What We Learned in the Fantasy Football Season (AFC)

The fantasy season will officially be over for many after the end of the Detroit and San Francisco game on Monday. The dust hasn’t even settled on the 2024 season, but here at FTNFantasy, we are already looking ahead to 2025. 

One of the best things you can do as a fantasy player is absorb new information and data points and figure out how they will apply going forward. Thankfully, we will take care of that step for you.

Below you’ll find what we learned in the fantasy season for all of the AFC teams in the NFL. Tomorrow you’ll find the NFC version of this article.

What We Learned in the Fantasy Season: AFC

Baltimore Ravens

Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry Can Thrive Together

The initial worry for Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry in fantasy drafts was rooted in the idea that each player would cap the rushing production and touchdown upside of the other. Instead, we saw both players become excellent values at their respective positions.

Jackson paced the quarterback position in fantasy points per game (25.1), while Henry finished as a top-6 running back (18.8 PPR points per game). Henry was once again a force on the ground (305 carries for 1,783 yards and 14 touchdowns), which opened up passing windows for Lamar to post the best passing season of his career (67.9% completion percentage with 3,955 yards and 39 touchdowns with four interceptions). He also posted his second straight season with 130+ carries, 800+ rushing yards and 4+ rushing touchdowns.

Expect Jackson and Henry to each be drafted higher in 2025 given their success as a duo this season and the return of every key offensive player in Baltimore. The only thing that could slow this group down would be offensive coordinator Todd Monken securing a head coaching job somewhere else. 

Buffalo Bills

Josh Allen is Inevitable

Josh Allen will finish no lower than the QB2 in fantasy football and is one of two quarterbacks to average 24.0 or more fantasy points this season. This is despite an offense that spent most of the season lacking a top-end option in the passing attack. 

According to FTN’s Stats Hub, Allen leads all quarterbacks in highlight throw rate (4.8%) despite having just one receiver with more than 50 receptions or 550 receiving yards. Allen continues to provide fantasy value thanks to his ability to post strong rushing numbers (97 carries for 514 yards and 11 touchdowns). Allen is third among quarterbacks in success rate as a rusher (58.8%). 

Allen was being drafted as the QB1 in fantasy and paid off that draft capital. He has become one of the best talent elevators in the NFL and is a lock for fantasy production as long as he can stay effective as a rusher. 

Cincinnati Bengals

Joe Burrow is the Pocket Passer to Target in Drafts

The concerns about Joe Burrow’s wrist kept his ADP in check throughout the drafting season. He rewarded fantasy managers willing to gamble on him with a QB3 finish in fantasy points per game (22.1).

More importantly, Burrow has emerged as the pocket passer to target in fantasy drafts thanks to his wild efficiency and connection with Ja’Marr Chase. Burrow led all quarterbacks in touchdowns (39) and accuracy rate (81.2%) according to FTN’s Stats Hub. He was a top-5 quarterback in air yards (4,082), end-zone touchdowns (21), adjusted completion percentage (81.2%), touchdown rate (7.0%) and highlight throws (21).

Burrow did all of this despite playing behind a very average offensive line that was dealing with injuries throughout 2024. 

There will be questions regarding Burrow in 2025, especially if the team is forced to watch Tee Higgins walk in free agency. But as long as Burrow has Chase, it is hard to bet against him in fantasy. His lack of mobility should once again keep his ADP suppressed, which will make him a value target again next year.

Cleveland Browns

Deshaun Watson is an Energy Vampire

There was hope that 2024 would be the year that Deshaun Watson found a way to justify Cleveland’s trade for him. Instead, Browns fans were once again treated to subpar quarterback play and a season-ending injury. Things weren’t much better for fantasy managers.

Watson made seven starts in 2024 before suffering an Achilles injury. He posted zero games with 200+ passing yards. He had just one game with more than one passing touchdown. The Browns had just one player (Jerry Jeudy) with more than 6.0 fantasy points per game. He was the WR69. 

Even worse, we once again saw a backup quarterback take control of the offense and put up big stats. Jameis Winston took over as the starter from Weeks 8 to 15. He had three 300+ yard performances. During that stretch, Jeudy was the WR3 (21.1 PPG). Both Cedric Tillman (WR26) and Elijah Moore (WR46) also had usable weeks. 

