Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Updated with Monday Night Football as of Tuesday 9:30 am EDT.
Tua Tagovailoa of the Miami Dolphins had a good Week 2 game. It wasn’t a great game, although the Miami offense certainly looked unstoppable at times. Other times, the Patriots defense stopped them. Tagovailoa ended the week with 119 passing DYAR, ranked seventh among the quarterbacks who have played (not including Monday night). His total DYAR drops further because of aborted snaps, but right now let’s talk just about Tagovailoa’s passing performance so far this season.
What stands out is not how good Tagovailoa’s passing performance has been, but rather how much better it has been compared to everyone else. I wrote last week about Tagovailoa’s big Week 1 game. Jordan Love was third on last week’s Quick Reads list for quarterbacks, and he’s fourth this week, so he’s second in passing DYAR so far this season. However, there’s a big gap between Tagovailoa and Love. The gap between the two quarterbacks is the biggest gap between the No. 1 and No. 2 quarterbacks after two weeks in a dozen years, since Tom Brady started the 2011 season like gangbusters.
I went back and looked at the passing stats through two weeks for every season since 2000. Tagovailoa’s current 366 passing DYAR is 13th after two weeks during that time period, but the gap between him and Love is more impressive. Here are the largest Week 2 gaps since 2000. Like our current numbers, these numbers don’t include opponent adjustments because we’re looking at early in the season.
| Biggest Gap Between Top 2 QBs after Week 2, 2000-2023 | |||||||
| Year | No. 1 QB | Team | DYAR | No. 2 QB | Team | DYAR | Gap |
| 2003 | D.Bledsoe | BUF | 362 | T.Maddox | PIT | 166 | 197 |
| 2011 | T.Brady | NE | 491 | R.Fitzpatrick | BUF | 306 | 185 |
| 2001 | B.Griese | DEN | 439 | P.Manning | IND | 263 | 176 |
| 2009 | D.Brees | NO | 374 | M.Ryan | ATL | 238 | 136 |
| 2023 | T.Tagovailoa | MIA | 366 | J.Love | GB | 240 | 126 |
| 2014 | P.Manning | DEN | 304 | M.Stafford | DET | 181 | 123 |
What can the past tell us about Tua Tagovailoa in the future? Obviously, Tagovailoa has a lot of help to get him to the No. 1 rank in passing DYAR for the year. He’s got the Mike McDaniel scheme, he’s got Tyreek Hill, and he’s got Jaylen Waddle (although a concussion may mean that he doesn’t have Waddle, at least in Week 3).
Since 2000, five of the 23 quarterbacks who led the NFL in passing DYAR after Week 2 went on to lead the league. Sixteen of them went on to finish in the top five. The biggest disappointment by far was Drew Bledsoe, who collapsed after a hot start in 2003 and finished just 32nd in passing DYAR that season. (Kelly Holcomb, who led all quarterbacks after two weeks of 2002, didn’t qualify for our rankings because he got injured soon afterwards.)
Three of the quarterbacks who ranked second after Week 2 went on to lead the league in passing DYAR that season. So perhaps our early superstar is actually Jordan Love, headed for a huge breakout season for Green Bay?
Well, he’s been better than expected, but probably not.
