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NOTE: Updated with Monday Night Football at 11am EDT.
Welcome to Quick Reads! For readers who are new to my work and my stats, this is a weekly column where I will talk about the best and worst performances of the week according to my DYAR stats. That’s Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement, the “total” stat compared to DVOA as a “rate” stat. If this all sounds new to you, you can still go back and check out my DVOA explainer article from the preseason.
We give the numbers for all the quarterbacks who played a decent number of snaps. Then we give the top 5 running backs (both total and rushing only) and the bottom running back (same), followed by the top 5 wide receivers and tight ends and then the bottom wide receiver or tight end. Our numbers don’t separate a player from his teammates, so of course, it’s possible that a poor DYAR performance could be related to the players around you. Maybe your receivers dropped a lot of passes (Kadarius Toney, white courtesy phone) or perhaps your quarterback targeted you very badly on a lot of inaccurate passes. These numbers represent a player’s value but are not completely divorced from context.
In the past, this piece appeared on Tuesday morning. This year, I’ll be writing it on Monday afternoon. Come back Tuesday morning for the tables to be updated with Monday Night Football results. (Writing it Monday also means I won’t have comments for every player, just the stuff I find most interesting.)
Another important note about my stats: I do not include opponent adjustments until after Week 4 of the season. Opponent adjustments are an important part of Quick Reads, especially when we get to the end of the season, but early on we don’t have those adjustments. We still don’t know how good or bad these defenses are going to be for the entire year.
That opponent adjustment thing is important when we talk about the biggest quarterback performance of Week 1, which belonged to Tua Tagovailoa of the Miami Dolphins.
You may have seen it somewhere that Tagovailoa’s 466 passing yards were the fourth-highest total for any quarterback in Week 1 ever. He trails only Norm Van Brocklin (with an insane 554 yards against the New York Yanks way back in 1951), Tom Brady (511 vs. Miami in 2011) and Dan Marino (473 yards vs. New England in 1994).
Tagovailoa’s game was not quite as impressive by DYAR, in part because he had to throw 45 passes to get to that huge yardage total. Historically, Tagovailoa doesn’t even make the top 10 Week 1 games by a quarterback since 1981. However, part of why Tagovailoa doesn’t make the list is that it is a list that includes opponent adjustments. If we look at every game since 1981 without opponent adjustments – which is how games would have looked in Quick Reads if I had been doing this every year since 1981 – then Tagovailoa ranks ninth since 1981. He ranks sixth if we only look at passing performance, because a couple of blown snaps knock him down a little bit.
Here’s a look at the top dozen Week 1 games since 1981 by YAR (in other words, without opponent adjustments):
Year | Player | Team | YAR | Pass YAR |
Run YAR |
Cmp | Att | Yds | TD | Int | Sk | Run | Yds | TD | DEF |
2019 | D.Prescott | DAL | 296 | 290 | 7 | 25 | 32 | 405 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 0 | NYG |
2022 | P.Mahomes | KC | 295 | 305 | -10 | 30 | 39 | 360 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 0 | ARI |
2018 | R.Fitzpatrick | TB | 291 | 276 | 15 | 21 | 28 | 417 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 39 | 1 | NO |
1984 | P.Simms | NYG | 286 | 278 | 8 | 23 | 30 | 409 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 22 | 0 | PHI |
2018 | D.Brees | NO | 269 | 269 | 0 | 37 | 45 | 439 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | TB |
2014 | M.Ryan | ATL | 265 | 263 | 2 | 31 | 42 | 448 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 15 | 0 | NO |
1997 | D.Bledsoe | NE | 264 | 265 | 0 | 26 | 39 | 340 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 0 | SD |
2013 | P.Manning | DEN | 262 | 262 | 0 | 27 | 42 | 462 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | BAL |
2023 | T.Tagovailoa | MIA | 240 | 266 | -27 | 28 | 45 | 466 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -2 | 0 | LAC |
1997 | T.Aikman | DAL | 239 | 239 | 0 | 19 | 30 | 295 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | PIT |
2007 | T.Brady | NE | 231 | 229 | 2 | 22 | 28 | 297 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | NYJ |
2001 | B.Griese | DEN | 230 | 224 | 5 | 21 | 29 | 330 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 0 | NYG |
As you can see, we had an even better game… just a year ago! But of course, you kind of expected Patrick Mahomes to go off on the Arizona Cardinals. Phil Simms’ 1984 game is the one that ends up with the most DYAR once oponent adjustments are factored in, as the Eagles ranked 15th in pass defense that season. (Most of these opponents were worse than that.)
