Week 9 lames: QB troubles tank Cooper, Zeke values vs. Pittsburgh

Each week the Noise highlights nine somewhat un-obvious names who he believes will leave egg on his face. To qualify, each player must be started in at least 50% of Yahoo leagues. Speaking as an accountability advocate, I will post results, whether genius or moronic, the following week using the scoring system shown here (Thresholds – QB: 18 fantasy points, RB: 12 fantasy points, WR: 11 fantasy points, TE: 10 fantasy points). If you’re a member of TEAM HUEVOS, reveal your Week 9 Lames on Twitter @NoisyHuevos.

Lamar Jackson, QB, Baltimore Ravens

(72% started in Yahoo; DK DFS: $6,900)
Matchup: at IND
Vegas line/Total: BAL -3, 44.5

It’s an axiom annoyingly spouted by fantasy “experts” every fantasy football draft season, a warning most novice fantasy players refuse to heed — “Never draft a QB early.” After an MVP season, one in which most virtual gamers scored in the Round 8-10 range of 2019 August exercises, Jackson has noticeably and cruelly dipped. He’s not running at the same prolific rate. His completion percentages have dipped dramatically (‘19 adjusted completion percentage: QB14; ‘20: QB30). Most diminishingly, his TD percentage isn’t remotely close to the same pace (‘19: 9.0; ‘20: 6.3). Regression signs were abundant, but the dropoff is far greater correction than most anticipated. Barely a QB1 (QB11) in fantasy points per game per Yahoo scoring, he’s left investors out cold and bleeding.

Four times Jackson has failed to crack the 18-point threshold. Week 9 could mark the fifth. Indianapolis, with prized pass rusher and run stuffer Darius Leonard back, is arguably the most underrated defense in the league. Instead of creating havoc on the pocket (No. 32 in blitz percentage), the Colts sit back in coverage, read the offense and react. That style should play well in limiting chunk ground gains from Jackson. This season, they’ve allowed 6.8 pass yards per attempt, 228.4 pass yards per game, 1.4 passing touchdowns per game and the third-fewest fantasy points to QBs. This week, Lamar “The Lame” applies.

Fearless forecast: 206 passing yards, 1 passing touchdown, 2 turnovers, 41 rush yards, 14.3 fantasy points

Jonathan Taylor, RB, Indianapolis Colts

(75%; $6,000)
Matchup: vs. BAL
Vegas line/Total: BAL -3, 44.5

Here are certain developments learned over the past several days that cue repeated usage of puke-faced emojis: 1) Bud Light has a revolting peppermint-flavored hard seltzer for the holiday season and 2) Everything minus Travis Fulgham from Eagles/Cowboys last Sunday night and 3) Frank Reich mouthing “hot hand” and “we believe in all three of our running backs” after the Colts’ Week 8 trashing of Detroit. The running back room in Indy is crowded, and the most trustworthy rusher of the group isn’t the much-hyped rookie from Wisconsin.

Taylor, who is dealing with an ankle injury of unknown severity, is possibly on the outside looking in. When presented with opportunities, he’s floundered. Jordan Wilkins, running with burst and brawn, is the rusher Reich has always wanted to feature. Indy’s run scheme is based on power and after-contact gainage, which the perceived complement has clearly displayed. As Taylor labored (2.10 YAC per attempt, 9.3% missed tackle rate) on his attempts, Wilkins levied devastating body blows, evidenced by his top-10 standing in YAC per attempt (3.35) and missed tackle rate (30.8%). Nyheim Hines, Philip Rivers’ poor man’s Austin Ekeler, will continue to work in a multidimensional capacity, but it’s the Ole Miss product who’s most damning to Taylor.

This week the matchup isn’t particularly appetizing, either. Baltimore has given up a palatable 4.17 yards per carry to RBs, but surrendering just 103.3 total yards per game and three total touchdowns it ranks No. 3 in fewest fantasy points allowed. Calais Campbell and Brandon Williams both rank inside the top-three in run-stop rate. Tally it up — injury, RBBC, matchup — and Taylor deserves pine time even in a bye-heavy week.