| Quarterbacks | |||||||||||
| Rk | Player | Team | CP/AT | Yds | TD | INT | Sacks | Total DYAR |
Pass DYAR |
Rush DYAR |
Opp |
| 1. | Geno Smith | SEA | 33/40 | 328 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 174 | 174 | -1 | DET |
| Smith had 57 DYAR in overtime, where he went 6-of-7 for 69 yards and the game-winning touchdown. | |||||||||||
| 2. | Josh Allen | BUF | 31/37 | 274 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 167 | 163 | 4 | LV |
| Allen’s average depth of target was very low for such a strong game, just 5.0 yards on average. The Raiders gave him the underneath stuff and he took it all day long. Allen was 7-of-8 for 30 yards with two first downs on passes thrown behind the line of scrimmage. | |||||||||||
| 3. | Lamar Jackson | BAL | 24/33 | 237 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 148 | 143 | 4 | CIN |
| Jackson was 4-of-6 for 38 yards and two touchdowns on third downs. | |||||||||||
| 4. | Jordan Love | GB | 14/25 | 151 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 144 | 135 | 9 | ATL |
| Love led all quarterbacks in Week 2 with an average depth of target of 11.3 yards, including DPI plays. He gained 87 yards on two huge DPIs to Romeo Doubs and Dontayvion Wicks. However, Love didn’t complete any deep passes of 16 or more air yards. There were the two DPIs and then four incomplete passes to four different receivers. | |||||||||||
| 5. | Jared Goff | DET | 28/35 | 323 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 139 | 139 | 0 | SEA |
| Goff was 9-of-10 with a sack and two touchdowns for 166 net yards on first downs. Seven of those 11 first-down dropbacks came in the fourth quarter. | |||||||||||
| 6. | Joshua Dobbs | ARI | 21/31 | 228 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 139 | 113 | 26 | NYG |
| Dobbs slowed down in the fourth quarter, completing 3 of 8 passes — two of the incompletes came in desperation at the end of the game — and only moving the chains once. He had a 3-yard pass on third-and-14 and a 5-yarder on third-and-16. | |||||||||||
| 7. | Kirk Cousins | MIN | 31/44 | 364 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 132 | 132 | 0 | PHI |
| Cousins had 113 passing DYAR on third and fourth down, going 8-of-11 for 157 yards and seven conversions, including the deep 62-yard touchdown to Jordan Addison in the third quarter. | |||||||||||
| 8. | Patrick Mahomes | KC | 29/41 | 305 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 122 | 103 | 19 | JAX |
| Mahomes now leads all quarterbacks with 34 rushing DYAR on scrambles this season. He had three scrambles against Jacksonville which each gained at least 10 yards and moved the sticks. | |||||||||||
| 9. | Dak Prescott | DAL | 31/38 | 255 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 116 | 106 | 10 | NYJ |
| 10. | Baker Mayfield | TB | 26/34 | 317 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 107 | 112 | -5 | CHI |
| 11. | Justin Herbert | LAC | 27/41 | 305 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 89 | 96 | -7 | TEN |
| 12. | Tua Tagovailoa | MIA | 21/30 | 249 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 88 | 119 | -30 | NE |
| Tagovailoa is now in last place among all players for rushing DYAR this season, which comes from counting aborted snaps as running plays. Tagovailoa now has four aborted snap fumbles on the season, combining for -62 DYAR. The Dolphins even had an aborted snap last night while trying to kneel out their win. | |||||||||||
| Rk | Player | Team | CP/AT | Yds | TD | INT | Sacks | Total DYAR |
Pass DYAR |
Rush DYAR |
Opp |
| 13. | Brock Purdy | SF | 17/25 | 206 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 85 | 88 | -3 | LAR |
| 14. | Daniel Jones | NYG | 26/37 | 321 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 81 | 54 | 27 | ARI |
| Jones had -88 passing DYAR and -4 rushing DYAR in the first half of this game with 3.1 net yards per pass attempt, then 142 passing DYAR and 32 rushing DYAR in the second half with 11.6 net yards per pass attempt. | |||||||||||
| 15. | Gardner Minshew | IND | 19/23 | 171 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 73 | 85 | -12 | HOU |
| 16. | C.J. Stroud | HOU | 30/45 | 384 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 72 | 91 | -19 | IND |