Missing from this list are those games with the huge historical yardage totals. Dan Marino’s 1994 game against the Patriots had 193 YAR (he threw a pick and took two sacks) while Brady’s 2011 game with 517 yards was worth 218 YAR.
Does this big Week 1 promise a big year for Tua? Not necessarily. Three of these quarterbacks led the NFL in DYAR in the given year, and most of them were Top 10. But Ryan Fitzpatrick finished the year 15th and Brian Griese was just 20th.
Of course, a big Week 1 may not guarantee big things, but the Mike McDaniel scheme and the presence of Tyreek Hill and Jayden Waddle probably help promise a big year for Tua.
Daniel Jones of the Giants had a Week 1 about as bad as Tua Tagovailoa‘s Week 1 was good. In fact, Jones appears higher on the list of worst Week 1 games. Jones took seven sacks, threw two interceptions, and fumbled the ball twice. He passed for just 104 yards. Here’s a list of the worst Week 1 games by YAR since 1981:
Year | Player | Team | Total YAR | Pass YAR | Run YAR | Cmp | Att | Yds | TD | Int | Sk | Run | Yds | TD | DEF |
2017 | A.Dalton | CIN | -287 | -289 | 2 | 16 | 31 | 170 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 0 | BAL |
2003 | K.Stewart | CHI | -267 | -265 | -2 | 14 | 34 | 95 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 21 | 0 | SF |
1998 | B.Hoying | PHI | -241 | -247 | 6 | 10 | 23 | 63 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 2 | 13 | 0 | SEA |
2012 | B.Weeden | CLE | -241 | -251 | 10 | 12 | 35 | 118 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 25 | 0 | PHI |
2013 | B.Gabbert | JAX | -235 | -231 | -4 | 16 | 35 | 121 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 4 | 16 | 0 | KC |
2023 | D.Jones | NYG | -231 | -213 | -18 | 15 | 28 | 104 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 12 | 41 | 0 | DAL |
2009 | J.Delhomme | CAR | -217 | -223 | 6 | 7 | 17 | 73 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 10 | 0 | PHI |
2005 | D.Carr | HOU | -204 | -210 | 7 | 9 | 21 | 70 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 40 | 1 | BUF |
1986 | M.Malone | PIT | -202 | -189 | -13 | 9 | 27 | 79 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | SEA |
1993 | M.Tomczak | PIT | -195 | -183 | -12 | 4 | 11 | 46 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 | -3 | 0 | SF |
2016 | C.Keenum | LAR | -183 | -184 | 1 | 17 | 35 | 130 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 | SF |
2006 | J.Plummer | DEN | -179 | -179 | 0 | 13 | 26 | 138 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | STL |
Only three of the quarterbacks on this list rebounded to post at least a positive passing DYAR for the season. The best was probably Mark Malone, who ended up 14th in pass DYAR for the 1986 season, his career-best rank. Dalton finished 24th in 2017, and Plummer finished 24th in 2006.