Fearless forecast: 11 carries, 32 rushing yards, 3 receptions, 15 receiving yards, 0 touchdowns, 6.2 fantasy points

Todd Gurley, RB, Atlanta Falcons

(96%; $6,200)
Matchup: vs. DEN
Vegas line/Total: ATL -4, 50

Dodging raindrops last Thursday in Carolina, Gurley and his well-chronicled ARTHRITIC KNEE sent admirers into a tizzy. Supplanted often by change-of-pace back Brian Hill, the cherished rusher stood and watched from the sidelines, in a stellar matchup no less. Joe Buck, Troy Aikman and fantasy GMs all contemplated the same question, “What the hell is wrong with Gurley?” Given the short week and his tender knee, rep management was probably the best answer for his unanticipated usage downturn. The extended rest is probably what the doctor ordered, but for the top-10 rusher is far from a slam dunk play.

Because of his galactic red-zone deployment (27.9%, RB3), cash in rate (7 TDs) and slew of friendly matchups, he’s rarely received a “Lames” designation. Giving credit where it’s due, he’s surpassed preconceived notions his power and elusiveness had harshly eroded. His 2.86 YAC per attempt and 20.9 missed tackle percentage are nothing to scoff at. Still, this week, he could underwhelm. His opponent, the Denver Broncos, have yielded 4.28 yards per carry, 94.1 rush yards per game, two rush TDs and the ninth-fewest fantasy points to RBs. LB A.J. Johnson alone has accounted for 19 tackles for loss versus the run.

Fearless forecast: 15 carries, 62 rushing yards, 1 reception, 6 receiving yards, 0 touchdowns, 7.3 fantasy points

A.J. Brown, WR, Tennessee Titans

(94%; $6,600)
Matchup: vs. CHI
Vegas line/Total: TEN -5.5, 46.5

Russell Wilson, Kyler Murray and Brown — What do they all have in common? Each has a storied baseball background. Each chose football. Each is damn good at his picked profession. A modern-day Andre Johnson in terms of physical stature and playing style, Brown has shunned any sophomore slump. When healthy and available, he’s resembled the field-stretching chunk gainer from his stellar rookie campaign. Though his 9.3-yard average depth of target is considerably lower compared to 2019, his 6.04 YAC per reception and WR8 standing in contested catch rate are nothing to scoff at. Most superbly, of his nine red-zone targets, four (on 6 receptions) have gone for touchdowns. Dynamite efficiency. Currently riding a four-game TD streak, he’s developed into quite the consistency king.

Brown, however, hasn’t faced a secondary on par with Chicago’s. The Bears boast arguably the most unbendable pass defense in the league. This season they’ve allowed 6.6 pass yards per attempt, two WR touchdowns and four 70-plus-yard WR performances in eight contests. Overall, they’ve given up the third-fewest fantasy points to the position. Strangely, they rank inside the top-12 in air yards per game allowed, but sizable downfield connections have been infrequent. CB Kyle Fuller, Brown’s presumed dance partner, has tallied a 64.0 passer rating and 0.74 yards per snap against. In other words, it could be TD or bust for the Titan.

Fearless forecast: 4 receptions, 54 receiving yards, 0 touchdowns, 7.4 fantasy points

Amari Cooper, WR, Dallas Cowboys

(77%; $5,600)
Matchup: vs. PIT
Vegas line/Total: PIT -13.5

From Dak Prescott to Andy Dalton to Ben DiNucci to whatever Mike McCarthy trots out Sunday in a matter of three weeks. If you entered a bar and asked for a hazy IPA, only to be denied, then a Pacifico, thwarted again, and settled for a low-dollar domestic beer brewed with treated refuse water, you would understand how Cooper feels. With the Red Rifle caught by COVID-19, derringers Garrett Gilbert or Cooper Rush will man the controls. Good friggin’ lord. Cooper isn’t quite the rollercoaster ride of last season. He’s registered at least six catches and 79 yards in five of seven games and slots top-10 in yards after the catch. Still, his 14.1 red-zone percentage and Dallas’ overall anemic offense portend to more irregularity to come.

On paper, Pittsburgh isn’t a tiger, it’s a formidable, flesh-hungry opponent determined to consume QBs whole. No team applies more heat than the Steelers (37.6% pressure percentage, 44.3% blitz rate). Whether Rush or Gilbert under center, the constant duress is sure to mitigate the team’s overall vertical performance. Airborne success is achievable against Mike Tomlin’s bunch. They have coughed up 7.4 pass yards per attempt and land inside the top-10 in air yards per game allowed. His projected assignment, however, Joe Haden, has been rather unaccommodating (84.1 passer rating, 52.6% catch percentage allowed). Total it up and this week the coaster dips.