| Stroud completed 13 of 14 passes up the middle for 189 yards with a touchdown and nine total conversions. He led all quarterbacks this week with 148 DYAR on passes up the middle. (Jordan Love was second at 96 DYAR.) | |||||||||||
| 17. | Desmond Ridder | ATL | 19/32 | 237 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 62 | 53 | 9 | GB |
| 18. | Sam Howell | WAS | 27/39 | 299 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 60 | 56 | 3 | DEN |
| 19. | Anthony Richardson | IND | 6/10 | 56 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 46 | 20 | 26 | HOU |
| Richardson, of course, had touchdown runs of 15 and 18 yards before he got hurt. On his 10 passes, he only had an average depth of target of 1.6 yards downfield. | |||||||||||
| 20. | Ryan Tannehill | TEN | 20/24 | 246 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 41 | 28 | 13 | LAC |
| 21. | Mac Jones | NE | 31/42 | 231 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 24 | 10 | 14 | MIA |
| 22. | Joe Burrow | CIN | 27/41 | 222 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 6 | 2 | BAL |
| Rk | Player | Team | CP/AT | Yds | TD | INT | Sacks | Total DYAR |
Pass DYAR |
Rush DYAR |
Opp |
| 23. | Russell Wilson | DEN | 18/31 | 308 | 3 | 1 | 7 | -4 | -38 | 34 | WAS |
| Wilson was much better on deep passes than shorter passes in 2022 and that has continued into 2023. This week he led all quarterbacks with 128 DYAR on passes of 16 or more air yards, going 5-of-7 for 200 yards on these passes with two touchdowns (including the Hail Mary at the end of the game). However, his DYAR gets clobbered by taking seven sacks against the Commanders. | |||||||||||
| 24. | Jalen Hurts | PHI | 18/23 | 193 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -22 | -22 | 0 | MIN |
| Hurts earned -43 DYAR with 1.6 net yards per pass on first downs. He was 7-for-11 with a sack, but only one of those passes gained more than six yards and none gained more than 10. | |||||||||||
| 25. | Jimmy Garoppolo | LV | 16/24 | 185 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -23 | -21 | -1 | BUF |
| 26. | Matthew Stafford | LAR | 35/54 | 307 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -28 | -31 | 3 | SF |
| Stafford earned 95 passing DYAR in the first half of this game and then fell to -126 DYAR in the second half. He had a net 3.9 yards per attempt with two interceptions after halftime, and the interceptions were not in desperation time: one came with the score tied and the other came down by just a touchdown with five minutes left. Also, Stafford completed only 5 of 13 passes up the middle with only two conversions. (Nine of those attempts came in the fourth quarter.) | |||||||||||
| 27. | Trevor Lawrence | JAX | 22/41 | 216 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -34 | -18 | -17 | KC |
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| MNF | Bryce Young | CAR | 22/33 | 153 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -34 | -44 | 10 | NO |
| MNF | Derek Carr | NO | 21/36 | 228 | 0 | 1 | 4 | -36 | -36 | 0 | CAR |
| MNF | Kenny Pickett | PIT | 15/30 | 221 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -63 | -53 | -10 | CLE |
| MNF | Deshaun Watson | CLE | 22/40 | 235 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -77 | -70 | -7 | PIT |
| 28. | Zach Wilson | NYJ | 12/26 | 170 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -127 | -133 | 6 | DAL |
| Another quarterback with a huge before/after halftime split this week, Wilson had 20 passing DYAR before halftime — the 68-yard touchdown to Garrett Wilson was in the second quarter — and then -153 passing DYAR after halftime. | |||||||||||
| 29. | Justin Fields | CHI | 16/29 | 211 | 1 | 2 | 6 | -136 | -116 | -20 | TB |
| Fields averaged just 1.2 net yards per pass on second down, going 4-of-7 with two long sacks for double-digit losses. Fields has only four runs this year that were not aborted snaps or scrambles, and he only gained yardage on one of those four runs. | |||||||||||
| Five Best Running Backs by DYAR (Total) | ||||||||||||
| Rk | Player | Team | Runs | Rush Yds |
Rush TD |
Rec | Rec Yds |
Rec TD |
Total DYAR |
Rush DYAR |
Rec DYAR |
Opp |
| 1. | D’Andre Swift | PHI | 28 | 175 | 1 | 3/3 | 6 | 0 | 70 | 82 | -11 | MIN |
| Swift had a 75% success rate on his carries on Thursday night, constantly keeping the chains moving. He wasn’t stuffed for zero yards or a loss once. He only had two carries on third down, one of which was a conversion. | ||||||||||||