Watson will once again be coming off a major injury in 2025. Given his cap hit if cut ($99.8 million), Watson will assuredly be on the Browns in 2025. We are now another season removed from him being a fantasy-viable quarterback. It will be impossible to trust him (or any of his weapons) in 2025. 

Denver Broncos

Believe in Bo Nix

Many were skeptical of the Denver Broncos after they used a first-round pick to draft Oregon’s Bo Nix in the NFL draft. However, Nix quickly proved Denver was justified while putting together a top-10 quarterback season in fantasy (18.1 PPG).

After Week 5, Nix posted five weeks with 21.0+ fantasy points. He was one of nine quarterbacks to have multiple games of 28+ fantasy points on the year. And he did it all with just one receiver surpassing 500 receiving yards and three receiving touchdowns (Courtland Sutton) and zero threat of a run game.

The Broncos have turned into a highly efficient offense with one of the best offensive lines in the league and a distributor (with plus mobility) under center. This group should continue to improve as they add weapons.

Nix will likely be overlooked once again in fantasy drafts next season. His efficiency as a passer and mobility will make him a solid QB2 with a top-12 upside in the right matchups. 

Houston Texans

C.J. Stroud Isn’t the Lock We Hoped For

C.J. Stroud was drafted as a top-6 quarterback in fantasy despite his lack of mobility thanks to a transcendent rookie season (4,108 passing yards and 23 touchdowns with five interceptions). Optimism was at an all-time high after Houston returned Nico Collins and Tank Dell, added Joe Mixon and Stefon Diggs and got its offensive line healthy.

Unfortunately, Stroud (and Houston’s offense as a whole) struggled mightily and tanked their fantasy value. All three of their receivers missed stretches of the season, but the real issue has been Stroud’s play under pressure. The second-year quarterback has already seen an increase in pressured dropbacks (233 vs. 194 as a rookie) and a huge jump in his pressure-to-sack rate (22.3 vs. 19.6). 

Stroud was also better against pressure as a rookie, completing 52.1% of his passes for 871 yards and three touchdowns with zero interceptions. This season he’s completing just 45.7% of those attempts for 984 yards and five touchdowns with two picks. 

Houston needs to upgrade its offensive line (outside of Laremy Tunsil) to give Stroud time to operate under center. The team will also bring back Mixon and Collins but may be without Dell (knee injury) and Diggs (coming off an ACL and is a free agent). 

None of this is to say that Stroud will be a flop again next season (relative to expectations), but there are reasons to pause before assuming he will continue to take monumental leaps. 

Indianapolis Colts

Good Luck With Anthony Richardson

Fantasy managers gambling on Anthony Richardson’s massive upside in 2024 rolled snake eyes.

Sure, the tantalizing ceiling was there (four games with 21.0+ fantasy points). Unfortunately, the lows were also still prevalent (six games with below 14.0 fantasy points). Richardson once again struggled with injuries and inconsistency (and was benched). According to FTN’s Stats Hub, Richardson had the lowest adjusted completion percentage (60.6%), which was over 10% lower than the next-closest player (Trevor Lawrence). 

Richardson will almost certainly be pushed into a top-6 quarterback pick again thanks to the highlight throws (they do exist!) and his rushing ability. Unfortunately, we just don’t have any reason to believe that he can sustain his high-end performances thanks to his shaky passing ability and his propensity to pick up nagging injuries.

Jacksonville Jaguars

Brian Thomas Jr. is the Future

Brian Thomas Jr. was the fourth wide receiver drafted in the first round of the 2024 NFL Draft. Despite the talent ahead of him (Marvin Harrison Jr., Malik Nabers and Rome Odunze), Thomas had the most impressive season. 

The rookie caught 73 of 112 targets for 1,088 yards and nine touchdowns. The rookie had a strong 21.5% target share and 13.5% opportunity share. According to FTN’s Stats Hub, both marks ranked top 10 among all wide receivers. 