Quarterbacks | |||||||||||
Rk | Player | Team | CP/AT | Yds | TD | INT | Sacks | Total DYAR |
Pass DYAR |
Rush DYAR |
Opp |
1 | Tua Tagovailoa | MIA | 28/45 | 466 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 240 | 266 | -27 | LAC |
Tagovailoa also led the NFL with an average depth of target of 11.6 yards on Sunday. His negative rushing value comes from two aborted snaps; he also converted a second-and-7 with a scramble in the third quarter. | |||||||||||
2 | Matthew Stafford | LAR | 24/38 | 334 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 174 | 178 | -4 | SEA |
Stafford completed 8 of 12 passes on third down, with seven conversions. | |||||||||||
3 | Jordan Love | GB | 15/27 | 245 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 123 | 124 | -1 | CHI |
Love averaged only 5.3 net yards per attempt on first and second downs with -16 DYAR and -24.3% DVOA. On third and fourth down, he had 140 DYAR and 263.0% DVOA (!!!). He completed 8 of 10 passes for 141 yards and two touchdowns on third and fourth down. Love also had a huge gap between his performance before halftime (2 passing DYAR) and after halftime (122 passing DYAR). | |||||||||||
4 | Jared Goff | DET | 22/33 | 253 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 103 | 99 | 4 | KC |
5 | Russell Wilson | DEN | 27/33 | 177 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 100 | 105 | -4 | LV |
Before halftime, Wilson had 131 passing DYAR. He completed 17 of 18 passes with two DPI gains (17 and 5 yards) plus a sack. After halftime, Wilson had -26 passing DYAR, completing 10 of 15 passes with a sack. Only one of those second-half completions gained more than eight yards. | |||||||||||
6 | Jimmy Garoppolo | LV | 20/26 | 200 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 93 | 107 | -14 | DEN |
7 | Mac Jones | NE | 35/54 | 316 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 89 | 80 | 9 | PHI |
Jones led all quarterbacks this week with 62 passing DYAR in the red zone, including three touchdown passes (two to Kendrick Bourne, one to Hunter Henry). Russell Wilson was second at 61 with Trevor Lawrence third at 58. | |||||||||||
8 | Patrick Mahomes | KC | 21/39 | 226 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 86 | 68 | 19 | DET |
Of course, this is not adjusted for dropped passes. Mahomes had 106 passing DYAR in the first half of Thursday night’s game, then -38 passing DYAR in the second half. | |||||||||||
9 | Derek Carr | NO | 23/33 | 305 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 81 | 79 | 2 | TEN |
Surprisingly, Carr was second to Tua Tagovailoa in average depth of target on Sunday, at 11.5 yards. Carr dropped back only three times from a conventional under-center setup, going 1-for-2 with a sack. | |||||||||||
10 | Brock Purdy | SF | 19/29 | 220 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 75 | 66 | 9 | PIT |
11 | Justin Herbert | LAC | 24/33 | 228 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 75 | 53 | 22 | MIA |
Herbert had four conversions with five carries for 18 yards: four scrambles and a quarterback sneak for a touchdown. | |||||||||||
12 | Trevor Lawrence | JAX | 24/32 | 241 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 65 | 67 | -3 | IND |
Rk | Player | Team | CP/AT | Yds | TD | INT | Sacks | Total DYAR |
Pass DYAR |
Rush DYAR |
Opp |
13 | Dak Prescott | DAL | 13/24 | 143 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 61 | 60 | 1 | NYG |
14 | Baker Mayfield | TB | 21/34 | 173 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 47 | 47 | 0 | MIN |
15 | Kirk Cousins | MIN | 33/44 | 344 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 37 | 51 | -14 | TB |
16 | Anthony Richardson | IND | 24/37 | 223 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 26 | 11 | 15 | JAX |
17 | Geno Smith | SEA | 16/26 | 112 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 23 | 21 | 2 | LAR |