| 2. | Bijan Robinson | ATL | 19 | 124 | 0 | 4/5 | 48 | 0 | 69 | 42 | 27 | GB |
| He wasn’t quite at Swift’s level, but Robinson had a 68% success rate and only was stuffed for zero yards or a loss on two carries. He had 20 yards on two fourth-and-1 carries. | ||||||||||||
| 3. | Raheem Mostert | MIA | 18 | 121 | 2 | 1/1 | 6 | 0 | 58 | 54 | 4 | NE |
| Mostert had at least three yards on 15 of his 18 carries on Sunday night. | ||||||||||||
| 4. | Brian Robinson | WAS | 18 | 87 | 2 | 2/3 | 42 | 0 | 57 | 35 | 22 | DEN |
| Robinson’s two 21-yard receptions both came on second down. His two carries in the red zone were both touchdowns: one for 15 yards, and one for 2 yards. | ||||||||||||
| 5. | James Cook | BUF | 17 | 123 | 0 | 4/4 | 36 | 0 | 53 | 34 | 19 | LV |
| Cook gained at least 2 yards on 16 of his 17 carries, although only three of his carries moved the sticks including his two longs of 36 and 16 yards. | ||||||||||||
| Five Best Running Backs by DYAR (Rushing) | ||||||||||||
| Rk | Player | Team | Runs | Rush Yds |
Rush TD |
Rec | Rec Yds |
Rec TD |
Total DYAR |
Rush DYAR |
Rec DYAR |
Opp |
| 1. | D’Andre Swift | PHI | 28 | 175 | 1 | 3/3 | 6 | 0 | 70 | 82 | -11 | MIN |
| 2. | Raheem Mostert | MIA | 18 | 121 | 2 | 1/1 | 6 | 0 | 58 | 54 | 4 | NE |
| 3. | Bijan Robinson | ATL | 19 | 124 | 0 | 4/5 | 48 | 0 | 69 | 42 | 27 | GB |
| 4. | Gus Edwards | BAL | 10 | 62 | 1 | 0/0 | 0 | 0 | 37 | 37 | 0 | CIN |
| 5. | Brian Robinson | WAS | 18 | 87 | 2 | 2/3 | 42 | 0 | 57 | 35 | 22 | DEN |
| Worst Running Back by DYAR (Total) | ||||||||||||
| Rk | Player | Team | Runs | Rush Yds |
Rush TD |
Rec | Rec Yds |
Rec TD |
Total DYAR |
Rush DYAR |
Rec DYAR |
Opp |
| MNF | Miles Sanders | CAR | 14 | 43 | 0 | 3/5 | 4 | 0 | -37 | -12 | -25 | NO |
| 1. | Alexander Mattison | MIN | 8 | 28 | 0 | 3/6 | 11 | 0 | -29 | -15 | -14 | PHI |
| The two lowest running back DYARs of the week belonged to Mattison and his old running partner Dalvin Cook (-26 DYAR). Mattison had a 16-yard catch but also one for a loss of five and another for zero yards. He also lost a fumble on a first-quarter carry. | ||||||||||||
| Worst Running Back by DYAR (Rushing) | ||||||||||||
| Rk | Player | Team | Runs | Rush Yds |
Rush TD |
Rec | Rec Yds |
Rec TD |
Total DYAR |
Rush DYAR |
Rec DYAR |
Opp |
| 1. | Josh Jacobs | LV | 9 | -2 | 0 | 5/6 | 51 | 0 | -5 | -35 | 30 | BUF |
| This week, Jacobs was both last place among backs in rushing value and first place among backs in receiving value. On the ground, Jacobs was stuffed for zero yards or a loss on five of his nine carries. As a receiver, Jacobs gained 10 yards on four of five receptions with three first downs, although he was also the target of a third-quarter interception. | ||||||||||||
| Five Best Wide Receivers and Tight Ends by DYAR | |||||||||
| Rk | Player | Team | Rec | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | Total DYAR |
Opp |
| 1. | Nico Collins | HOU | 7 | 9 | 146 | 20.9 | 1 | 68 | IND |
| Collins had five different gains of 20 or more yards — three of those came on third downs — plus an 8-yard touchdown on third-and-6. | |||||||||
| 2. | Mike Evans | TB | 6 | 8 | 171 | 28.5 | 1 | 59 | CHI |
| Evans had two plays with at least 20 yards after the catch. He had only one such play in the entire 2022 season! | |||||||||
| 3. | Marvin Mims | DEN | 2 | 2 | 113 | 56.5 | 1 | 58 | WAS |
| Mims added 6 DYAR with two carries for 10 yards on top of his two bombs: 60 yards (46 air, 14 YAC) on first-and-10 for a first-quarter touchdown and 53 yards (45 air, 8 YAC) on third-and-4 in the second quarter. | |||||||||
| 4. | Keenan Allen | LAC | 8 | 10 | 111 | 13.9 | 2 | 55 | TEN |
| 5. | Gabriel Davis | BUF | 6 | 7 | 92 | 15.3 | 1 | 50 | LV |
| Davis converted fourth-and-goal from the 2 with a touchdown and also had a 40-yard gain on third-and-6. | |||||||||
| Worst Wide Receiver or Tight End by DYAR | |||||||||
| Rk | Player | Team | Rec | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | Total DYAR |
Opp |
| 1. | Zay Jones | JAX | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | -48 | KC |
| Three of Jones’ six incomplete passes came with the Jaguars down by 8 points in the fourth quarter. | |||||||||
Please note that there will not be a Week 3 Quick Reads article on Monday, September 25 due to the Jewish holiday of Yom Kippur. I’ll run all the Week 3 numbers without commentary in an article on Tuesday morning of next week.