Fearless forecast: 5 receptions, 49 receiving yards, 0 touchdowns, 7.4 fantasy points

Bonus lames (over 50% started)

RB: Melvin Gordon, DEN (Line: ATL -4; DK: $5,300) — Le’Veon Bell, flopped. Jimmy Graham dropped an uncomfortable number of passes. And Gordon ran into brick walls. REVENGE GAME backers were repeatedly rejected in Week 8. More concerning for Gordon, Phillip Lindsay, cleared just in the nick of time from concussion protocol, proved to be the more impactful back. Gordon maintained a 36-29 snap edge (14-7 touch differential), but the gap between the two appears to be tightening. The presumed starter will continue to handle the pass-down bulk, but Lindsay, who has steadily powered through arm tackles (3.96 YAC/att), will see a steady diet of early-down action. With Atlanta giving up 5.2 receptions and 45.1 yards receiving yards per game to RBs, Gordon is a decent bet for 4-5 receptions, but the Falcons’ rigidity between the tackles (3.67 YPC to RBs) stunts his total yardage output. In what’s becoming a complicated Denver backfield, circumventing him for Justin Jackson (vs. LV), Damien Harris (at NYJ) and D'Andre Swift (at Min). (FF: 11-30-0-4-22-0, 7.2 fantasy points)

RB: Ezekiel Elliott, DAL (Line: PIT -13.5; DK: $6,600) — The outlook for Zeke is bleak. Earlier this week, this balding nitwit posted a Twitter pole gauging his backers’ feelings about the upcoming week. Of the near 4,000 votes submitted, 46.3% said he was a flex-only option, with 24.1% sticking with the idiotic “Always Start your Studs” theory. Elliott, whose advanced analytics have tumbled from previous years, is a star sleepwalking in Dallas’ offensive nightmare. Yes, the Steelers were gashed by Baltimore’s one-two punch of J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards last week, but the ‘Boys leaky offensive line and trainwreck QB, Gilbert/Rush, are not an apple-to-apples comparison. This season, Pittsburgh has conceded 4.02 yards per carry, 101.3 total yards per game, six total TDs and the sixth-fewest fantasy points to RBs. As discussed above with Cooper, their aggressive pass rush is sure to sour all facets, including the ground game. Zeke, who encountered 8-plus men in the box 52.6% of the time, is sure to face an uncomfortable number of stacked fronts again. (FF: 18-58-2-14-0, 8.2 fantasy points)

WR: Terry McLaurin, WAS (Line: WAS -3.5; DK: $6,100) — A bright spot on a franchise mostly devoid of quality and useful fantasy players, McLaurin has delivered the goods. He’s a dependable WR2 in PPR formats and ranks No. 1 in air yards share at 46.2 percent. If Washington’s QB play wasn’t so inept (No. 4 in unrealized air yards), he would likely be inside the top-10. Off the one-week recharge, he could fall well short of lofty expectations. The Giants, thought to be a defensive laughingstock preseason, are the ones hurling zingers. James Bradberry, McLaurin’s projected foe, is a radiant bright spot on an otherwise starless team. This season, he’s given up a 59.6% catch percentage, 73.2 passer rating and 0.97 yards per snap. He’s notched just two subpar games, but a letdown in Week 9 is certainly plausible. (FF: 5-62-0, 8.7 fantasy points)

TE: Hunter Henry, LAC (Line: LAC -1.5; DK: $4,000) — Family members on different sides of the political spectrum embroiled in a social media feud about the country’s direction. That’s how frigid Henry currently is. Though healthy and enticing a meaningful target share (18.1%), he’s TE28 in fantasy points per game. Bewildering. The answer may lie in his lack of chemistry with Justin Herbert. The rookie QB has locked in on Keenan Allen and Mike Williams, only sporadically tossing frozen ropes at the tight end. Travis Kelce and Rob Gronkowski are the only TEs who’ve reached 26 yards against Vegas this season. Given Henry’s minimized role, it seems unlikely he suddenly rediscovers his TE1 form. (FF: 3-26-0, 4.1 fantasy points)