More impressively, Thomas Jr. was able to see a significant jump in production catching passes from Mac Jones after the injury to Trevor Lawrence.

Sure, a lot of those statistics were generated after Christian Kirk and Evan Engram were injured for the season, but it is still telling that Thomas Jr. was able to produce big stats as a rookie with virtually no NFL help around him. 

In 2025, the Jaguars will get Lawrence a new head coach who can create a better offensive environment. There were rumors that the Jaguars were content moving Kirk as a trade piece before his injury. He is a cut candidate this offseason thanks to the $10.7 million Jacksonville can save if they let him walk. Engram ($6.2 million in savings) could also be cut.

Thomas showed that he can function as a team’s top receiver at the NFL level as a rookie. Expect a significant jump in his 2025 ADP next year. Even then, he is worth it. 

Kansas City Chiefs

Xavier Worthy is a Legitimate NFL Weapon

Many viewed Xavier Worthy as a speed merchant after he set the combine 40-yard dash record. However, he showed solid route-running ability paired with his speed during his time at Texas.

It took a few weeks for him to get acclimated to the NFL, but Worthy proved that he can be a weapon in the passing game that happens to be faster than anybody else on the field.

From Week 10 to Week 17, Worthy grabbed 39 of 55 targets for 392 yards and three touchdowns. During that span, he averaged 7.9 targets, 5.6 receptions and 56 receiving yards per game. He competed for targets during that span with Travis Kelce, DeAndre Hopkins and Marquise Brown.

Worthy’s ADP will likely be suppressed next year, especially if Kelce returns. However, he could see a massive role boost now that he understands Kansas City’s offense and the Chiefs staff understands how to best utilize him. 

Las Vegas Raiders

Brock Bowers is a First-Round Pick in 2025

The Brock Bowers hype was completely justified. Bowers had a record-setting rookie season, catching 108 of 114 targets for 1,144 yards and four touchdowns through Week 17. Bowers was an even bigger boon in fantasy, finishing as a top three tight end in points per game (15.5) and total points (250.1). 

Bowers’ excellent route-running and yards-after-catch ability translated perfectly from college to the NFL. Bowers led all tight ends in yards after the catch in his rookie season.

It is rare to see an NFL offense flow through a rookie tight end, but that is exactly what happened in Las Vegas. The Raiders should get a quarterback upgrade this offseason, which would be even better for Bowers in Year 2. 

Given the uncertainty of the tight end position in fantasy, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Bowers work his way into the first round of 2025 fantasy drafts. 

Los Angeles Chargers

Believe in Ladd McConkey

One of the big NFL draft debates would be if the Chargers would draft one of the best offensive linemen in the draft (Joe Alt) or a playmaker for Justin Herbert in the first round (Malik Nabers). Ultimately, the team chose to take Alt and select Georgia’s Ladd McConkey in the second round.

McConkey was an early declare who showed excellent quickness and route-running ability but struggled to produce at Georgia (119 receptions for 1,687 yards and 13 touchdowns in 39 career games). However, the rookie quickly showed that he has the tools to be an excellent NFL wide receiver.

The rookie receiver posted 77 receptions for 1,054 yards and seven touchdowns through the first 17 weeks. McConkey flashed the tools to be a WR1 in fantasy, posting 13 games with at least six targets. He averaged 8.3 targets, 6.7 receptions and 93.7 receiving yards over the final five games of the fantasy season.

The Chargers will certainly add to their pass-catching group this offseason, but McConkey has shown that he can be a reliable option for Herbert in his rookie season. 

Miami Dolphins

De’Von Achane Can Handle the Workload

De’Von Achane was a second-round pick in fantasy drafts over the summer thanks to fantasy managers hoping that his efficiency as a rookie would result in a bigger workload. The managers who took that chance certainly got what they hoped for.

Achane finished 16th among running backs in touches per game (17.2) in 2024. The expanded role as a runner (182 carries compared to 103 in 2024) resulted in less efficiency (4.2 yards per carry vs. 7.8 as a rookie), but his expanded role in the receiving game more than made up for that.

