Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
There’s been a lot of discourse about NFL contract incentives and statistical milestones on X lately as the fantasy football and betting communities gear up for the regular season finale, when many teams rest starters or give others a shot to have a bigger role.
Here, we’ll take a look at which players are chasing certain incentives and milestones in Week 18. Remember, there are multiple schools of thought with how this impacts a player’s fantasy value. Some organizations (and teammates) will want to reward their players by pushing them toward a milestone. Other organizations may not be so eager to pay out bonus money.
Use your best judgment when determining if each of the following data points will have a positive or negative (or neither) impact on a player’s Week 18 production.
Week 18 Statistical Milestones Players Might Be Chasing
Najee Harris needs 77 rushing yards to reach 1,000 for the season. He averages 57.7 rushing yards per game for the year but 77.7 with Mason Rudolph in the starting lineup, and he should get the opportunity to run against the Ravens’ second unit for much of the game in Week 18.
David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs need 25 and 85 rushing yards, respectively, to become the eighth teammate duo in NFL history to rush for 1,000 yards each. Montgomery has eclipsed 25 yards in every game that he’s started and finished, but Gibbs has only surpassed 85 yards twice on the season.
Breece Hall needs 105 scrimmage yards to reach 1,500 on the season. Hall averages 87 scrimmage yards per game and has had at least 105 in five games, including each of his last two and three of his last four.
De’Von Achane needs 64 scrimmage yards to reach 1,000 for the season. He’s topped that number in six of his 10 games this season, and he had 137 yards last week without Raheem Mostert (knee, ankle) in the lineup.
Saquon Barkley needs 84 rushing yards to capture his fourth 1,000-yard rushing season. He’s averaging 70 rushing yards per game this season and against the Eagles for his entire career. He had 23 carries for 80 yards in a matchup with Philadelphia earlier this season.
Tony Pollard needs 65 rushing yards to register back-to-back 1,000-yard rushing seasons. He averages just 58 yards per game for the season but had arguably his best performance against the Commanders back in Week 12 with 13 attempts for 79 yards.
Amon-Ra St. Brown needs 129 receiving yards to eclipse 1,500 on the year. He averages 86 yards per game (99 at home), and he’s topped this number just once although he’s topped 100 yards eight times. He had 106 yards on 14 targets against Minnesota on Christmas Eve.
A.J. Brown is 50 receiving yards away from setting a new career-high and 53 away from eclipsing 1,500 yards. Brown has had 53 yards in all but three games this season and had 80 two weeks ago against the Giants.
George Pickens needs 60 receiving yards to reach 1,200 for the season. He averages 71 per game for the entire year but a whopping 124 per game with Mason Rudolph as the starter. It’s been feast or famine, as he’s topped 100 yards five times but gone under 60 nine times.
Garrett Wilson needs seven receptions to reach 100 for the season. He’s had at least seven receptions eight times this year but only had five in his lone matchup with the Patriots.
Deebo Samuel needs just four rushing yards to eclipse 1,000 for his career. Samuel has eclipsed that number 11 times this season including a 38-yard performance against the Rams in Week 2. He averages 19 rushing yards per game against Los Angeles for his career.
Dak Prescott needs 263 passing yards to reach 4,500 for the season. He threw for 331 yards on just 32 attempts earlier this season against the Commanders.
Baker Mayfield needs 93 passing yards and two touchdowns to obtain his first 4,000-yard season and his first 30 touchdown season. He’s had 93 yards in every game and multiple touchdowns in 10 games this season.
C.J. Stroud needs 156 passing yards to become the fifth rookie quarterback to ever throw for 4,000 yards. Stroud has topped that number in all but two games this season, and he had 384 yards against the Colts in Week 2.
Jalen Hurts needs 197 passing yards to register his first 4,000-yard season. Hurts averages 238 yards per game but has thrown for less than 200 yards in three of his last four games. The lone game in which he did, he threw for 301 yards against the Giants.
Players Going After Single-Season and Franchise Records in Week 18
Bijan Robinson is 88 rushing yards away from breaking teammate Tyler Allgeier’s Falcons record of 1,035. Robinson has posted 90-plus rushing yards four times this season, including once against the Saints in Week 12.
De’Von Achane needs two total touchdowns to break the record for most touchdowns by a rookie in Dolphins franchise history. He’s averaging one touchdown per game, and he scored one through the air last week in Raheem Mostert’s absence.
Puka Nacua needs four receptions and 29 receiving yards to break the all-time rookie records for receptions and receiving yards. He’s topped each of those numbers in all but two games, and he had 15 catches for 147 yards against the 49ers in Week 2.
Mike Evans needs one touchdown to tie and two touchdowns to break his own Tampa Bay Buccaneers franchise record for touchdown receptions in a single season. Evans has scored in 11 different games this season and scored multiple times twice.
Tyreek Hill needs 247 receiving yards to break Calvin Johnson’s record for most receiving yards in a single season. He hasn’t reached this number in a game this season, but he did have 215 yards in the season opener. Hill only caught three balls for 58 yards against the Bills in Week 4.
DJ Moore needs 10 receptions to break Brandon Marshall’s Bears record of 101 receptions in a single season.
2023 NFL Contract Incentives for Week 18
Odell Beckham needs five receptions for $250k.
Odell Beckham needs two touchdowns for $500k.
Austin Ekeler needs 110 scrimmage yards for $100k.
DeAndre Hopkins needs 49 receiving yards for $1M.
DeAndre Hopkins needs seven receptions for $250k.
Dalton Schultz needs four receptions for $250k and six receptions for an additional $250k.
Alexander Mattison needs 125 rushing yards for $650k.
Devin Singletary needs 165 scrimmage yards for $125k.