18 | Jalen Hurts | PHI | 22/33 | 170 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 15 | -9 | NE |
MNF | Zach Wilson | NYJ | 14/21 | 140 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 1 | 6 | BUF |
19 | Deshaun Watson | CLE | 16/29 | 154 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -7 | -33 | 26 | CIN |
Watson gained 45 yards on the ground with five carries: three scrambles and two designed runs including a 13-yard touchdown on a quarterback draw. | |||||||||||
20 | Justin Fields | CHI | 24/37 | 216 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -13 | -28 | 15 | GB |
Fields had an average depth of target at a league-low 3.1 yards this week and only threw to his new No. 1 receiver, DJ Moore, twice. For the first half it looked like maybe Fields had cleaned up his problems with sacks, but he took three in the second half (for a total of four in the game) including a strip-sack on the line of scrimmage. | |||||||||||
21 | Sam Howell | WAS | 19/31 | 202 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -16 | -33 | 17 | ARI |
22 | Lamar Jackson | BAL | 18/22 | 169 | 0 | 1 | 4 | -16 | -14 | -3 | HOU |
Jackson was dead last this week with -87 DYAR in the red zone, with an interception on third-and-6 from the Houston 16 and then four completions — two of which lost yardage. Further away from the goal line, Jackson gained 43 yards on two DPIs to Odell Beckham Jr. | |||||||||||
MNF | Josh Allen | BUF | 29/40 | 236 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -15 | -10 | -5 | NYJ |
Rk | Player | Team | CP/AT | Yds | TD | INT | Sacks | Total DYAR |
Pass DYAR |
Rush DYAR |
Opp |
23 | C.J. Stroud | HOU | 28/43 | 242 | 0 | 0 | 5 | -31 | -29 | -2 | BAL |
24 | Desmond Ridder | ATL | 15/18 | 115 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -35 | -35 | 0 | CAR |
Ridder had an average depth of target of just 3.5 yards in this game and was successful on just 27% of his pass plays. He threw only five official passes to players designated as wide receivers (four to Mack Hollins and just one to Drake London). | |||||||||||
25 | Kenny Pickett | PIT | 31/45 | 232 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -39 | -39 | 1 | SF |
26 | Joshua Dobbs | ARI | 21/30 | 132 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -66 | -46 | -21 | WAS |
Dobbs lost the ball on an aborted snap in the fourth quarter, plus he had two designed runs which went for a gain of 1 and a loss of 4. | |||||||||||
27 | Ryan Tannehill | TEN | 16/34 | 198 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -78 | -71 | -7 | NO |
28 | Joe Burrow | CIN | 14/31 | 82 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -85 | -85 | 0 | CLE |
Burrow averaged just 2.5 net yards per attempt and had a 24% success rate on pass plays. Only Daniel Jones was lower in both categories. Burrow did not throw a single pass in the red zone all afternoon. His only gain over 12 yards was an 18-yard DPI to Ja’Marr Chase. | |||||||||||
29 | Bryce Young | CAR | 20/38 | 146 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -107 | -90 | -17 | ATL |
30 | Daniel Jones | NYG | 15/28 | 104 | 0 | 2 | 7 | -231 | -213 | -18 | DAL |
Five Best Running Backs by DYAR (Total) | ||||||||||||
Rk | Player | Team | Runs | Rush Yds |
Rush TD |
Rec | Rec Yds |
Rec TD |
Total DYAR |
Rush DYAR |
Rec DYAR |
Opp |
1. | Aaron Jones | GB | 9 | 41 | 1 | 2/4 | 86 | 1 | 69 | 26 | 43 | CHI |
Teammate AJ Dillon was worth -18 DYAR. On first-down runs, Jones had 5 carries for 30 yards while Dillon had 6 carries for 7 yards. | ||||||||||||
2. | Austin Ekeler | LAC | 16 | 117 | 1 | 4/5 | 47 | 0 | 61 | 43 | 18 | MIA |
Nine of Ekeler’s 12 runs on first down gained at least four yards, including a 55-yard scamper in the second quarter. | ||||||||||||
3. | Joshua Kelley | LAC | 16 | 91 | 1 | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 58 | 61 | -4 | MIA |