The second-year running back caught 78 passes for 592 yards and six touchdowns as a receiver. Achane finished as the RB7 in fantasy points per game (18.4) and as the RB5 in total fantasy points (276). More importantly, the significant increase in workload didn’t result in an injury for Achane, a concern of many given his lack of size. 

It remains to be seen if Achane will maintain that role in 2025 or if the Dolphins will continue to split their backfield. It won’t be surprising to see Achane climb into the first round of fantasy drafts thanks to his explosive ability and new pass-catching role. It is hard to argue if he does. 

New England Patriots

Drake Maye: Official 2025 Late-Round QB Target

Drake Maye ended up making 11 starts for the Patriots in 2024 after being selected with the third overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. Maye flashed a powerful arm and a willingness to attack defenses down the field in his first season.

More importantly, Maye was able to be fantasy-relevant despite playing behind the NFL’s least-talented offensive line with minimal pass-catching weapons.

Maye was the QB15 in fantasy points per game (17.5) after making his first start in Week 6. He posted five games with at least 18.0 fantasy points and three weeks with 20+ fantasy points. Maye posted respectable passing stats (2,276 yards and 15 touchdowns with 10 interceptions) but was able to stay consistently relative in fantasy thanks to his rushing ability (54 carries for 421 yards and two touchdowns). 

The Patriots have too many holes on their offense to fill in one offseason, so there is a chance that Maye will be discounted again in fantasy next season. Maye’s ability to overcome his supporting cast as a fantasy quarterback should make him enticing at a discount in 2025. 

New York Jets

2025 is Going to Be Messy

2024 didn’t go the way the Jets intended. The offense sputtered and the defense was more porous than anybody could have expected. Aaron Rodgers finished as a back-end QB2 (15.9 fantasy points). Breece Hall was the RB17 (15.5 PPG) despite being a first-round pick. Davante Adams was excellent to close the season, but he capped the upside of Garrett Wilson. 

It seems unlikely that Rodgers will return to the Jets in 2025, and the team can save $29.9 million dollars by choosing to cut Adams. Unfortunately, cutting Rodgers would create $49 million in dead cap hit, making it harder to find a veteran stopgap quarterback.

There are also rumors that Wilson has been frustrated by his tenure with the Jets and could ask for a trade this offseason.

This offense could look dramatically different with a new coaching staff. This season was disappointing for many of the team’s fantasy weapons, and it is hard to imagine that 2025 will be any better, even if the team does decide to retain Adams and Rodgers. 

Pittsburgh Steelers

George Pickens Has WR1 Upside

George Pickens was able to take a significant step in Pittsburgh’s offense after the team traded away Diontae Johnson before the 2024 season. 

Pickens is pacing to set career-highs in targets, receptions and receiving yards despite playing just 13 games (the only time in his career with fewer than 17). Pickens started the year strong with Justin Fields but took a step forward once Russell Wilson was named the starting quarterback. 

There is mutual interest between Wilson and the Steelers to get a longer deal in place. If that happens, then expect Pickens to put together an even better season in 2025.

Tennessee Titans

Finding a Quarterback Will Be Crucial in 2025

Will Levis was a favorite late-round quarterback option for fantasy managers in 2024. That process did not lead to positive results. Levis completed 63.7% of his passes for 1,916 yards with 12 touchdowns and 12 interceptions. The second-year quarterback had a penchant for making baffling decisions that usually resulted in a turnover before being benched at the end of the season.

The Titans will need to find a quarterback to run head coach Brian Callahan’s offense in 2025. Whether that process will mean dipping into the veteran free agent market (Sam Darnold), waiting for a veteran to get cut (Kirk Cousins and Aaron Rodgers), or dipping into the draft (this is a bad class) remains to be seen.

The Titans are in relative no-man’s land in both the NFL and fantasy. They have a solid running back tandem (Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears) running behind a bad offensive line. They have an athletic tight end (Chig Okonkwo) who was non-descript in the passing game until Levis was benched. Calvin Ridley will likely end the year with 1,000 receiving yards but struggled to provide consistency with bad quarterback play. 

There are some interesting pieces on this offense, but as we saw in 2024, there is very little hope for the team if they don’t have a quarterback. Most options should be better than what they were forced to play in 2024.