have the opportunity to become a fantasy contributor early on in his career.
Jaguars: Travis Etienne Has League-Winning Upside
After sitting out his entire rookie year due to a foot injury, Travis Etienne looks poised for a breakout in year two. While it sounds like he’ll be sharing the backfield with James Robinson, Etienne is going to be heavily involved in the passing game, and the two backs may be on the field together at certain points throughout the season. The arrow is pointing up in Jacksonville this year, and the combination of an improved offense, a valuable role in the backfield and first-round talent means Etienne could be poised for a massive year.
Tennessee Titans: Treylon Burks Isn’t A.J. Brown… At Least Not Yet
While the Treylon Burks/A.J. Brown comparisons are unfair to Burks, it hasn’t stopped analysts everywhere from making the comparison. Despite the hope for Burks to immediately slot into Brown’s former role in the offense, it appears the rookie has yet to crack the starting lineup. Burks has flashed big-play potential in the preseason, which will make him someone to monitor as the year goes on, but right now it seems unlikely that he’s a fantasy contributor in the early portion of the season.
AFC East
Buffalo Bills: The Backfield Breakdown Will Be Frustrating
When a running back gets selected in the second round of the NFL draft, they’re typically expected to carve out a substantial role early in their career. Despite this, it looks as though James Cook won’t be carving out a workhorse role anytime soon, and he’ll instead be one of many mouths to feed in Buffalo’s backfield. Devin Singletary seems locked in as the team’s starter and early-down specialist, but it looks like Zack Moss will spell him on occasion while Cook sees work in obvious passing situations and in two-minute drills. Drafting the RB1 in Buffalo’s high-octane offense sounds appealing in theory, but the committee approach they’ll utilize this season could leave fantasy managers frustrated on a weekly basis.
New England Patriots: Belichick’s Backfield Shenanigans Are Here to Stay
Rhamondre Stevenson garnered plenty of buzz this offseason after a fantastic camp, but it appears the Patriots backfield will once again prove to be a headache for fantasy managers. While Stevenson has impressed, Damien Harris isn’t going away, and it wouldn’t be shocking to see the latter lead the team in touchdowns once again given his efficiency near the goal line. Throw in the fact that Ty Montgomery appears to have carved out a role for himself as a change-of-pace back, and it looks like this backfield is going to be a committee that’s hard to forecast on a weekly basis.
New York Jets: The Elijah Moore Breakout is Coming
Reports out of Jets camp have been up and down this offseason, but the one player shining brightest this offseason has unquestionably been Elijah Moore. The second-year receiver flashed signs of brilliance last offseason, but concerns around quarterback play and the selection of Garrett Wilson with the 10th overall pick in the draft raised questions about his fantasy stock entering 2022. Based on everything we’ve heard out of Jets camp, though, Moore is the team’s clear No. 1. If the team can get any level of stability at the quarterback position, Moore should have a breakout year.
Miami Dolphins: Tua Tagovailoa Should Have No Problem Supporting Tyreek Hill
Even though Tua Tagovailoa is no Patrick Mahomes, it’s becoming increasingly obvious that he’ll have no problem supporting another dominant fantasy season for Tyreek Hill. Quarterback changes are always a scary proposition for fantasy football wide receivers, but the narrative throughout camp is that Tagovailoa should have no problem getting the ball in the hands of his new No. 1 receiver, and he plans to do so quite often.
AFC West
Denver Broncos: Albert O May be Fools Gold
After garnering plenty of hype this offseason, Albert Okwuegbunam may not wind up providing as much fantasy firepower as many had hoped. The third-year tight end found himself playing deep in the preseason which typically doesn’t bode well for success in fantasy football. Throw in the fact that there are plenty of mouths to feed in Denver and the team spent a day two draft pick on a tight end (Greg Dulcich), and it’s quickly becoming hard to envision Okwuegbunam experiencing a breakout in 2022.
Kansas City Chiefs: Kelce and Mahomes are the Only Chiefs We Can Draft Confidently
While everyone is wondering who the Chiefs WR1 is going to be and what the backfield snaps are going to look like, we may want to fade everyone not named Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce in this offense. All signs indicate Clyde Edwards-Helaire will be the team’s RB1, but he’s yet to impress through two NFL seasons, and it’s clear that this backfield is going to utilize multiple backs with Jerick McKinnon and Isiah Pacheco getting into the mix. At receiver, it looks like JuJu Smith-Schuster is likely the No. 1 option, but it sounds like the entire group is going to see meaningful snaps, and they’ll all be behind Travis Kelce in the pecking order. The Chiefs should ultimately be good enough on offense to support more than just Mahomes and Kelce, but pinpointing who those players will be on a weekly basis could be a nightmare.
Las Vegas Raiders: Josh McDaniels is Bringing the Backfield Headaches to Vegas
Prior to taking the Raiders head coaching job, Josh McDaniels was the offensive coordinator for the Patriots, and early signs indicate he’s bringing New England’s backfield approach to his new team. While Josh Jacobs is still the team’s No. 1 option in the backfield, it remains to be seen just how much work he’ll ultimately get. The Raiders appear to like what they’ve seen out of fourth-round rookie Zamir White, and Ameer Abdullah looks poised to carve out a role in the passing game as well. This is starting to feel more and more like a backfield to avoid at all costs.
Los Angeles Chargers: Still No Complement to Ekeler?
The Chargers made it known this offseason that they want another running back in the mix to help lighten Austin Ekeler’s workload. So far this offseason, it appears they may still be looking. The team was hopeful that fourth-round rookie Isaiah Spiller would be that guy, but he’s yet to impress in camp and is currently battling an ankle injury. Reports out of Chargers camp indicate Joshua Kelley will be the team’s No. 2 option behind Ekeler, but he’s yet to open eyes through his two NFL seasons, which may mean Ekeler is forced into another massive workload in 2022.