Kelley got a handoff three times on third down compared to just one for Ekeler. Both players converted all four third-down runs. | ||||||||||||
4. | Nick Chubb | CLE | 18 | 106 | 0 | 4/4 | 21 | 0 | 51 | 45 | 7 | CIN |
5. | Tyler Allgeier | ATL | 15 | 75 | 2 | 3/3 | 19 | 0 | 48 | 37 | 10 | CAR |
Both of Allgeier’s touchdowns came on second down from the Carolina 3. |
Five Best Running Backs by DYAR (Rushing) | ||||||||||||
Rk | Player | Team | Runs | Rush Yds |
Rush TD |
Rec | Rec Yds |
Rec TD |
Total DYAR |
Rush DYAR |
Rec DYAR |
Opp |
1. | Joshua Kelley | LAC | 16 | 91 | 1 | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 58 | 61 | -4 | MIA |
2. | Christian McCaffrey | SF | 22 | 152 | 1 | 3/5 | 17 | 0 | 23 | 48 | -25 | PIT |
McCaffrey’s receiving DYAR is surprisingly low because he fumbled on an early 7-yard reception and then was targeted on an incomplete third-and-2 later in the game. | ||||||||||||
3. | Nick Chubb | CLE | 18 | 106 | 0 | 4/4 | 21 | 0 | 51 | 45 | 7 | CIN |
4. | Austin Ekeler | LAC | 16 | 117 | 1 | 4/5 | 47 | 0 | 61 | 43 | 18 | MIA |
5. | Tony Pollard | DAL | 14 | 70 | 2 | 2/3 | 12 | 0 | 18 | 39 | -21 | NYG |
Worst Running Back by DYAR (Total) | ||||||||||||
Rk | Player | Team | Runs | Rush Yds |
Rush TD |
Rec | Rec Yds |
Rec TD |
Total DYAR |
Rush DYAR |
Rec DYAR |
Opp |
1. | Deon Jackson | IND | 13 | 14 | 0 | 5/6 | 14 | 0 | -66 | -36 | -30 | JAX |
Jackson had two lost fumbles, one on a catch and one on a carry. He had catches for -3 and -4 yards and was stuffed for a loss or no gain on 5 of 13 carries. Four more went for just 1 yard. Opponent adjustments will change the DYAR of this one as the season moves forward, but as of now, this ranks as the second-lowest DYAR for any running back in a Week 1 game since 1981. The only game lower: Sidney Thornton of the 1981 Steelers against Kansas City. He had six carries for 6 yards and one catch for 1 yard, with a remarkable four fumbles (two lost, two recovered) in a 37-33 loss. That earned -85 DYAR. |
Worst Running Back by DYAR (Rushing) | ||||||||||||
Rk | Player | Team | Runs | Rush Yds |
Rush TD |
Rec | Rec Yds |
Rec TD |
Total DYAR |
Rush DYAR |
Rec DYAR |
Opp |
1. | Cam Akers | LAR | 22 | 29 | 1 | 0/0 | 0 | 0 | -37 | -37 | 0 | SEA |
Akers lost yardage on five carries, was stuffed at the line on five carries, and got only a yard on four more (although one of those was a touchdown on fourth-and-goal from the 1). |
Five Best Wide Receivers and Tight Ends by DYAR | |||||||||
Rk | Player | Team | Rec | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | Total DYAR |
Opp |
1. | Brandon Aiyuk | SF | 8 | 8 | 129 | 16.1 | 2 | 97 | PIT |
Aiyuk had first downs (or touchdowns) on all eight of his catches, and the only one that went for less than 10 yards was an 8-yard touchdown early in the game. He converted third-and-long twice. | |||||||||
2. | Tyreek Hill | MIA | 11 | 15 | 215 | 19.5 | 2 | 88 | LAC |
Obviously some huge catches here, including five of 28 yards or more. Hill comes in behind Aiyuk because of a couple incomplete passes and a five-yard loss on first-and-10 from the Chargers 30 in the fourth quarter. | |||||||||
3. | Rashid Shaheed | NO | 5 | 6 | 89 | 17.8 | 1 | 54 | TEN |
In the second half of a close game, Shaheed converted third-and-7 (with a 19-yard touchdown) and third-and-6 (with a deep 41-yard reception). | |||||||||
4. | Tutu Atwell | LAR | 6 | 8 | 119 | 19.8 | 0 | 52 | SEA |
Atwell had first downs on all six of his catches, including a 44-yarder in the third quarter. | |||||||||
5. | Justin Jefferson | MIN | 9 | 12 | 150 | 16.7 | 0 | 49 | TB |
Worst Wide Receiver or Tight End by DYAR | |||||||||
Rk | Player | Team | Rec | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | Total DYAR |
Opp |
1. | Tee Higgins | CIN | 0 | 8 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | -58 | CLE |
Higgins is the first receiver to catch zero balls on eight or more targets since Chris Chambers went 0-for-10 in Week 15 of 2006. |